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October 25 Sheet

Boston College at Pittsburgh (-4) - 9:00am Pacific
It was not too long ago that Pitt coach Walt Harris was considered one of the top coaching prospects in the country. He still is very highly thought of despite a subpar season by the Panthers last year. After a poor start, Pitt won 6 straight games to end last season including a win over Virginia Tech and a win over NC State in the Tangerine Bowl. Dating back to last year they have now won 11 of 13 games. Their only losses this year were by 2 to Texas A&M and by 8 at Notre Dame.

After struggling early on in the season, it did not appear that QB Rod Rutherford was the right man for the starting QB job. In the first four games of the season he completed just 51.9% of his passes for 189 passing yards per game. But since then he has blossomed into a solid QB, seemingly improving with every game. In last three contests he has completed 55.2% and averaged 302.7 pass yards per game. Rutherford now ranks 27th nationally with a 138.1 QB rating. Pitt's offensive line returned all 5 starters from last year but the running game has been somewhat of a disappointment. They have shown signs of breaking out in recent weeks and this has been one of the focal points of their BYE week. They have the potential to be a physical unit.

Pitt's defense has been very impressive. They rank 6th in the country in total defense. They gave up just 2.56ypc on the ground vs Texas A&M and just 1.25ypc vs Notre Dame. Panthers outgained the Irish 402 (far more yards than any other team has gained vs ND this year) to 185 while earning 21 first downs to Notre Dame's 10 in their game in South Bend two weeks ago. Notre Dame is a physical and athletic team on both sides of the ball and Pitt controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides. This performance showed they can compete in the trenches with the best.

BC comes in at 4-2, but their four wins came vs UConn (2-5), Stanford (2-4), Central Michigan (3-4), and Navy (1-6). This will be only the second road game of the year for the Eagles and just their second game on real grass. Their only other road game and game on real grass came in a 38-6 loss at Miami. BC is 1-7 ATS as an away dog and 2-5 ATS on real grass since 2000.

BC's running game is not nearly as explosive as last year with the departure of William Green to the NFL. Additionally, they just are not getting the type of production they expected from senior QB Brian St. Pierre. If you take away the Central Michigan & Navy blowouts, in the other four games Pierre has 9 interceptions and only 4 touchdowns. BC has lost their two best defensive lineman to season ending injuries, senior Antonio Garay (2nd team Big East, team leader), and junior Doug Goodwin (led team in tackles for loss last season). Both did not play last week vs Navy and it did not matter, but it will matter the rest of the season. BC had the help of 6 Navy turnovers last week.

Pitt is coming off the all important BYE week and Walt Harris has done very well covering 7 of 9 games after BYE's. It is also homecoming for Pitt, and if that was not enough they are also looking to avenge a 45-7 loss to BC last year. They have won 11 of 13 games since that loss. Expect a win and cover for the Panthers.

Pittsburgh  1 UNIT

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