Return to Previous Week Page

October 4 Sheet

UCLA at Oregon State (-4) - 12:30pm Pacific - Saturday
I really feel the Beavers were much better than looked in their game at USC last week. The two teams are much more even than the 22 point margin would indicate. It was Oregon State's first real test of the season, first game on real grass, and they were on the road. It will serve as a good learning experience for them and I look for them to improve significantly vs UCLA today.

For having a first year starting sophomore QB, Oregon State is not afraid to throw the ball. QB Derek Anderson has already attempted 153 passes in just 5 games. He has only thrown one interception. He is not timid and the coaches seem to have plenty of confidence in him. He does not look like most 1st year starters. Anderson is big (6' 6") with a live arm and even has good mobility considering his size. He went just 8-for-30 vs USC but I saw at least 5 passes that would have been first downs that were dropped. OSU was also plagued by penalties (12 for 116 yards). Their offensive line lost a starter for the season two weeks ago and then another early on vs USC which also hurt their continuity. However, Dennis Erickson calls OL coach Gregg Smith the best in the business (college or pro) and I suspect with a week of practice the unit will still be above average. The Beavers have all four of their top receivers back from last year and will be looking to shake off their poor performance at USC. RB Steven Jackson is a very good, punishing runner. Dennis Erickson was shutout in a game as a college coach (194 games) for just the second time ever last week. Count on this offense coming to play this week.

The Oregon State defense returns 8 starters and has some talented playmakers. DT Eric Manning and CB Dennis Weathersby were both 1st Team Pac-10 last year. In last weeks game the Trojans had a TD setup after the Beavers botched a punt snap inside their own 15 yard line and had a FG setup after a Beaver fumble inside their own 20. If you take away those 10 points, OSU only allowed 12 points to a very good USC offense despite being on the field all night (USC held a 38 to 22 minute time of possession edge). That is a pretty darn good effort.

UCLA is never a team that shows a lot of passion in their play and this year they seem to be even more uninspired and lackadaisical than ever. They were life and death to beat CSU in their season opener. Were +4 turnovers in a 14 point win at Oklahoma State. Seemed to far too relaxed as a Colorado team with a backup QB coming off a 40-3 loss to USC came into the Rose Bowl and simply bullied (325 rushing yards) the Bruins around in a 31-17 win. Last week UCLA was +5 in turnovers against a SDSU team that just cannot do anything right. The Bruins are young this year. No Pac-10 team lost more lettermen than UCLA (24) and only Stanford (9) has fewer returning starters than the Bruins (11). The Bruins suffered a big blow with the loss of senior Mike Saffer (best O-linemen, AA candidate, had 26 game start streak snapped last week) to a rib injury two weeks ago and now start two freshman, two sophomores, and a senior up front. Meanwhile, their best DL Rodney Leisle (expected to start) is nursing a sore foot & knee and sat out the 2nd half last week vs SDSU. The Bruins two safety spots are employed a true freshman and a redshirt sophomore.

Head coach Toledo has received a lot of criticism and looks to be on his way out. Starting QB Paus was arrested for DUI last year and several other players received disciplinary action for incidents at local bars. UCLA would have to be a great team (top 10-15 caliber) in order for them to come into Corvallis and get a win here. From what they have shown thus far, it is highly unlikely they are that type of team.

Since taking over at OSU Dennis Erickson is 6-3 ATS after a straight up loss, 10-1 ATS as a home favorite, and 18-2 ATS on turf. Meanwhile, UCLA is 4-8-1 on turf since 1995. Bob Toledo is 5-7 ATS as a road dog, 18-28 ATS in Pac-10 games, and 3-11 ATS in last 14 Pac-10 road games! Oregon players always seem to get up for the So Cal teams (OSU 6-1 ATS vs UCLA & USC last 7) as many players not recruited by UCLA & USC end up playing here. UCLA won 38-7 here last season giving OSU a perfect revenge opportunity. Expect a solid home performance from the Beavers today.

Oregon State  1 UNIT

Return to Previous Week Page

Live Chat & Posting Forum for Sports Bettors: BettingChat.com - BettingTalk.com

COLLEGE SPORTS BETTING INFORMATION NETWORK
INFOWINS.COM

DO YOU HAVE INFORMATION TO SHARE ON YOUR FAVORITE COLLEGE TEAM?

Apply to become a contributor at INFOWIN$ and get the most valuable, comprehensive, and timely college sports handicapping information available anywhere!  Click here to visit.