Right Angle Sports - NCAA Football - 09/08/05
Official Plays - Week 2
San Diego State at Air Force (-8) - 11:00am Pacific
After last weeks win over Washington in Seattle, players emphatically yelled "This team is special!" as they entered the locker room. All indications so far suggest they are right. The Falcon's have 13 starters back from last season which is tied for the most ever in 22 years under Fisher DeBerry. Last year was only the third losing season in his tenure and each of the two previous times the team bounced back to win 8 or more games. They worked hard in the offseason and are a hungry football team. Air Force overcame two fumbles near the red zone in the first half and an 11 point fourth quarter deficit to beat a Washington team that played much better than expected. The Huskies got surprisingly strong QB play from junior Isaiah Stanback who consistently made sharp, accurate throws. Stanback had completed only 33.8% of his passes last season in limited duty so his effectiveness was largely unexpected. Defensively, Air Force played well, particularly vs the run which is an area they have greatly improved in since last year. Offensively, the two first half turnovers hurt, but they delivered in the clutch with two long 4th quarter touchdown drives. This is one of Air Force's best passing teams in years. Time may be running out for 4th year SDSU head coach Tom Craft. In his first season he had a good offense, but terrible defense. The second season the defense was great, and the offense was bad. Last year neither really stood out. This year the offense looks to be improved somewhat, but the defense has been decimated with 8 of their top 9 tacklers departed. All four starting LB's, including two NFL draft picks, are gone. UCLA scored with absolute ease racking up 38 points in about 2.5 quarters before calling off the dogs. The Bruins only punted once in the entire game. The Aztecs only scored 21.3ppg last year, and failed to score more than 17 in 4 of their 7 MWC games. In a three QB battle during the preseason, no one emerged as a standout starter, but sophomore QB Kevin O'Connell has the job for now. He threw a two interceptions including a key one at the end of the 1st half vs UCLA and is still somewhat green. The Aztecs have a tough task of rebounding from an embarrassing loss on national television last week in front of the sixth largest crowd in school history. SDSU will be without the services of starting RT Mike Kravetz due to a staph infection. SDSU is 2-5 ATS in last 7 conference road games, and 5-9 ATS in last 14 conference games overall. SDSU's entire group of linebackers made their first career starts vs UCLA and there has been talk during the week of two of them already losing their starting jobs. The last thing you want to face with inexperienced linebackers is the Air Force triple option. I expect the Falcons to put up strong numbers offensively. SDSU's special teams looked awful vs UCLA and have regularly been a sore spot in the Craft era. Air Force meanwhile regularly has one of the better special teams units in the country. Another advantage for the Falcons. Air Force seniors have never beaten San Diego State. The Aztecs have won the last three meetings, including a 6 point win here last year in which the Falcons committed 6 turnovers. Air Force players and coaches are not too happy about the mini streak. Expect some revenge to be had this time around. Give the points.
Official Play: Air Force -8 1 UNIT
New Mexico State at Colorado (OVER 53) - 7:00pm Pacific
Buffalo senior QB Joel Klatt has thrown for over 5,000 yards in the past two seasons, but last year was clearly a disappointment. His numbers were down from his sophomore year and he threw 4 more interceptions than touchdowns. The major reason was a depleted group of receivers that were hurt by injuries and did not play well even when healthy (39 dropped passes). This year 5 of his top 6 pass catchers are back and 8 different players had at least one reception in the season opening win vs Colorado State. The passing game still needs work as Klatt was sacked 5 times and threw one interception. This game will provide Klatt with the opportunity to have some fun and build some much needed confidence. Sophomore RB Hugh Charles made his first start last week and showed he has big play ability. He averaged 6.7 yards per carry on the ground and 11.3 yards per reception for 135 yards all purpose yards. The offensive line is said to be very athletic this year which will enable them to run misdirection plays for the first time since 2001. Offensive coordinator Shawn Watson said that CU only used about 30% of the offensive playbook vs Colorado State. He added that the team blew many opportunities for big plays and will be hungry to capitalize next game out. New Mexico State is an over team in its purest form. First year head coach Hal Mumme is best known for his days at Kentucky. His "Air Raid" offense put the ball in the air 62 times last week vs UTEP. The sheer number of passes can lead to several interceptions, first year starting QB Gill threw 3 in his debut. Mumme's philosophy holds little regard for time of possession, they are capable of quick three and outs, in fact 10 of their 16 drives last week consisted of 5 plays or less. He also does not hesitate to go for it on 4th downs, converting just 2 of 5 vs UTEP. These tendencies put all types of extra burden on their own defense as they end up on the field much longer than normal and often times in bad field position. Playing in a normal system, last years defense gave up 32.3ppg. The stats from last weeks game suggest that the NMSU defense did well holding UTEP to just over 300 total yards. However, UTEP lost two defensive line starters to injury in the first half and clearly were playing conservatively with mostly reserves in the second half. UTEP scored easily on 5 of their first 7 possessions and led 31-0 at the break. Things can and will get ugly fast if the NMSU offense is not clicking. Mumme proved last week that regardless of the situation, they will keep throwing it. The Aggies scored all 17 of their points vs UTEP in the final seven minutes of play. With an offense designed to run the ball, NMSU games still averaged 57.1ppg last year. In their last 5 games vs BCS conference opponents, the average total has been 63.2. Mumme's presence should not lower either average. NMSU only averaged 56 plays per game last year. In Mumme's first game they ran 86 plays! Under Gary Barnett, Colorado games average a total of 59.5ppg vs non-BCS teams. This total is at least 5 points off and makes for nice value on the over.
Official Play: OVER 53 1 UNIT
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