Week 8 - Official Plays

Oregon State (+9) at UCLA - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #363-364
The Beavers are physically and mentally as sound as any team in the Pac-10 heading into this week.  They are on a two game win streak and thanks to a BYE have only played twice in the last three weeks.  The second half comeback vs Washington State three weeks ago is sure to have been the turning point in the season for this team.  They made big play after big play in all faucets of the game to pull out that win which has provided them with a huge confidence and momentum boost.  They improved even further during their off week and then came out with an impressive win at Cal last week despite settling for three field goals inside of 30 yards.  The big news was a new found running game that went for 181 yards against a Cal defense that ranks #1 in the Pac-10.  OSU had struggled to run the ball dating all the way back to the start of last season.  If they continue to have success it opens up a ton of options for the offense which is already very adept at passing the ball and features one of the top WR's in the history of the conference in Mike Haas.  Defensively, the Beavers are showing signs of improvement.  They have only given up 30 points in their last 6 quarters after allowing 135 in the previous 10.  The young secondary has made the biggest strides having by far their best game of the season vs Cal last week.  Senior linebackers Trent Bray and Keith Ellison do not get much press but have possible NFL futures. 

UCLA has been playing Houdini the last three weeks as they continue to pull wins out of a hat.   They have come back from 4th quarter deficits of 10 vs Washington, 12 vs Cal, and 17 vs Washington State.  UCLA has been outgained by an average of 60 yards per game in Pac-10 play despite facing three teams with a combined record of 2-8 in conference.  The defense has surrendered 481.6 yards per game the last three weeks and this week will be without starting linebacker Justin London at 100% due to a reoccurring ankle injury.  London currently ranks 3rd on the team in tackles and may play but is not expected to start.  UCLA's offense has been efficient, but they did lose starting OL Chris Joseph to injury for the season in last week's win.  They are also still without starting WR Junior Taylor and must rely on RB Drew and TE Lewis for their big plays.  The offense has been able to overcome the defense in recent weeks with help from special teams but they have to again play well this week just to have a chance to win outright.  

Oregon schools are always fired up to play the Southern California teams as many players are from the area and were not recruited by UCLA or USC.  Oregon State currently has 27 players on the roster from the Southern California area.  This matchup carries added significance as Oregon State QB Matt Moore transferred from UCLA to Oregon State after UCLA coach Karl Dorrell named Drew Olson the starting QB in 2003.  Moore is having a fine season for the Beavers and surely has had this game circled for a long time.  UCLA has been finding ways to escape with wins, but none of the Pac-10 teams they have beaten even has a winning record in conference.  Oregon State at 2-1 does.  UCLA has no business giving -9 points in this spot.  Take the points. 

Official Play:  Oregon State +9   1 UNIT 

 Washington State (+12) at California - 7:15pm Pacific - Game #347-348I still believe Washington State can play with any Pac-10 team other than USC.  The Cougars have lost three straight games but all three were very winnable.  Despite last week's disappointing loss in overtime to UCLA, they still should be a relatively fresh team due to an easy schedule at the start of the season and a BYE before the start of conference play.  Head coach Bill Doba said the team ran harder than they have all season the Sunday following the UCLA loss.  He also noted that this is a pivotal game for the Cougars if they are to reach their season goal of getting back to a bowl game.  Leading wide receiver Jason Hill (#4 in the country in receiving yards per game) sat out the second half vs Oregon State and missed the Stanford game entirely due to injury.  He came back sooner than expected last week vs UCLA and is expected to be closer to 100% this week.  Fellow starting WR Chris Jordan also has been banged up the past two weeks but is now ready to go.  QB Alex Brink had been plagued by interceptions in previous two games but threw zero vs UCLA.  The offensive line has been excellent all season and RB Jerome Harrison leads the Pac-10 in rushing.  This WSU offense will be difficult to stop this week.  Defensively, WSU has been a disappointment, but starting DT Ropati Pitoitua, a key cog in their run defense saw his first action of the season last week playing about half the game.  He should see even more time this week.  The young Cougar secondary has been a weakness but they gain more experience with every game and Cal has the second to worse pass offense in the conference. 

This will be Cal's eighth straight game without a BYE week.  They started the season 5-0 but the five wins came over Sacramento State, Washington, Illinois, New Mexico State, and Arizona who combined have only three I-A wins.  JC transfer QB Joseph Ayoob continues to have an up and down season.  He went 18-for-35 with 1 interception in loss to UCLA and just 14-for-40 with two interceptions in loss to Oregon State last week which brought on lots of booing from the home crowd.  Cal is now dealing with some key injuries on their once formidable offensive line.  Starting LT Andrew Cameron is already out for the season and now starting RT Ryan O'Callaghan (1st team Pac-10 last year) is listed as doubtful this week with a concussion.  Second leading receiver Robert Jordan (collarbone) is also not expected to play.  Defensively, Cal's touted run defense has not looked so good the past two weeks allowing 170 rushing yards to UCLA and 181 to Oregon State.  This week they will most likely be without starting DT Brandon Mebane due to an ankle injury.  DE Phillip Mbakogu (knee) is listed as questionable.  Cal's run and pass defense will both be tested often this week.  RT O'Callaghan and DT Mebane are listed as doubtful but Tedford says that a final decision will not be made on each until game time.

The Cougars are 18-11 ATS in road games since 2000 and actually have performed better as an away dog than any other situation in 2+ years under Bill Doba.  I see this as a matchup of two even teams and I will gladly take the double digit points.