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October 25 Sheet

North Carolina at Wake Forest (-5.5) - 9:00am Pacific
Anyone who has seen Wake Forest play this season knows how good of a football team they are. They should be no secret by now and it surprising that we are still finding value with them. They are just 4-4 on the season but if you rescored their games based on yardage and turnovers they would be 7-1, with the only loss being at NC State. They own road wins at Purdue & at Georgia Tech and almost certainly would have won at Clemson last week if not for 5 second half turnovers & 14 penalties. They outgained Clemson 523 to 280!

The Deacons have a veteran offense with 8 starters returned from last season. They have seven seniors and three juniors starting on offense. Wake runs a very unique style of offense with misdirection plays, counter plays, sprint outs, reverses and fakes of all of the above. At the same time they are very rugged & physical. They currently rank 10th in the country with 249.9 rushing yards per game. This does not bode well for a UNC defensive unit that ranks 108th in the country in run defense. The Tar Heels were already decimated on their defensive line and things got worse when they lost starter Will Chapman to a wrist injury indefinitely last week. UNC now has 2 freshman & 2 sophomores starting on the defensive line. Starting LB Clarence Gaddy is also listed as doubtful with a concussion. UNC only has one upperclassmen in their entire starting front seven. This will be definitely be a learning experience for them.

The UNC offense will be without QB Darian Durant (thumb injury, out for season) as Florida transfer CJ Stephens will make his first start. Stephens has played in three games this season. He went 4-for-9 in season opener vs Miami-Ohio (Loss), 1-for-6 vs Texas (Loss), and 9-for-15 vs Virginia last week (Loss). It should be noted that most of his success last week came after the game was out of reach. His first two series were both three and out and he looked awful when the outcome of the game was still in question.

Wake's offense uncharacteristically turned the ball over 5 times last week at Clemson. They had only committed 5 turnovers all season prior to that game. QB McPherson threw three interceptions in the game after throwing 159 passes in a row without one. This is a ball control type of offense and they will be sure to get back on track today vs a dreadful UNC defense. They are too well coached to shoot themselves in the foot in back to back games. Tar Heels gave up 37 unanswered second half points to UVA last week after leading 21-0 at half-time. Quite a devastating loss for a young team to attempt to overcome.

WF Head coach Jim Grobe did a terrific job with a horrible Ohio program and now is doing the same here. Grobe is 9-4 ATS as a home favorite in his last 4+ seasons as a head coach. Wake is 8-4 ATS in ACC games and 6-2 ATS after as straight up loss since Grobe took over. Wake has an incentive hosting instate rival and having bowl hopes still very much alive. Wake senior laden offense will not be stopped by youthful UNC defense. Maybe after today bettors and oddsmakers will take more notice of the Demon Deacons.

Wake Forest  2 UNITS

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