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October 18 Sheet

Washington (+8) at USC - 12:30pm Pacific
Huskies are 30-12 straight up under Neuheisel and rarely are a dog of this many points. I firmly believe that Washington has one of the most potent offenses in the country (480.3 yards per game leads the Pac-10). They have scored at least 27 points or more in every game this season, including 29 in a game at Michigan showing they can score vs quality opponents and play well on the road.

Right now I have to call junior Cody Pickett the best QB in the Pac-10. He comes into this game with a 152.09 QB rating. He has completed 66.9% of his passes with a 13:4 touchdown to interception ratio. He already has 2251 passing yards, 357 more than any other in the conference. He has a great cast of receivers with super sophomore Reggie Williams (655 rec yards, 17.2ypc), senior Paul Arnold, 6th year senior Patrick Reddick, and senior TE Kevin Ware. The only knock on this offense has been the running game. Washington ranks 2nd to last in the conference in rushing yardage. Starting RB Rich Alexis only had one carry vs Cal two weeks ago while nursing an injury but had 23 carries last week vs Arizona. He will be 100% this week. Meanwhile, Washington's OL was given a boost by the return of senior starting RG Elliot Zajac two weeks ago, this will be his third consecutive start. If they were to get any sort of running game going, this offense would be next to impossible to stop. Washington punted only one time the entire game last week vs Arizona and they are converting 53.6% of their third down tries (tops in conference). USC by contrast is only converting 36.4% if their third down opportunities.

After a strong start to the season, the Trojans may have hit a wall. Both offensively & defensively. In the first three games of the season, QB Carson Palmer threw just two interceptions and was sacked just three times vs Auburn, Colorado, and Kansas State. But since Pac-10 play has begun, Palmer has thrown 4 interceptions and been sacked 9 times in the same number of games. The Trojans have to deal with some injuries and inexperience on their offensive line. Four year starter RG Zach Wilson & two year starter LT Jacob Rogers are out this week. Top WR Kareem Kelly is "?" with an ankle injury. Advantage Huskies.

On defense the Trojans suffered a big blow in losing defensive tackle Shaun Cody (freshman All-American last year) to injury for the season last week. Cody was the star of the defensive line and often commanded double teams which enabled the rest of the defense to make plays. USC is already playing without its two projected starting CB's to start the season and All-American safety Troy Polamalu is still nursing a high ankle sprain (generously listed as probable). Trojans fell behind 21-3 to Cal last week before pulling out a 30-28 win with help of a gift TD from the referees.

Washington's defense has not played very well all season, but one thing they can do is stop the run (1st in Pac-10). If they come with a little more intensity this week I believe they will do fine. This is a big game for the Huskies as they try to turn around what has been a disappointing season so far. A win here would put them right back in hunt for the Pac-10 title. USC is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite under Carroll and 4-13 ATS as a home favorite since 1999. The dog has gone 12-3-1 ATS in this series. Huskies offense is the difference. Take the points and expect a close game.

Washington  1 UNIT

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