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September 6 Sheet

UCF (+3) at Arizona State - Saturday - 7:00pm Pacific
Here is a little history on Golden Knight football. In 1997 they lost at Ole Miss by 1, at South Carolina by 2, and at Nebraska by 6 in three consecutive games to start the season. In 1998 they lost at Auburn by just 4. In 1999 they lost at Georgia by just a point. In 2000 they lost at Georgia Tech by only 4, and won at Alabama. Last year they played at Clemson, at Syracuse, at Virginia Tech, and at Arkansas. This year they opened the season in front of over 100,000 fans in Happy Valley and came up three points short. This may be the best UCF team in recent years and they are certainly no stranger to playing big time college football on the road.

On offense UCF returns 8 starters from last year when they averaged 30.3ppg. They ranked 9th in the country in pass offense, but 104th in rushing offense for a total offense ranking of 40. This year they will be much more balanced and have a team goal to finish top 10 nationally in total offense. It is very doable as they finished 7th in the country in total offense in 1998.

It all starts with junior QB Ryan Scheider who has better numbers in every category than former UCF great Daunte Culpepper did in his first two years as a starter. Scheider ranked 9th in the nation in pass efficiency as a freshman and threw for 2,923 yards & 17 touchdowns last year despite battling injuries throughout the season that limited both his mobility and practice time. In the season opener, he went 32-of-46 (69.5%) for 345 yards against Penn State. Some of his throws were so good that only David Carr's can compare at the college level in recent years. Senior WR Doug Gabriel led all returning players in the nation (minimum 20 catches) with an incredible 28.7 yard per catch average last year. Draft analyst Mel Kiper ranks Gabriel the 9th best senior prospect in the 2003 NFL draft. He did not disappoint in the opener with 11 catches for 153 yards. Speedy sophomore RB Alex Haynes ran for 83 yards vs PSU and will carry most of the load on the ground. Highly regarded 245 pound fullback Andreal Curry (top HS fullback in the state of Florida in 2000) will play this week after having to sit out the Penn State game due to an eligibility issue. They really missed him in short yardage situations against PSU. The offensive line could be the best in school history (4 starters back from last year). Thus, the reason for optimism in the running game and the offense having more balance.

Starting left guard David Ashkinaz, a JC transfer, has a particular interest in this game. He was a walk-on candidate at Arizona State in 2000 but was cut from the team. He has since bulked up to 305 pounds and was highly recruited by Pac-10 school's and others after starring at De Anza Community College in California. He played well in Saturday's opener against Penn State, silencing all-American defensive tackle Jimmy Kennedy most of the day while also registering five knockdown blocks. He and the offensive line will surely be fired up for this one.

UCF ranked 16th in the country in total defense last year and despite losing 8 starters, head coach Mike Kruczek says they will not be too hurt by the losses. Two of the returnees are absolute studs. DE Elton Patterson was an honorable mention All-American last year and currently ranks 3rd among all active players in career sacks. CB Asante Samuel is said to be the best CB ever to play here even though his counterpart last year CB Travis Fisher was taken in the 2nd round by the Rams. The Knight's went the JC route and landed two gems in DT DeMarcus Johnson & LB Chad Mascoe who were both considered top 15 JC recruits. Mascoe was expected to play at Florida State where he had originally signed out of high school but shocked everyone by coming to UCF. This will again be an effective defense.

Arizona State is clearly a team in rebuilding mode. Last year they went just 4-7 (1-7 in Pac-10 play). Their lone conference win was against (5-6) Oregon State and their other three wins came over San Diego State (3-8), LA Lafayette (3-8), and San Jose State (3-9). They were on a 6 game losing streak dating back to last season before last weeks 38-2 win over Division II Eastern Washington who only traveled 55 players and were severely outmanned. I know that ASU played much better at Nebraska than the 48-10 final score would indicate in their season opener. However, keep in mind that Troy State outgained the Huskers by 40+ yards the following week, so the ASU effort was not nearly as good as it may have first seemed.

Clearly, the ASU defense that ranked 78th in the country last year has not been tested against the pass. Nebraska only threw 13 times & Eastern Washington was out of its league. The Sun Devils ranked 100th in pass defense and 91st in pass defense efficiency last season. With 8 starters back on they are sure to be improved some but they are still young and will still give up a lot of points to an offense of UCF's caliber.

The Sun Devil offense is in the hands of a redshirt freshman QB, Chad Christiansen. Even more scary is that the offense only returns 4 starters! They lost their QB, top RB, and 4 offensive line starters to the NFL. Christiansen will probably be a solid QB someday, but he is not going to scare many defenses anytime soon. He went 6-of-16 for 77 yards vs Nebraska which I can dismiss, but against Eastern Washington he only completed 12-of-21 for 135 yards. Not very good numbers vs such an inferior opponent. ASU head coach Koetter is being very patient with this offense, running a simple, slimmed down playbook.

UCF really had a lot of trouble with Penn State's power game in their season opener, but they still had 4 more first downs, 63 more total yards, and a 7 minute edge in time of possession. In ASU they get a team who relies more on speed and finesse. I think they will find it more to their liking. The UCF defense showed promise last week despite 8 new starters and should only get better in their second time out. There is no chance that the Knights will be intimidated here. The UCF offense just has too much experience and firepower for the inexperienced ASU offense to be able to trade points with. Head coach Mike Kruczek is said to have given a fiery post game speech after last weeks Penn State loss and UCF is 8-4 ATS off a straight up loss during his tenure. Golden Knights get the mild upset here.

UCF  1 UNIT

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