Vanderbilt +8 (-105) at Wake Forest - 4:00pm Pacific
Not many people are giving attention to the offseason death of Vanderbilt RB Kwame Doster. I believe it gives Vanderbilt an emotional/motivational edge of at least 2-3 points, possibly more. Unfortunately, it may have taken a tragedy like this to get the Commodores to finally play with passion and urgency. The team will set up a locker for Doster before every game and wear #1 with "DOT" on their helmets to honor the would be senior. QB Jay Cutler is said to have turned down the NFL and return to school due in part to wanting to be with his team after the tragedy and his #1 target senior WR Erik Davis was Doster's ex-roommate. Cutler will be a 4th year starter and was named 1st team SEC in the preseason. In season finale last year vs Tennessee he threw for 316 yards in a narrow 33-38 loss to the Vols. Due in part to that performance and Cutler returning for his senior year, coaches are hinting they will finally utilize Cutler's abilities and throw more this year. Last year Vandy ran the ball an average of 40 times per game with only 26 passes. Much better balance is expected this season. VU has more depth at the offensive line than in recent years, running backs are adequate, and starting receivers including tight end are above average. Defense is where Vandy's biggest concerns lie, but they have improved slightly each of the past three seasons and should continue their upward movement. They have better speed and depth this year. The defense is led by a strong group of linebackers which will be one of the better units in the SEC.
I like this years Wake team, I just do not think this is a good spot for them. The Deacons will be without first team ACC RB Chris Barclay (1 game suspension) which makes their potent running game much less dangerous. Defensively, Wake's front 7 is improved but they will not have the luxury of leaving two experienced and talented cornerbacks on islands anymore. Both graduated and the most experienced returnee Riley Swanson has been suspended for the game. Coaches called his suspension a bigger loss than RB Barclay. Minor injuries have not given the remaining defensive backs much quality practice time. Wake has a huge non-conference game at Nebraska in week two which they are sure to have looked forward to all offseason. Wake does not have a very strong home field advantage. They are just 3-6 straight up in last 9 home games vs 1-A opponents. The Deacons are just 3-9-1 as a home favorite and just 4-13-1 as a favorite overall under Jim Grobe. They have only beaten 1-A teams by double digits 6 times in 45 games (20 wins). Four of those six coming vs bad Duke & ECU teams.
Despite a 2-9 record, Vandy amazingly led 8 of their 11 games at halftime last year including bowl bound foes Navy, Florida, and Tennessee. They were also robbed of two wins (Rutgers, Ole Miss) by bad officiating. VU head coach Bobby Johnson is well liked but this is his 4th year at the helm and he has to start delivering results soon. Another thing favoring the dog here is that the two teams do a lot of things similar on both sides of the ball. The Commodores are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 as a road dog. Expect a close game. Take the points.
Official RAS Play: Vanderbilt +8 (-105) 1 UNIT
Duke at East Carolina UNDER 54 (-110) - 10:00am Pacific
The Blue Devils enter their second full season under head coach Ted Roof and should easily have their best defense of his tenure. Roof, a former defensive coordinator is sure to have focused his efforts to improve the team on that side of the ball, particularly the run defense. They will get some big time help on the defensive line with the return of senior DE Phillip Alexander (3rd in ACC in tackles for loss in 2003) and junior DT Brian Sallee who both had to redshirt last season. They also return 6 starters plus 4 others who made 30 tackles or more last year. Duke will be much better against the run and is sure to improve on their 29.3 points per game allowed average from a year ago. Even with that high number, Duke games still only averaged 45.9ppg last year because of a stagnant offense. This year Duke brings in a new offensive coordinator, Bill O'Brien from Maryland. They return starters at all of the skill positions, but that may not be a good thing considering last years dismal numbers. There are still no standout playmakers. They have big concerns on the offensive line where they must replace 4 starters and recently lost projected started Bob Berrion to injury for the season. I do not see the offense improving much, particular in an early season road game.
