Washington State (+2) at Oregon State - 1:00pm Pacific - Game #159-160
The Cougars have yet to be tested but are a perfect 3-0 on the season and I strongly believe they are for real. They get both UCLA and ASU at home this year. I can easily see this team going 9-2 and finishing second in the Pac-10. Washington State went 29-7 from 2001 to 2003 including 19-4 in Pac-10 play which was tops in the league, even better than USC. Last year with only 6 returning starters they took a step back, finishing just 5-6. This year 15 starters are back and they only lost 13 lettermen. In addition to being inexperienced last year, they endured some significant injuries including a season ending one to their starting QB at mid season. That opened the door for then redshirt freshman Alex Brink. Brink, an Oregon native, made his first career start right here at Oregon State last year. The Cougars lost 38-19 and head coach Bill Doba recalls, "We got embarrassed down there. They embarrassed us." Brink rebounded to lead the Cougars to 2 wins in final 3 games including a win at UCLA as a double digit dog. He has gone on to win the starting job now as a Sophomore and ranks #11 in the nation in passing efficiency. Brink has good size, strength, and accuracy. His poise, leadership, and command of the offense have been impressive. Last years starter, Josh Swogger, had always been touted as an NFL prospect so Brink winning the job this year was no small feat. Brink has a lot of weapons. Senior RB Jerome Harrison features a nice combination of speed and power. He has a streak of 6 straight 100 yard rushing games dating back to last season. The Cougars have their top six pass catchers back from last year including all conference candidate WR Jason Hill and all purpose speed threat Michael Bumpus. WSU is one team that actually utilizes their tight end and they have a good one in senior Troy Bienemann. This is a multi-dimensional and very balanced offense.

Head coach Bill Doba was formerly the defensive coordinator here and still hangs his hat on defense. One WSU assistant calls senior MLB Will Derting the best he has ever coached in 25 years of experience. Derting, an All-American candidate, played with a cast on one hand last season and still led the team in tackles. He is 100% now and leads a defense that is returning to its swarming, gang tackling form after disappointing last year. They have played one of the easiest schedules in the conference so far but have looked excellent in leading the conference in sacks, rushing defense, and total defense. This does not bode well for a Beaver team that is struggling to establish a running game and ranks last in the conference in sacks allowed.

Oregon State comes into the game fresh off two blowout losses and is struggling in several areas. Defensively, they have been one of the worst in the country against the pass, ranking 114th of 117 teams in pass efficiency defense. Only Ball State, Rice, and Bowling Green have been worse. OSU corners are inexperienced and have been beaten repeatedly for big plays. This problem has been compounded by a lack of pressure on opposing QB's, not a good combination. OSU ranks last in the Pac-10 in sacks with only 5 in 4 games. The loss of DE Bill Swancutt (co-Pac-10 defensive POY) to the NFL and two 2nd team Pac-10 cornerbacks has been severely felt. Offensively, QB Matt Moore has been inconsistent. He has thrown for big yardage numbers, but part of that is skewed due to the Beavers being behind by huge margins in last two games. He has completed just 55% with 4 interceptions, and 13 sacks allowed in last two games. Meanwhile, Oregon State continues its struggle to run the ball. After only rushing for a Pac-10 worst 71ypg last year, they are at 84ypg this year and could not even top 100 yards against I-AA foe Portland State in their season opener.

Washington State's "pressure" style of defense and balanced offense give the Cougars decided matchup advantages on both sides of the ball. Washington State will also benefit from having an extra week to prepare for this game. The revenge factor, QB Brink playing in his home state and returning to the site of his first career start, conference opener, and bad taste from first losing season since 2000 last year give the Cougars plenty of motivation. WSU is 4-0 in last four Pac-10 openers including 3-1 ATS. They are also 9-5 ATS as a road dog since 2000. As of this writing (Thursday at 10pm PST) forecasts call for a 40% chance of rain. Rain and or wind would also favor Washington State as they are the more physical team and do not rely on passing nearly as much as Oregon State. This is a clear case of the wrong team being favored and presents outstanding value for a play on the Cougars.

Official Play: Washington State +2 2 UNITS


New Mexico (+1.5) at TCU - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #189-190
After three straight second place finishes, many Lobo insiders believe this may be their year to win the Mountain West. Despite a tough loss last week at UTEP, the Lobos at 3-1 are still off to their best start ever under Rocky Long which includes a marquee win at Missouri. Last week at UTEP, New Mexico led 10-7 at halftime. They had forced UTEP to go 3 and out on their first possession of the second half. New Mexico then drove inside the UTEP 20 and appeared ready to take control of the game. On the next play a bad snap led to a 3rd and very long, and on 3rd down UTEP returned an interception for a TD. New Mexico's next possession ended in a punt that was blocked and returned for a TD. Before they knew what had hit them, the Lobos trailed 21-10. They hung in and pulled within 21-13 but could get no closer. The big news of the night was the performance of New Mexico's defense. They are only one of three schools in the country to finish in the top 30 nationally in total defense each of the past 5 seasons. The unit held the high powered UTEP offense to just one offensive touchdown. UTEP is a team that had averaged over 40ppg in their last 9 outings dating back to last season!

After watching junior QB Kole McKamey last season, I felt the New Mexico offense would always be limited with him at the helm, but he was really impressed me with his improved play this year. McKamey is leading the MWC in passing efficiency after finishing last a year ago. He is playing with much more confidence and has developed great chemistry with senior WR and roommate Hank Baskett. They have become one of the best pass catch combinations in the conference. McKamey is also a threat to run and often picks up key first downs with his legs. The improved passing game has taken some pressure off star RB Dontrell Moore who is looking closer to 100% with every game following offseason knee surgery. The Lobos have a big productive offensive line and continue to be one of the top rushing teams in the conference.

TCU is coming off two close overtime wins in conference play. They could just as easily be 0-2 as both games ended with controversial "no-calls" by officials. In last game at BYU, TCU trailed 34-16 in the second half but were able to mount a big comeback thanks to no less than 9 BYU defensive starters leaving the game with injuries! TCU also benefited from +3 turnovers and a 100 yard kickoff return for a touchdown. TCU's defense looked helpless giving up 614 total yards for the game. The Horned Frogs suffered a significant injury of their own, losing senior QB Tye Gunn to a shoulder injury. He is listed as doubtful this week and junior Jeff Ballard will make his first career start. I always look to play against teams who are starting an inexperienced QB against New Mexico's confusing blitzing schemes. BYU runs a similar defensive scheme now, but they are not nearly as fast or as effective as New Mexico is in it. UNM was tied for second in the nation with 42 sacks last year and already have 11 this year. Even with last weeks 50 point game at BYU, TCU still ranks only 9th in the MWC in total offense and will now be without their starting QB.

TCU's game at BYU last week lasted 4 hours and 42 minutes. The team has to feel some effects of the emotional and physical roller coaster they have been on this season. New Mexico has always played better in the second halves of seasons and in conference play under Rocky Long. The Lobos are 26-12 ATS in final 7 games of the season since 2000. They are 10-2 ATS in last 12 conference road games and 10-3 ATS in last 13 as a road dog overall! They are also 9-4 ATS since 2002 off a straight up loss. All signs point to the Lobos here.

Official Play: New Mexico +1.5 1 UNIT