Air Force (+1) at Navy - 10:30am Pacific - Game #341-342
I was high on Air Force at the start of the season as they returned 13 starters, very high for a service academy, in fact it ties for the most ever in 22 years under head coach Fisher DeBerry. After two solid wins to start the season, the Falcons have dropped three straight, and this looks like a prime spot to get back on them. All 3 losses have come against upper echelon MWC teams. The first, a one point heartbreaker to current league favorite Wyoming. In that game Air Force scored a go ahead touchdown with just over a minute and a half to play but missed the extra point. A poor kick off gave Wyoming good field position and they drove for a touchdown to win by one. They then lost by 3 at Utah after a short week and lost the following Thursday at Colorado State in a game that they lost fumbles on two of their first three plays from scrimmage. That game was much more competitive than the final score would indicate. It is very possible that no one will win at Utah or at Colorado State this year. Air Force ranks 31st nationally in total offense. They have a much more balanced attack than in recent years. Of course they still run the ball with the best of them but QB Shaun Carney also has a 140.1 pass efficiency rating (4th best in MWC) and they are passing for 171 yards per game, the most ever under DeBerry. They even have a rare NFL prospect in 6-4 WR Jason Brown. Statistically, the Falcon defense leaves something to be desired, but they have not done that bad when considering the schedule they have played. All five of their opponents rank 42nd or better nationally in pass offense. They still believe they can get the job done on that side of the ball and Navy is a team they can finally match up well with.
Due to canceled game vs Rice, Navy has only played three times and had a two week hiatus prior to last week's game at Duke. They were fortunate to make some big plays on offense and scored a touchdown with 1:18 left to beat hapless Duke. It was Navy's first win of the season after losses to Maryland and another hapless team, Stanford. Contrary to Air Force, Navy lost a ton of talent and only returned 6 starters for this season. Their offense has not been nearly as efficient and their defense has had a hard time getting off the field. They are averaging 50 yards of penalties per game and are even losing the time of possession battle. Penalties and losing the time of possession battle are bad signs for a triple option offense. Coach Paul Johnson probably wishes he had a few more games to improve before facing Air Force.
It is well documented how unhappy Air Force head coach Fisher DeBerry has been the past two years without the Commander In Chief Trophy. He has said repeatedly this week, "The trophy is the No. 1 goal in our program, and it has been for 22 years I've been the head coach." Air Force had possession of it 13 of the 14 years prior to Navy taking it the past two seasons. The Midshipmen upset Air Force two years ago 28-25, and won last year on a last second field goal 24-21, which puts the Falcons in a double revenge situation. Under Deberry, Air Force is 34-8 SU vs Navy & Army. The Falcons are more experienced, have played a much tougher schedule, and have more all around talent than Navy this year. They have had two extra days to prepare for this game and it presents an opportunity for them to salvage a promising season that has gone bad the past three weeks. Air Force is 13-1 ATS (2-0 this year) on artificial turf and 13-8 ATS (2-0 this year) as an away dog since 1998. Falcons get the job done this year.
Official Play: Air Force +1 1 UNIT
Baylor (+8) at Iowa State - 11:00am Pacific - Game #343-344
Baylor comes in at 3-1 and after their performance last week at Texas A&M, I have to believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Baylor beat Texas A&M last year in OT so this year's meeting was a big revenge game for the Aggies. Nevertheless, Baylor dominated most of the game, particularly on defense where Baylor held Texas A&M to just 3 first downs and 70 total yards in the first half. For the game, A&M finished with just 287 total yards. The Aggies went on a long 86 yard drive for a field goal to force overtime, needing two 4th down conversions along the way. Baylor should have had a much bigger lead, but four first half trips to the redzone, including three trips inside the 5 yard line, resulted in a total of just 3 points. After allowing 421 total yards and 36.9ppg last year, the Baylor defense, with 8 starters back, is allowing just 288 total yards and 15.8ppg. The secondary has been superb with 6 interceptions and 20 pass breakups already this year. They rank 3rd nationally in pass efficiency defense which typically consists of the who's who of college football (Miami Fla, Texas, Virginia Tech also in top 6). Offensively, QB Shawn Bell has been steady and consistent. RB's Paul Mosely and Brandon Whitaker form a nice tandem. The receiving corps has improved its speed significantly. Iowa State is coming off a disappointing double overtime loss at Nebraska.
