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November 15 Sheet

Washington at Oregon (-6.5) - 12:30pm Pacific
Always feel comfortable playing on such a class program as Oregon. It is amazing what Mike Bellotti has done here. The Ducks have averaged 9.5 wins a season since 1998 and with a bowl game this year should win 9 or 10 again. Granted, the Ducks are not the dominant team they were last season, but they are still very good. They head into this game with a 7-3 record. All three losses came vs Pac-10 teams currently 1st, 2nd, & 3rd in the conference standings. They were competitve in each loss leading USC 19-14 at half-time, leading Arizona State by 21 in the 2nd half, and leading Washington State by 1 last week in the 4th quarter.

The Ducks weakness this year has not been a secret. They are just giving up too many yards. They rank 75th in the nation in total defense and a dismal 114th in pass defense. However, they are not quite as bad in the more important pass efficiency defense (81st, Washington is 84th). Keep in mind that seven teams from the Pac-10 are in the top 50 in total offense. The Oregon defense is not THAT bad, they just have faced a lot of good offense. This is proven by the fact that six Pac-10 teams rank 94th or worse in pass defense, including Washington who checks in at 108th. In fact, I would argue that Washington's defense has been even worse than Oregon's. In Pac-10 play, Washington has given up 2.3 more points per game than Oregon. That is despite getting to play UCLA with their backup QB, and not yet playing Washington State, the conferences best offense.

Offensively, Washington is ranked 13th in the country in total offense while Oregon is ranked 40th. These stats could not be anymore misleading. Washington tallied up most of their yardage early in the season vs inferior opponents. In Pac-10 games, Oregon is averaging 6.3 more points per game and 11 more total yards per game than Washington. The Huskies weakness all year has been lack of a running game. They rank 113th in the country in rushing offense. In Pac-10 play they have been even worse, rushing for just 44.5 yards per game and 1.39 yards per carry! They have shown zero improvement in this area from week to week. This hurts the offense in so many ways. They face more 2nd & 3rd and longs, they have difficulty converting in short yardage situations, and one dimensional offenses are much easier to defend.

The Oregon offense is much more balanced with super RB Onterrio Smith already well over 1,000 yards this season. Junior QB Jason Fife (21 TD's, 6 INT's 143.6 QB rating) has filled in for the departed Joey Harrington as well as anyone could in their first year starting. Forecast calls for 40% chance of showers which would also favor the team who can run the ball.

These teams do not like each other. They have not played in two years but trash talking has come from both sides. While Oregon is continuing its winning ways, Washington is clearly in a down year. The Huskies have won 5 games this year, but only one was vs a team with a winning record. That was vs Oregon State last week at home in which they needed 5 interceptions (2 runback for TD's) and two Beaver QB injuries to secure a 12 point win. The combined record of the other four teams they have defeated is 12-30. Earlier in the year, UW was all out to hold off last place Arizona, needing a late TD drive to win. While Oregon has been competitive vs the Pac-10's best teams, Washington was beaten soundly by both USC & Arizona State, never seeing the lead in either game. As mentioned earlier they have not faced WSU yet. Huskies are 0-3 on the road this year and 2-5 ATS last seven as a road dog. Ducks are 3-1 ATS off a straight up loss since 2000. One score is not enough to separate these two teams in Ducks home finale.

Oregon 1 UNIT

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