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Right Angle Sports - NCAA Football - 09/15/05

RAS Official Plays - Week 3

Ole Miss at Vanderbilt (-2.5) - 9:30am Pacific - Game #115-116
At the start of the season I noted the emotional lift that Vanderbilt may get from the offseason death of would be starting senior RB Kwame Doster.  The team is finally playing with emotion and a sense of urgency.  That will come full circle today as a memorial for Doster will be held at halftime of this game.  A large group of his friends and family will be in attendance.  The team has already dedicated the season to him among numerous efforts to honor him.  The Commodores are 2-0 for the first time since 1998, with both wins coming from behind in impressive fashion on the road at Wake Forest and Arkansas.  Senior QB Jay Cutler has been superb in first two outings.  He has completed nearly 60% of his passes for 554 yards while rushing for another 88 (net) yards.  He is big and strong with a very quick release and has been more accurate than ever this year.  He came into the season with very high expectations and so far has lived up to them and then some.  His favorite target is senior Erik Davis who has 13 receptions already despite missing the 2nd half vs Wake Forest with a hamstring injury.  Vanderbilt's defense has not been spectacular, but they have definitely improved from last season and are making plays when they need to.  They did get a boost in the secondary last week with the return of starting CB Sean Dixon from a one game suspension.  He is already tied for the team lead in pass break ups with 2 despite playing in only one game.  The defense is sure to put forth their best effort with the home crowd behind them today. 

Ole Miss did not turn any heads in their 10-6 road win at Memphis two weeks ago.  Their running game was stuffed for 1.52ypc and their passing game was inconsistent at best (15-for-31, 2 interceptions).   The defense performed very well but they got a big break when Memphis starting QB Patrick Bryne was knocked out of the game in the early going.  His backup ended up throwing 2 interceptions including one at the goal line to end the game.  This will be just the second game of the season for the Rebels who are learning new schemes on both sides of the ball.

In last years meeting in Oxford, Vanderbilt really outplayed Ole Miss and held a 10 point fourth quarter lead.  Ole Miss was able to force overtime thanks to very favorable officiating on two key plays and eventually won by 3.  Obviously, Vandy is a different team this year.  They are led by an NFL caliber QB and are playing with heart and determination.  Meanwhile, Ole Miss is still a work in progress.  This game is expected to be a sell out and it is Vandy's most  anticipated home opener in more than a decade.  The halftime honoring of Doster with his family in attendance will give the team an immeasurable emotional boost.  Commodores go to 3-0!  Give the small number. 

RAS Official Play:  Vanderbilt -2.5 1 UNIT

Pittsburgh (+10) at Nebraska - 12:30pm Pacific - Game #135-136
Pitt returned 16 starters from a BCS bowl team a year ago and it is highly unlikely they will continue to play as poorly as they have in their first two games.  They ran into arguably a top 10 team in Notre Dame in the season opener and last time out just could not get anything going offensively vs an Ohio team that was sky high for ESPN home game.  Pitt's defense did rebound from an embarrassing performance in week one to put forth a very good effort vs Ohio.  They only allowed 3 points, 11 first downs, and 208 total yards.  Ohio's biggest gain of the night was 18 yards on a screen pass. Unfortunately, Pitt's all conference QB Tyler Palko had a horrendous night throwing three interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns, and Ohio got the 16-10 upset in OT.  I look for Pitt to have similar success on defense in this matchup.  They held Nebraska to only 258 total yards in last years meeting.  Meanwhile, having played on Friday, Pitt will have an extra day of work to fine tune their offense.  They have 9 starters back on that side of the ball, an experienced QB, a top flight receiver in Greg Lee, and a good offensive coordinator in Matt Cavanaugh.  Improved results should be expected.

