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September 27 Sheet

Oregon State at USC (-3.5) - Saturday - 3:30pm Pacific
Another second year head coach in the spotlight here. Pete Carroll is doing a fine job. I really think this is the year that USC pulls itself out from the shadows of expectation and into the reality of success. It has been the false expectations that has caused USC to be a horrible home favorite in recent years (3-12 ATS last three seasons). However, this year the expectations are justified.

Head coach Carroll works closely with the defense. He has some gifted players to work with in DT Shaun Cody (freshman All-American last year) & SS Troy Palamalu (1st team All-American, 1st team Pac-10). Carroll's system calls for smaller, faster players and the unit is thriving in their second year of it. Over a stretch of 7 quarters they held Auburn (3 second half points), Colorado (3 points entire game), and Kansas State (scoreless 1st quarter) to just 6 points. KSU eventually got things going and put up 27 points in a 27-20 win. Have to give the Wildcats credit as they are now 50-21 ATS at home under Snyder and have only lost 8 home games since 1990. Hard to take anything away from USC for the loss.

USC already owns quality wins over Auburn & Colorado. They tipped their hand in the Auburn game as a team that can do everything well. They were successful running & passing on offense and defending both the run and pass on defense. They dominated Colorado 40-3 in their next game. One of the smartest things Carroll did when arriving here was to lure in legendary offensive coordinator Norm Chow. The team did not catch on to Chow's system as quickly as hoped last year but now in their second year of the system and with 9 starters back this offense is going to be potent every week. QB Palmer had a sub-par game at KSU but leading up to that game had looked far better than at any other time in his career. He had completed over 70% of his passes through two games, earning a QB rating over 150! I look for him to bounce back nicely this week. Three year starting offensive linemen Zach Wilson missed the first two games and then was thrown to the wolves last week at KSU. He called it his worst game ever and will be looking to make amends. The offensive line is now fully in tact with all 5 starters back from last year. There continues to be a fierce competition for the starting RB spot between Michigan transfer Justin Vargas and last years starter Sultan McCullough. Carroll said McCullough had his best week of practice since he has been here.

Oregon State has wins over I-AA Eastern Kentucky, a very bad Temple team, a horrid UNLV team, and an erratic injury plagued Fresno State team. They returned 2 interceptions for TD's against Fresno State last week and the game was never close. RB Steven Jackson ran for over 255 yards on Fresno State but interestingly was held to just 51 yards by UNLV. It will be the first big test for first year starter true sophomore QB Derek Anderson. He went just 9-for-20 vs Fresno State and threw his first interception. Despite their tough schedule, the Trojans rank #3 in the country in total defense and rank #1 in the country in pass defense. Oregon State will definitely have a challenge to overcome on both sides of the ball.

This will be the Beavers first game on real grass in which they were 1-3 ATS on last year and are 9-14 ATS on since 1995. USC went 4-1 ATS off a straight up loss last season under Carroll and went 6-2 ATS vs Pac-10 teams as well. In 2000, the Trojan's first loss of the season led to a 5 game losing streak and last year their first loss led to a 3 game losing streak. That is definitely a trend that they want to terminate today. Trojans have played too well and come too far to disappoint in their Pac-10 opener.

USC  1 UNIT

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