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September 6 Sheet

TCU (-6.5) at Northwestern - Saturday - 10:00am Pacific
I had hoped to get this out sooner when the line was at -5, but I still like the game. TCU is a good football team. Gary Patterson is in his second full season here and everyone close to the program expects big things from this years team. Fourteen starters return from last years 6-6 bowl team. (Advantage of having extra practice time from the bowl game is beneficial this time of year.) The Horned Frogs ended last season with big upset wins over Louisville & at Southern Miss and Patterson reports that out of 25 starting positions (including special teams), there are 20 players who received significant playing time last season.

TCU ranked 24th in the nation in total defense and 10th in run defense last year. Six key starters return on that side of the ball, including stud senior LB LaMarcus McDonald (led team in tackles, 21.5 tackles for loss last year), senior CB Jason Goss (2nd team C-USA, 23 pass break ups last year), NT Chad Pugh (2nd team C-USA), Safety Marvin Godbolt (C-USA Frosh team), DE Robert Pollard (11.5 tackles for loss), and Free Safety Ken Hilliard (2nd on team in tackles last season). These guys can play. The Horned Frog defense was solid for three quarters in the season opener on Monday vs Cincinnati. In the first three quarters, the Bearcats only points came after recovering a fumble at the TCU 12 yard line, and from a 75 yard TD pass on their first offensive play of the game. Despite that long pass, they were held to under 200 yards through the first three quarters. The TCU defense eventually broke in the 4th quarter, but it was still a better than looked effort.

On offense, TCU returns 8 starters. They have a strong offensive line with 4 starters and all 5 backups returning from last year. Both leading rushers return & the offense has a talented cast of wide receivers. The big question mark headed into the season is how would new starting QB Sean Stilley perform. He completed 63.2% of his passes last year, starting one game and playing parts in others. In the season opener her went 20-of-31 for 253 yards with 2 interceptions and 1 touchdown vs the Bearcats. I thought he played very well. Much better than I had expected from him. In fact, I felt the TCU offense was too conservative and did not let him throw enough. Which is in part why they settled for 5 field goals and ended up losing the ball game.

Northwestern is a bad football team. Dating back to last season, the Wildcats have lost 7 straight games. In that span they have allowed an average of 44.8 points per game! They even lost at home to Bowling Green on senior day last year. Something is not right with this team and 4th year coach Randy Walker's days may be numbered. Six players with remaining eligibility left the program last year. Amazingly, 9 players from last years team were either drafted or signed as free agents by NFL teams. Makes you wonder just how bad the remaining talent is. Northwestern averaged 36.8ppg in 2000, and last year returned 10 starters on offense but dropped to 29.1ppg. A recent Sporting News article suggests that their past offensive success was really due to the coaching skills of now Oklahoma coordinator Kevin Wilson. This year they only return 4 starters on offense. Gone are star QB Kustok (2,692 passing yards, 20 TD's, 745 rushing yards, 11 TD's), star RB Damien Anderson, star WR Sam Simmons, starting TE, and 3/5 of the offensive line! These guys are just irreplaceable.

Northwestern has even bigger problems on defense. They return 6 starters but I do not know if you would want anyone back from last years unit. One of their most talented young players, defensive tackle Thomas Derricks is having to redshirt due to an injury. Senior middle linebacker Patt Durr (leading returning tackler, one of only two senior starters on defense) went down with a knee injury vs Air Force and is out indefinitely. The only other senior starter, CB Raheem Covington suffered a concussion last week but is expected to play. This is a very young defense, and it is not good.

Northwestern could not have looked much worse in their season opener at Air Force. They were outgained 285 to 37 in the first half. They went 3 and out in 5 of their first 8 drives and had no chance of stopping the Falcon's running game. In fact Air Force only threw 8 passes while amassing 52 points. NW ended up getting outgained 521 to 198 and out first downed 34 to 12! Starting QB Tony Stauss went 5 for 10 for just 23 yards before being pulled late in the 2nd quarter. He never looked comfortable and was not in sync with his receivers at all. Backup QB Brett Basanez (a redshirt freshman) came in and ended up with better numbers (13 for 25, 159 yards) but that was large in part to the score being 45-0 and Air Force playing 2nd & 3rd stringers. Even at that, Northwestern only managed 3 points for a 52-3 final score. Basanez has been named the starter this week, his first career start and 2nd career game. I am fairly confident that he is not capable of leading this team to victory over a quality opponent. Northwestern is just plain bad on both sides of the ball. The Wildcats are just 5-12 ATS off a straight up loss and just 3-5 ATS as a home dog under Walker.

TCU has excellent special teams. Solid punter, speedy return men, and maybe the best FG kicker in the country. Their edge in special teams alone warrants a -6.5 point spread. TCU head coach Gary Patterson was defensive coordinator here in 2000 when TCU held NW's then high powered offense to just 14 points. They are familiar with what Northwestern likes to do. Horned Frogs faithful truly believed this years team had a shot at going 11-0 or 10-1. They were devastated by the late collapse and eventual OT loss to Cincinnati. It was a game that they definitely outplayed their opponent. They can ill-afford to not take care of business this week and once they get a lead they will be sure to finish the job this time. The line move up from -5 and the fact that TCU is playing on a short week will stop me from making this a 2 UNIT play. Give the points.

TCU  1 UNIT

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