Common RAS criticisms
"The lines move too fast and are impossible to get."This is the most common criticism of the RAS service and one we do not shy away from. Let us be clear: the service is difficult to follow. We have made plenty of changes to our release process through the years, including recent changes that have been widely praised by clients. And yet, it remains a challenge to get our release lines, and will always be a challenge. However, it can be done, and is far from impossible as some suggest. Our own polling finds that the majority of our customers succeed in getting the release line "most of the time" or "all of the time." But it will likely require trial and error with different outs and processes, especially for new clients. We would suggest that any service where line movement is not an issue is likely an unsuccessful one.
"If RAS truly won, they wouldn't sell picks."The service is an asset that we have cultivated for more than 20 years. It remains in high demand. Expanded legalization of sports betting could provide scaling opportunities that didn't exist previously. There are other unseen benefits to operating a service. RAS's visibility has led to many networking opportunities and has helped us identify, recruit and retain talent. As a result, our team today is the biggest and best it's ever been. Also, our releases represent less than 10 percent of our overall play volume. If we released every play we have, the service would be impossible for anyone to follow and would be unsustainable. Our goal is to release the best possible plays we can at a reasonable volume that works best for the most customers. We've been successful at finding the proper balance for many years even as markets have evolved and become more difficult to beat.
"RAS only beats college basketball totals."Much of our notoriety came during a five-year stretch beginning in 2007 when we crushed what was then a fairly easy college hoops totals market. Our critics pointed to that market as the only thing we could beat. In 2012, due to a lacking totals market, we shifted our focus to college hoops sides. We proceeded to go 90-52 for +35.3 units on sides alone that year. Meanwhile, our college football totals (58.9% in last decade across 450+ plays) actually have outperformed our college basketball totals (56.9% on 1,300+ plays). When we recently pivoted to primarily a 2nd half model in college sports, some critics again predicted our demise. We've responded by going 150-90 (62.50%) on 2nd half plays over the past two years. (Now the new criticism is that we can only beat 2nd halves.) When we announced an NFL preseason service prior to the 2017 season, we again were doubted for taking on a new market. But the preseason service has gone 36-18 (66%) in the two years we've offered it. At every turn, we've evolved, gotten better and continue to win at extraordinarily high win rates. We remain considerable favorites to win in every market we compete in.
"The cost of the service is too high."With many sites charging anywhere from $500 to $1,500 for a single sport season to $6,000 for yearly multi-sport services, the current cost of the RAS service is very competitive within the industry. It is also reflective of the long-term success that we've had. Due to line movement, RAS releases have no shelf life, can't be marketed after release or serviced to a wide audience. In fact, for many years we've had several customers advocate for a higher cost as a way of limiting competition for the lines. In 2017, we began limiting the service to 100 active customers and intend to continue this policy going forward. As always, if at any time you decide the service is not for you, we offer a no-questions-asked, pro-rated refund.
"RAS closing line value is meaningless."Lines move for two main reasons: reputation of a bettor and/or amount of money being bet. In either case, the line move is valid and factored into the closing line. Now, there may be short-term false positives. There could be a whale just betting huge amounts on random games. Or there could be a handicapper/bettor with a lot of followers who is hyped from short-term success. In all cases, the market will correct itself over time. The whale will run out of money and/or the book will stop adjusting to his/her bets, and the followers of the hyped handicapper will stop when they figure out he/she isn't a long-term winner. Regardless of why a line moved, there is always ample opportunity for influential bettors to correct a line before the game starts. That is why the closing line is always the most accurate. It is true that RAS releases create almost immediate steam, and have profound influence on the market given our reputation and amount of money being bet. But the idea that our closing line value is entirely self-made, manufactured or meaningless is entirely wrong. As recently as 2016, we had zero or minus-CLV on 11 of 50 full-game CFB releases. Since all 50 plays steamed after release, that means someone in the market liked the other side at the new price and bet accordingly. Being validated and/or not faded by other winning bettors is what CLV is all about, and our influence in the market has been well earned from years of high-level success, no different than other elite bettors in the market.
"The service isn't for me because ____."Our service model is an imperfect one, and as hard as we try, we'll never be able to please everyone. This is why we let anyone cancel at any time for any reason — no questions asked. There are plenty of reasons why the RAS service might not work for you, the prospective buyer. Some of those reasons are addressed above and others are not. For example, some past customers weren't betting enough per game to justify the cost of service. We advised them to not subscribe for this reason. Others have been unable to secure the release line consistently enough, often due to insufficient outs. While there are plenty of seasons where you'd win following our service at worse lines, there are other seasons where you most certainly would not; most recently in 2014-15, when we finished +7.45 units on a win rate of just 52.7%. Others have determined they were unable to follow the service due to random release times and 2nd half plays that come with very little warning. All of these factors should be reviewed before considering a subscription. But it should be noted, our customer retention is very high, a strong indicator that those who do subscribe continue to approve of the value we provide.
Please do not hesitate to contact us with any questions or comments about the service.