I have not been impressed at all with Nebraska thus far.  They have really looked bad on offense.  In their opener vs I-AA Maine, their only offensive touchdown came on a 1 yard drive setup by a long punt return.  They averaged only 2.9ypc on the ground and completed just 15-of-36 passes with two interceptions against an opponent they should have dominated.  Last week vs Wake Forest they again only had one offensive touchdown which was set up by a long running play.  They only gained 234 total yards and tallied 13 first downs for the entire game.  This was against a Wake Forest defense that is nothing to write home about to begin with but was also without two starting LB's, including leading tackler Abbate due to injury.  Nebraska's defense has looked stellar so far but I do not believe they have really been tested.  Wake Forest just did not respond well to the big game atmosphere last week and never played to their ability after giving up two defensive touchdowns early on.  The Huskers have simplified their offensive scheme from a year ago but are still trying to run a passing offense with mostly players who were recruited to play in a run oriented system.  New starting QB Zac Taylor, a JC transfer, has looked limited in ability. 

Defenses dominated in last years meeting in which Nebraska won 24-17 at Pitt.  Most of the scoring was set up by turnovers and special teams.  It was only Pitt QB Tyler Palko's second career start and he threw 3 interceptions in the 1st half.  He went on to have a big year and will be looking forward to another chance to face the Huskers.  This year it is Nebraska who has the unseasoned QB and I believe Pitt's opportunistic defense (52 turnovers forced in last 25 games) has just as much chance of creating big plays as Nebraska's defense does.  Both teams have punters who were named to the Ray Guy award watch list.  Points are sure to be at a premium which makes the +10 a solid value.  In Pitt's last 46 games, they have only lost by double digits 5 times.  Take the points.

RAS Official Play:  Pittsburgh +10  1 UNIT 

UNLV at Nevada (+2) - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #177-178
Many factors contributed to Nevada's bad showing in season opening blowout loss vs Washington State.  The Wolfpack have implemented new schemes on both sides of the ball this year and were playing their first game against a superior opponent who already had a game under their belt.  Washington State has looked sharp and could be a Pac-10 dark horse.  The first score of the game came on an interception runback from a deflected pass which took much of the wind from Nevada's sails.  Additionally, starting WR Nichierien Flowers was benched for the entire first half and most of the second half for lack of effort in practice.  Flowers, a 1st team WAC performer last year is arguably the teams most talented player.  His absence definitely hurt the offense.  Nevada also played without one of its defensive leaders in junior strong safety Nick Hawthorne due to a calf injury.  His absence was magnified by other injuries in the secondary that left them with very poor depth.  After a solid week of practice, Flowers will be in the starting line up this week.  Hawthorne was just upgraded to probable on Thursday.  QB Jeff Rowe finished strong in the second half of last season and is poised for a big year.  He throws a very nice ball and will be the best QB on the field tonight.  The Nevada running game showed glimpses of promise last week despite very few opportunities due to the lopsided score.  This offense will have good balance and will put up points.  Wolfpack coaches and followers have very high expectations for this years team.  They were hugely disappointing by the opening performance, but they have had 8 days to work since then and I expect a big improvement from game one to game two.

UNLV did almost upset New Mexico on the road in season opener, but I believe that single result has left them with an overrated power rating at this stage.  Last week, the Rebels were outplayed by Idaho, a bottom level WAC team, needing several breaks and a last second field goal to win by 3 in Las Vegas.  Idaho racked up 490 total yards and only had to punt twice in the entire game.  UNLV gave up 32.3ppg last season and only return 3 defensive starters.  They still have a long ways to go on that side of the ball.  Offensively, they have looked okay, but I believe it will still be a few more weeks before they are comfortable with the complicated new spread offense that has been installed by first year head coach Mike Sanford. 

This is always a heated rivalry, but things escalated when UNLV coach Sanford instructed his team to refer to Nevada as "the team up north" instead of their name, adding "we don't want to give them the respect of calling them by their name."  This will serve as even more motivation to Nevada players who are also looking to avenge five straight losses in the series.  Crowds at Nevada's Mackay Stadium have been known to be extra rowdy when UNLV comes to town, and this year should be no different with traditional late night starting time.  The Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS vs UNLV in meetings played here in Reno.  Wolfpack win outright. 

RAS Official Play: Nevada +2 1 UNIT

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