East Carolina is coming off back to back embarrassing years under John Thompson. Thompson was supposed to be a defensive specialist but his teams gave up points by the boatload. This was to be the year that his defense started to show life, but new head coach Skip Holtz takes over and will probably receive the credit. ECU returns 9 defensive starters (-1 lost to season suspension) and all reports indicate they will be greatly improved. Even with the loss of suspended player, the Pirates have 11 returnees who made 20 or more stops a year ago. Holtz has clearly indicated that the new defense has made more strides than the new offense that is still trying to find its comfort zone. Starting QB James Pinkney missed spring practice and was just reinstated to the team prior to fall camp. He will have had only 20 days to learn the new system. ECU will not have its full offensive package in place to start the season, and Holtz says they will focus on fundamentals early on. Leading returning WR Bobby Good is questionable with a hamstring injury.
Duke games averaged 45.9ppg last year while ECU games averaged 60.9ppg for a combined average of 53.4ppg, right in line with today's total. However, in addition to both defenses being ahead of the offenses at this point in the season, I foresee both defenses improving significantly. I look for a 3-6 point improvement from Duke, and a 6-11 point improvement from ECU's defense that basically gave up in most games last year. That is 9 to 17 points that will have to be replaced by two offenses that are learning new systems and have questionable talent at best. Both teams badly want to establish their running games, but will be trying to do so behind highly suspect offensive lines. Weather forecast calls for sunny skies and 81 degrees for a 1:00pm local start. Look for plenty of running plays that go nowhere and players taking their time to get back to the huddle while the clock is running. The last two meetings between these two (2000 & 2002) averaged 38.5ppg. It is hard to envision either team hitting 30 today. Take the under.
RAS Official Play: UNDER 54 1 UNIT
Boise State at Georgia -7.5 (-102) - 2:30pm Pacific
Despite losing some great individual talent from last year, Georgia returns 15 starters and is VERY experienced with 20 of 22 starters being upperclassmen. I like the fact that expectations are a bit lower than they have been in past years. The team does not have as much pressure and may be playing with a chip on their shoulders. Senior QB D.J. Shockley has waited three years for the starting QB job and is determined to prove he belongs. Shockley is a talented run/pass threat who has worked hard on his mechanics in the offseason. I expect good things from him. He will get plenty of support from an offensive line that returns all 5 starters and should be one of the better units in the nation. The Bulldogs also have a three headed monster at RB with last years leading returnees Thomas Brown and Danny Ware both back plus they get former starter Kregg Lumpkin back from a redshirt season. The UGA defense has held opponents at 16.5ppg or less in each of the last 3 seasons and with 8 starters back will be in fine shape again. They will be without one key player, DT Kedric Golston (suspension) for this game but there is plenty of young talent and depth to fill the void.
Boise State did not play a single non-conference away game last year. Even in conference they were tested at Tulsa in a 3 point win and at SJSU in double OT finishing 1-3 ATS in road games. Boise's defense was not good last year. They gave up 25.7ppg (37.4ppg in 5 games away from home) playing a very easy schedule. They gave 44 points and a whopping 6.6ypc in bowl game vs Louisville that would have been even worse if not for +3 turnovers. From that defense they have lost two 1st team WAC players in LB Andy Avalos (captain, led team in tackles last 3 years) and CB Gabe Franklin (top cover corner). Starting FS Cam Hall has quit the team in the offseason amid off the field troubles. Starting SLB Colt Brooks has been suspended for the game and his backup Ben Chuckovich is out with a groin injury. Third string freshman Kyle Gingg is slated to start at LB while junior Quinton Jones will come over from offense to make his first ever start on defense, playing CB. Offensively, Boise has been decimated at the WR position. Two starters were lost to graduation, and a third, junior Drisan James has been suspended for the opener. The next most experienced reserve Chrisean Christopher has been ruled ineligible. This situation really makes the Boise passing game less dangerous. Local Idaho papers report that the BSU team flight to Atlanta was delayed by 3 hours Thursday night. They did not land until 3am Friday morning and then had to take a 45 minute bus ride to the team hotel.
Georgia has dominated teams that they could run well against in recent years. When averaging 4.5ypc or more in regular season games they are 4-0 ATS the past two seasons with an average 32 point margin of victory. Boise State is only 7-7-1 ATS in non-conference play compared to 22-10 ATS in WAC play under Hawkins.
RAS Official Play: Georgia -7.5 (-102) 1 UNIT
