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October 4 Sheet

Maryland at West Virginia (-3) - 9:00am Pacific - Saturday
Fans in Morgantown were excited last year to have former Clemson offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez take over as head coach. He promised to bring an exciting multidimensional offense that would score lots of points. Unfortunately, he only had 4 returning starters on offense and did not have the personnel or the time needed to implement his new system successfully. They have come a long way since then and are now in the second year of the system. In Rasheed Marshall, Rodriguez now has a Woody Dantzler type QB to run his offense just like he did at Clemson when they averaged 34.7 ppg in his final year in 2000. Marshall has passed for 604 yards and ran for another 225 with for a total of 7 touchdowns and most importantly zero interceptions. He is a good looking young QB that will thrive in this system.

Rodriguez also has something here that he never had at Clemson, and that is a "super" back in senior Avon Cobourne. Seems like this guy graduated two years ago, but trust me he is still around. He has rushed for 638 yards already this season and is now over 4,000 yards for his career. Receivers Miquelle Henderson (17 catches, 245 yards this season) and Phil Braxton (recently returned from injury) are both solid playmakers. The offensive line has been doing a great job paving the way for Cobourne & company to average 4.6ypc vs Wisconsin, 6.0ypc vs Cincinnati, and 8.6ypc vs East Carolina while only allowing 3 sacks. West Virginia leads the nation in rushing yards per game and Cobourne leads all running backs in rushing yards per game!

The Mountaineers appear to be getting better every week. Their only loss of the season came at Wisconsin in which they played one bad quarter giving up 27 unanswered 2nd quarter points to the Badgers. They still outrushed Wisconsin for the game and outscored them 14-0 in the 2nd half. They bounced back nicely from that loss and got a quality road win at Cincinnati. They drew out to a 35-17 lead in the 4th quarter before giving up two late TD's for a somewhat misleading 35-32 final score. WVU rushed for 334 yards against the Bearcat defense. Following a BYE week and playing their first home game in a month they completely demoralized East Carolina with 536 rushing yards last week in a dominating 37-17 performance that could have been much worse. The West Virginia defense is in good shape. The unit is predicated on speed and they have a lot of it. Junior MLB Grant Wiley (98 tackles in just 6 games last year) is the star. They rank 23rd in the country against the run (3.11ypc) and 34th in total defense. Maryland ranks 48th against the run and 33rd in total defense but those numbers are partially skewed by their three cupcake games.

Maryland comes into this game off of two noncompetitive wins over Eastern Michigan and Wofford. In their only two competitive games this year (Notre Dame & Florida State) they are 0-2 and have been outscored a combined 59-10. Last year Maryland's season could not have gone any better as they finished with a +18 turnover ratio and 10-1 regular season ATS record. This year the magic is gone and the heart and sole of the team are gone. On offense the team is breaking in a new QB, lost their top WR, and are having to make due without star RB Perry who is still out with an injury and will probably end up redshirting. On defense the Terps lost 7 of their top 9 tacklers from last year. The team really seems to be lacking confidence and I do not believe they are capable of a quality road win.

Friedgen is now 12-4 ATS as Maryland head coach but is just 1-3 ATS away from home in an underdog role. The Terps have not played on artificial turf in 26 games when they lost here 30-17 in 2000. This is a much bigger rivalry than most people realize. The home team has gone 5-1-1 ATS in the series the last seven years. Last year WVU outgained Maryland 430-to-373 but were killed by -6 turnovers in a 12 point loss at College Park. Today they get revenge. I really like the positive momentum I am seeing exuberated from the Mountaineers. They are doing a lot of things right and should notch a convincing win here.

West Virginia  1 UNIT

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