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September 19 Sheet
North Carolina at Wisconsin
(Over 50.5) - 9:00am Pacific
This line really surprised me. I was
expecting this total to be closer to 60. I really felt UNC senior
QB Darian Durant played well vs Florida State in the season
opener. Several dropped passes, missed field goals, other
miscues, and playing against an superb FSU defense in the first
game of the season led to the offense getting shut out. They
bounced right back to score 27 first half points vs Syracuse in
next game and ended up with 34 (could have been higher if not for
turnovers) in regulation alone. Durant led the ACC in total
offense last year and despite having a limited number of career
starts is poised to break several school records this year. He
completes a very high percentage of passes and keeps drives alive
with his legs as well. The top two receivers from last year
departed, but jitterbug junior Jawarski Pollock has emerged as a
go to guy with 18 catches in two games making in the ACC leader in
receptions per game. The offensive line returnes all five
starters from last year. There are plenty of solid running backs
to choose from. The Tar Heel offense actually performed better on
the road (22.0ppg) than at home (15.2ppg) last season and their
two best offensive outputs came on the road in non-conference play
(34.5ppg at Syracuse & Arizona State). This unit can and knows it
has to score lots of points to give the team a chance to win.
The Tar Heel defense is another
story. They return eight starters from last season but gave up
452.4ypg and 35.1ppg a year ago! Even subtracting Syracuse's
overtime points in last game they are allowing 35.5ppg in two
games so far this season. Head coach Bunting made some lineup
changes prior to Syracuse game but it did not help much and more
lineup changes are surely due. The situation is so desperate that
six true freshman have already seen playing time on defense this
year. UNC ranks dead last of 117 teams nationally in total
defense.
Wisconsin is surely to be focused
after scoring just 3 offensive points in upset home loss to UNLV
last week. The Badgers were slowed by wet weather conditions and
5 turnovers. They were inside the red zone five times and inside
the 5 yard line three times but still only managed a single made
field goal. This is a potent offense that amassed 48 points and
591 total yards vs Akron two weeks ago. Top RB Anthony Davis may
not play this week due to injury but he has capable backups and
the young offensive line is said to be playing very well. The
Badgers will still have a very balanced attack. WR Lee Evans is
7th nationally in receiving yards per game. He should have
another big day. Expect QB Sorgi and this offense to bounce back
strongly.
Defensively, Wisconsin has battled
injury problems on their defensive line. Starting DE Erasmus
James remains out with injury. His backup Nick Cohart is "?" this
week with an ankle injury. Opposite DE Darius Jones has returned
from suspension but has not played well. Standout LB Alex Lewis
has been at less than 100% as well. The Badgers gave up a
whopping 534 yards to Akron two weeks ago. Last week it was hard
to tell how they played because UNLV led most of the game, always
ended up with good field position, and played conservatively.
Current weather report calls for
mostly sunny conditions and a high of 70 degrees. Should be
perfect conditions for football. Expect a high scoring affair.
Over 50.5 1 UNIT
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