If not for a solid performance from QB Bret Meyer, the Cyclones would have been blown out. For the second consecutive week they could not run the ball and the defense was very suspect. A combination of those two ingredients will not win many football games. Starting RB Stevie Hicks played just one down vs Nebraska and sat out the rest of the game. He remains questionable this week with a lingering "undisclosed" injury. Second string RB Jason Scales remains doubtful. This leaves ISU with a 3rd string RB likely to get most of the carries so the running game will again have its work cut out. The ISU defense gave up 467 yards to a Nebraska offense that had been struggling and prior to that gave up 365 yards to an Army offense that had been struggling. With the onus on inconsistent sophomore QB Meyer to perform well, ISU should not be giving more than a TD to any Big 12 team.
Last year in Waco, Iowa State battled out a 26-25 win. Baylor outgained Iowa State by almost 200 total yards (450-257), but were hurt by four lost fumbles including one returned 65 yards for a TD, a missed field goal, a missed extra point and several costly penalties. Iowa State needed an 80 yard drive to score a TD with under a minute left for the win. The drive was aided by a pass interference call on 3rd and 16 and an offsides call on 4th and 2. Clearly, Baylor has improved significantly since then and should be very competitive in this spot. The +8 points carries extra value in what figures to be a low scoring game. Take the points.
Official Play: Baylor +8 1 UNIT
Hawaii (+3) at Louisiana Tech - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #375-376
Most people have not realized how different this Hawaii team is compared to previous versions. It was hard to tell much from their first two games as they were breaking in a new QB and playing two of the best teams that college football has to offer in USC and Michigan State. Then followed a BYE week and the team has been very impressive in last two outings vs more manageable WAC competition. They went on the road and not only dominated Idaho from start to finish, but shut them out, something unheard of from a defense that allowed 38.4ppg a year ago. They followed it up with another solid performance last week vs Boise State. The defense held the Broncos to zero offensive points in the first half and just 21 offensive points for the game. Hawaii would have won the game and their defense would be getting much more notice if not for Boise scoring touchdowns on an interception return, long punt return, and a blocked field goal return. If that was not enough, Hawaii needed only an extra point to tie the game with under 3 minutes left but it too was blocked and returned for 2 points the other way. Last year Boise racked up 589 yards and beat Hawaii 69-3. This year they were held to 430 yards. Some credit for the improved defense goes to new defensive coordinator Jerry Glanville, but he was also given an experienced group of players to work with. The defense is bringing pressure on almost every play and are much more physical than they have been in the past. They are expected to get back a couple of injured players on the defensive line this week which will only help.
Louisiana Tech relied heavily on star RB Ryan Moats last year. They averaged 200 rushing yards per game so it did not matter that QB Matt Kubik completed just 50.8% of his passes with as many interceptions as touchdowns. This year Moats is gone, and Kubik is going to have to be more effective throwing the ball. So far, he has not been able to improve on last years completion percentage or TD/INT ratio. Backup Donald Allen has taken about 1/3 of the teams throws and has done even worse. Defensively, La Tech has been miserable for more than a decade and return only 4 starters on that side of the ball. They are also on to their third different defensive coordinator since the end of last season. Their last game looks impressive on paper but the team they beat, New Mexico State, has been a mess all season long.
Hawaii first year starting QB Colt Brennan really has the look of a nice player. He is still making some mistakes, but will get better with every game. Head coach June Jones says he will be a great, great QB here. He is much more mobile than previous QB Timmy Chang and this year's offensive line is said to be the best ever under Jones. That gives the Hawaii offense a lot more options. Hawaii rolled up 536 yards on Boise State and is averaging 439ypg on the season. They are already on pace to eclipse last years average despite already facing three of the best teams on their schedule. Hawaii is clearly one of the top 3 teams in the WAC this year and it is a long way back to the rest. Take the points.
