| CURRENT SEASON RECORD |
| Official Plays: |
5-5 |
| Early Looks: |
14-7 |
| Overall: |
19-12 +2.65 UNITS |
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| NEXT E-MAIL UPDATE |
| *Next subscriber update (Official Plays) will be on TUESDAY before NOON Pacific. If you do not receive an update by this time, please e-mail us immediately so it can be resent. |
RAS NCAA Football - "Early Looks" Report - Week 6
About this update: The RAS "Early Looks" Report is released each Sunday Night shortly after the opening numbers for the following week's games are posted at major offshore sportsbooks. It typically will include 3-7 plays with analysis. This report focuses on beating potential line moves during the week. All plays are recommended for a 1/2 UNIT.
Money Management: Money management is even more important to the success of a sports bettor than picking winners. Please practice sound money management and always wager responsibly. Win streaks and losing streaks will occur, do not overreact to either.
Week 5 Recap: San Jose State jumped out to a 14-0 lead but only led 14-10 at halftime before scoring 17 unanswered in the second half to win going away. JC transfer CB Dwight Lowery entered the game leading the nation in interceptions and grabbed another in the first half Saturday. Early looks cooled off at 2-2 for the week.
*Lines current as of 5:25pm PST on Sunday.
| RAS "Early Looks" - Week 6 - Four Plays |
Baylor (+5.5) at Colorado - 12:30pm Pacific - Game #173-174
Baylor finally put away a team last week and notched their second win of the season but remain underrated. They have led at half-time in all three of their losses and could easily be 5-0 heading into this game. They will settle for a rare chance to go to 2-0 in Big 12 play with a win here. Baylor's new Texas Tech style offense still has not clicked on all cylinders but does show signs of promise every week. Senior QB Shawn Bell is on pace to throw for over 3,000 yards and they finally started to stretch the field with deep throws last week. Colorado has had some trouble defending the shotgun this season and Baylor uses it almost exclusively. Meanwhile, Baylor's defense has been a pleasant surprise. They are allowing just 13.4 regulation points per game. Colorado is 0-5 and has lost nine straight games dating back to last season. They have gotten improved QB play in recent weeks but still rank 109th nationally in total offense and lack production at each skill position. The Buffs have played hard in each of their losses but I am not sure how much more they have in the tank. In any event they have no business being favored against a quality opponent. Take the points.
RAS Early Look: Baylor +5.5 1/2 UNIT |
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New Mexico State (pick) at Idaho - 2:00pm Pacific - Game #165-166
I have respect for both NMSU head coach Hal Mumme and defensive coordinator Woody Widenhofer. They are each in their second year here and this team is already significantly improved. After going 0-12 last year NMSU is 2-2 with both losses coming by only 6 points to quality opponents UTEP and New Mexico. They lost by 17 to each of those teams last year. New starting QB Chase Holbrook played for Mumme at a 1-AA school two years ago before transferring here so he knows the system well. He has completed 67% of his passes and has a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio in first four games. The Aggies currently lead the nation in total offense and perhaps their best wide receiver, Miami transfer Akieem Jolla, has missed most of the season with a knee injury. Jolla was close to playing last week and could get some action in this game. Idaho is coming off their first win of the season over a horrible Utah State team 41-21. However, the game was much closer than the final score indicates. Idaho scored touchdowns on 98 yard interception return and 74 yard fumble return. The Vandals have not been good in any category this year. New Mexico State is clearly the better team and there is not much home field advantage here. Give the small number.
RAS Early Look: New Mexico State pk 1/2 UNIT |
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Missouri at Texas Tech (-4) - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #179-180
The Red Raiders are coming off a big road win over previously undefeated Texas A&M despite giving up a kickoff return for a touchdown. Tech had 14 minutes less possession in the game but still outgained A&M by 80 yards. They finally prevailed on a clutch touchdown drive in the closing stages of the game. Senior WR Jarrett Hicks (1st team Big 12 last two years) regained eligibility two games back and started for the first time last week. The Tech offense is now at full strength and good looking sophomore QB Graham Harrell now has five starts, including three tough road games, under his belt. Missouri has taken advantage of a favorable schedule to start the season at 5-0. The four 1-A opponents they have beaten so far are a combined 5-15. This will not only be their toughest opponent of the season but also just their second road game. The Tigers are just 11-21 straight up under Gary Pinkel. There are few better home teams than Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are 25-3 straight up at home since 2002 and are 20-9 ATS as a home favorite under Leach. These two have not met since a 62-31 Tiger win in 2003. Expect Texas Tech to avenge that loss with at least a touchdown win here.
RAS Early Look: Texas Tech -4 1/2 UNIT |
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Wyoming at New Mexico (+2.5) - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #193-194
It would have been easy to write off the Lobos this year. They lost to 1-AA Portland State in season opener and then lost starting QB Kole McKamey in their second game. They went on to win that game vs instate rival NMSU, an improved team. They followed that up with a decent performance vs Missouri, losing by 10, and then surprised everyone by dominating UTEP 26-13. Last week they played evenly with a very good Air Force team but costly turnovers led to 14 points and they fell 24-7. Wyoming has lost four straight close games including two in overtime. They most recently lost a heartbreaker at Syracuse in double overtime. Redshirt freshman QB Karsten Sween took over for an ineffective junior Jacob Doss last week and is slated to make his first career start this week. New Mexico's unorthodox blitzing schemes have been known to confuse even veteran quarterbacks. New Mexico head coach Rocky Long's teams have always performed better in conference play (31-20 ATS since 1999) and in the second half of the season. This year even more so since they are adjusting to new offensive coordinator Bob Toledo (ex UCLA head coach). The wrong team is favored here. Take the points.
RAS Early Look: New Mexico +2.5 1/2 UNIT |
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Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments.
Good luck!
| Cordially, |
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