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August 29 Sheet

San Diego State (+17) at Fresno State - Thursday - 7:00pm Pacific
The Aztecs had very few things go right for them last year. They were decimated by injuries and suspensions, had a -16 in turnover ratio in their first 10 games, and ranked 111th in the nation in scoring offense at just 16.7ppg. In recent years this has been one of the more poorly coached teams in the country. Many times watching their games I would shake my head at some of the play calling on both sides of the ball.

Despite playing with an offense that had more turnovers than touchdowns, the Aztec defense was able to rank 34th nationally in total defense. They kept the team in most games last year. In their season opener last year they led Arizona 10-0 before the offense gave up a safety and had a fumble returned for a touchdown. They led 12-6 at half-time at Ohio State before 5 straight 2nd half turnovers led to a 27-12 loss. They also dominated a good Colorado State team, on the road nonetheless, with a 19 to 9 first down advantage and a 370 to 212 total yard advantage but somehow only won by 7 points. For the season, the team was only outgained by 15 yards per game (unheard of for a 3-8 team), but was outscored by 106 points. As the season wore on, the offense received more and more criticism and a rift developed between the offensive and defensive units.

In comes new head coach Tom "Air" Craft. He is a SDSU alumni who led the Aztecs to an 18-4 record in his two years as starting QB. He won 67% of his games as head coach at Palomar college, including three state and three national championships. He was voted state coach of the year 5 times and conference coach of the year 9 times during his tenure. Craft also served as SDSU offensive coordinator from 1994-1996 where each year the team averaged at least 30 points per game including 38.9 points per game in his final year. Craft has installed a one-back, spread offense that occasionally features a no huddle wrinkle.

Does Craft have the personnel to execute this offense successfully? Yes. Junior QB Adam Hall (transfer from Texas) won the starting job over senior incumbent Lon Sheriff. Hall is said to be the most mobile QB they have had here in years. He got his feet wet last year starting one game and passing for 600 yards total for the season. His cast of receivers is impressive. Senior J.R Tolver has caught over 60 both of the past two seasons and earned 2nd team MWC honors last year. Senior Ronnie Davenport has not played in two seasons but showed much promise starting 10 games for Cal as a sophomore in 1999 averaging 14.1 yards per catch. Senior Kassim Osgood was a 1st team Division II all-American last year at Cal Poly with 83 catches and 14 touchdowns and is said to be a real playmaker. The running back position is in good shape with senior James Truvillion (redshirted last year) and freshman Michael Franklin expected to get most of the carries. Franklin has been called "MF 2" by teammates in reference to ex-SDSU great Marshall Faulk. They say he is going to impress people. The offensive line is in good shape with two full time starters back, a solid backup who has 7 career starts, and an up and coming star in sophomore Mike Kracalik who is a huge 6-9, 330.

On defense the Aztecs have some holes to fill, but still appear to be in pretty good shape again on that side of the ball. They only return 5 starters from last year but get a few others back who missed last year with injuries. Six of the top eight are back on the defensive line, all three linebackers have some starting experience, and both cornerbacks are very experienced which will help out any defensive scheme. Two young, but well touted safeties round out the new look. First year defensive coordinator Thom Kaumeyer plans to run an aggressive defense. He spent the last two seasons with the Atlanta Falcons as a defensive quality control coach and was hand picked by Craft.

Fresno State comes off a tough loss at Wisconsin by 2 points last Friday. Although they were in a position to win the game in the 4th quarter, and easily could have done so, I was not all too impressed by their performance. Wisconsin had a 25 to 15 edge in first downs despite only succeeding on 4 of 16 3rd down conversions. The Badgers started the game too conservatively on offense and it was not until mid way through the 2nd half that they started to look comfortable in their passing game. The Bulldogs averaged a pitiful 1.8 yards per rush attempt and were penalized 11 times for 99 yards. QB Jeff Grady completed just 21 of 42 passes and showed that he is still very green. He often overthrew receivers, was called for intentional grounding once, and threw two interceptions. Grady will start Thursday despite a bruised or "sore" hip that caused him to miss practice time in an already short week. He could be at less than 100%. Meanwhile, star WR Bernard Berrian will not play due to a strained knee. Berrian is quite simply the Bulldogs most talented player. Grady's injury & Berrian's absence really takes away the explosiveness of this offense. Furthermore, head coach Pat Hill is quoted as saying that he wants to focus on the running game this week. With projected starter Derrick Ward ineligible and backup Fontenot still hobbled by injury, former walk-on Rivera is the starting running back right now. He is steady but is not going to beat anyone on his own. Focusing on running the ball could mean several stalled drives and a low scoring game. This makes the 17 point spread even a bigger factor.

The Aztecs have a positive atmosphere for the first time in years. Reports say that three times as many fans as last year showed up to watch the family day scrimmage this fall. You would not know it from the last three years but this is a program with a rich football tradition. They have beaten Fresno State four straight times and even though they have not faced each other since 1998, you get the feeling they really think they can compete with, if not outright beat this team. It will be SDSU's third consecutive season opener on national television and with the last two both being losses they really want to give a good showing here. The Aztecs are 10-5 ATS the last three seasons as road underdogs. Fresno is only 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a double digit home favorite. The team that is playing its second game usually has an advantage over a team playing its first, however the playing field may be a little more even in this situation. SDSU will be running entirely new schemes on offense and defense that Fresno will have a hard time trying to prepare for. Additionally, the Bulldogs are on a 6 day week after a hard fought, physical road game. Look for the Aztecs to surprise people and give Fresno all it can handle tonight. Take the points.

San Diego State  1 UNIT

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