Return to Previous Week Page

August 30 Sheet

Wisconsin (-4) at UNLV - Saturday - 5:45pm Pacific
The Badgers two point season opening win over Fresno State last week was much better than looked. Wisconsin is notorious for playing poorly in season openers as they are now 1-7 ATS in the first game of the season since 1995. However, they are 3-1 ATS the last four seasons in their second game. Not only does Wisconsin benefit from having already played a game, but by playing on a Friday they had an extra day to prepare for this game.

Wisconsin features one of the best if not the best offensive line in the country. It returns all five starters from last year and consists of at least two, but probably three future 1st round NFL draft picks. They ran the ball with ease in their season opener against a pretty quick Fresno defense that is similar in talent to UNLV. Star sophomore RB Anthony Davis (1st team Big 10 last year) ran for 186 yards and 5.1 yards per carry. It almost is not fair to have such a talented, small, and speedy back run behind this giant offensive line. As I mentioned in yesterday's analysis, the Badgers were too conservative and predictable with their passing game. Star WR Lee Evans is not in the lineup and the starting receivers are talented but inexperienced. That combined with first game jitters made for an ineffective pass attack in the early going, but as time wore on QB Bollinger (30 career starts, 23-7 as a starter) looked more and more comfortable as did his young receivers. I do not think this offense played near its full potential in the opener. As I also touched on yesterday they were just 4 of 16 on third down conversions, but still held a 25 to 15 edge in first downs. Once this offense is clicking on all cylinders it will put up a lot of points. I look for them to show marked improvement from game one to game two.

The big question mark coming into the season was the Badger defense. Nine new starters from last year, but two did have prior starting experience. All four defensive line starters are new, but head coach Alvarez said before the season that it could be his best ever defensive line. Although they did not register any sacks, they were great against the run, limiting the Bulldogs to 34 yards on 19 carries (1.8 yards per carry). This was accomplished vs a huge Fresno offensive line that returned 4 starters. The linebackers were fairly solid, and the secondary was MUCH improved from last year. Walk-on starting safety Jim Leonhard proved to be a difference maker in his first career start. He had two interceptions and broke up the last pass of Fresno's final possession. He appeared to be both a fan and player favorite who has emerged to be a leader on this defense. Amazingly, he also returns punts. Clearly, with all of the new players this unit has every right to show even more improvement this week with a game under their belts.

UNLV is coming off a 4-7 season and is returning 6 starters on each side of the ball. They are expecting much improved play from highly touted senior QB Jason Thomas. He was a "heisman candidate" at the start of last season but only completed 42.8% of his passes and had more interceptions than touchdowns. He really looked bad throwing the ball more often than not. This year John Robinson brought in a QB coach to work with Thomas on his footwork and delivery, so improvement is expected. I still think he will be more of a threat running with the football than he is passing it. He also has a deep group of running backs to hand the ball off to. However, the Rebels have to replace 4 starters from last years offensive line that included a 4 year starter, a 3 year starter, and two 2 year starters. Without good offensive line play, it will be difficult for the Rebels to utilize their strengths.

On defense UNLV has some big shoes to fill. They lose two players on their defensive line who were taken in the NFL draft. They also lose two players from their secondary who were drafted: conference defensive player of the year CB Kevin Thomas (7 interceptions last year) and 1st team MWC safety Sam Brandon (led team with 99 tackles). Their defensive line is said to have no depth, and they have to play at least the first four games of the season without their best LB Ryan Claridge (led all returnees with 71 tackles and 8 for loss last year) who is injured. I just do not see UNLV being too much of an improved team on either side of the ball this year.

Two Wisconsin assistant coaches return to their old stomping grounds today. Most notable is QB's coach Jeff Horton who served as head coach at UNLV from 1994-1999. Horton worked hard building the program from scratch and probably was bitter when he was fired three years ago. You have to be kidding yourself if you do not think he wants to win this game badly. RB's coach Brian White also coached with Horton at UNLV.

UNLV had to limit their season ticket sales to Nevada residents only this year or else Wisconsin fans may have bought them all. They are said to be buying tickets by the thousands (great excuse to take a trip to Vegas) and it is speculated that their will be more Wisconsin fans than UNLV fans in attendance.

Wisconsin is 6-2 ATS on grass the past three seasons. UNLV is just 4-11 ATS as a home dog since 1997. Last year Wisconsin tried to become a little more of a quick strike offense. As a result their time of possession numbers were way low and the defense paid the price for it. This year they are back to their old ways as evidenced by their 40 minute to 20 minute time of possession edge in the season opener. Wisconsin has a very good football team this year. This week they will convert more of those third downs and put more points on the board. The rejuvenated defense will continue to make strides as well. Give the points.

Wisconsin  1 UNIT

Return to Previous Week Page

Live Chat & Posting Forum for Sports Bettors: BettingChat.com - BettingTalk.com

COLLEGE SPORTS BETTING INFORMATION NETWORK
INFOWINS.COM

DO YOU HAVE INFORMATION TO SHARE ON YOUR FAVORITE COLLEGE TEAM?

Apply to become a contributor at INFOWIN$ and get the most valuable, comprehensive, and timely college sports handicapping information available anywhere!  Click here to visit.