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February 20 Sheet

Stanford at USC (-1) - 7:30pm Pacific
The Trojans played by far their best basketball of the season during a three game stretch February 2nd through 9th. They beat Oregon handily, completed the season sweep of cross town rival UCLA in an intense one point win, and crushed a decent UNLV team on the road by 25 and it was not even that close.

Something went amiss in their next game as they fell behind early and were blown out at Arizona State. The Sun Devils are a strong team but I attribute much of the outcome to USC employing a trapping defense at the start of the game that seemed to play right into the hands of ASU who ended up shooting 60% for the game. Clearly, this game was not indicative of USC's ability level. They then played very well in following game at Arizona despite what the misleading 27 point final margin suggests. It was actually a 2 point game with under 15 minutes to play. USC showed flashes of brilliance vs Arizona and had announcers amazed that this was the same team who had been blown at Arizona State two nights before.

The LA Times reported on Monday that the Trojans held a players only meeting prior to their next practice. The last time they did this was following a home loss to Oregon State in which they followed with the three straight wins described above.

This is an extremely athletic team who may have its best basketball still ahead of it. Forward Desmon Farmer & guard Erick Craven are both explosive scorers and stat sheet stuffers. They are both great competitors and leaders. Football player Gregg Guenther Jr (only played 8 minutes in first meeting vs Stanford) joined the team 10 games ago and has given them a much need physical presence inside. His playing time and production have skyrocketed in last 6 games. High flying forward Jerry Dupree is another player who joined the team late due to disciplinary & eligibility issues. Guard Derrick Craven (Erick's twin brother), center Rory O'Neil, forward Nick Curtis, forward Roy Smiley, and point guard Robert Hutchinson are all very capable.

Stanford comes in ranked #24 and at 10-3 in Pac-10 play. Additionally, they own early season non-conference wins over Xavier (at home) and Florida (neutral). They are pretty much a lock to make the big dance. I do not seem them playing with much urgency right now. They are coming off two easy home wins over the Washington schools last week. They are 4-3 in Pac-10 road games but the only two of quality were at Arizona State (by 1 point) and at Arizona following vending machine controversy/distraction which Lute Olson said cost his team a win. I really do not believe they can maintain the level of intensity and solid play on the road that will be needed to win tonight.

In earlier season meeting at Stanford it was a tight game throughout the second half. USC trailed by just 2 with under four minutes to play despite Stanford shooting 28 of 34 from the free throw line compared to 9 of 12 for USC. Coming off back to back losses, USC will look to turn the tables tonight. This time Stanford is the visitor.

USC 1 UNIT

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