| CURRENT SEASON RECORD |
| Official Plays: |
2-5 |
| Early Looks: |
8-5 |
| Overall: |
10-10 -2.25 UNITS |
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| NEXT E-MAIL UPDATE |
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RAS NCAA Football - "Early Looks" Report - Week 4
About this update: The RAS "Early Looks" Report is released each Sunday Night shortly after the opening numbers for the following week's games are posted at major offshore sportsbooks. It typically will include 3-7 plays with analysis. This report focuses on beating potential line moves during the week. All plays are recommended for a 1/2 UNIT.
Money Management: Money management is even more important to the success of a sports bettor than picking winners. Please practice sound money management and always wager responsibly. Win streaks and losing streaks will occur, do not overreact to either.
Week 3 Recap: There were some key dropped passes in the first half and some untimely turnovers in the Washington State/Baylor game but I was just way off on my prediction as the game surprisingly ended up being a defensive battle. Kentucky shut out Ole Miss is the second half and pulled away late for a 31-14 win. Thanks to the Early Looks we notched our first winning week (+0.30 UNITS) of the season and look to build on that this week.
*Lines current as of 7:20pm PST on Sunday.
| RAS "Early Looks " - Week 4 - Four Plays |
Tulsa (+5.5) at Navy - 10:30am Pacific - Game #129-130
I had success going against Tulsa two weeks ago but that was against a strong BYU team primed to make a statement. This week Tulsa actually outclasses their opponent and are still getting a considerable amount of points. The Golden Hurricane rebounded from their BYU loss with a 28-3 win over North Texas last week. Their offense was slowed early by two first half turnovers but eventually got on track. Defensively they held the Mean Green to just 89 total yards for the game. Tulsa won nine games last year including a bowl, are very experienced, and very well coached. Navy has not impressed me this year. They were all out to beat East Carolina in their season opener and in game two escaped with a 1 point win vs 1-AA foe UMass thanks to defense and special teams. Last week they blew out Stanford but do not give them too much credit for it. Stanford played without their top 3 receivers, fumbled two kickoffs, and is horrible on defense right now. Navy's new QB Brian Hampton has just barely been able to hang on to his starting job due to sloppy execution of the option and suspect passing ability. Midshipmen starting free safety DuJuan Price (leg) missed last game and remains questionable this week. Tulsa starting RB Tarrion Adams (knee) left last game and will likely not play but there is not much dropoff to the backups. Take the points.
RAS Early Look: Tulsa +5.5 1/2 UNIT |
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UCLA at Washington (+3.5) - 12:30pm Pacific - Game #143-144
The Huskies are fresh off a big 21-20 win over a tough and physical Fresno State team. It is arguably their biggest win so far under Tyrone Willingham. Just a week before they were competitive on the road at Oklahoma with many coaches still believing it was a game they could have won. This team is confident and players now have fully bought in to the new system. As reported last week the Huskies recruited very well from 2001-2004 and there is enough talent here to flirt with a winning record this season. UCLA is retooling on both offense and defense and breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. They lost some very talented players and have big shoes to fill at QB, RB, TE, LB, CB, and FS. UCLA got a big interception runback for a TD to sieze momentum in opening win vs Utah and struggled to beat lowly Rice (6 point game in 4th quarter) two weeks ago. They now go on the road for the first time this season. The Bruins are just 3-9 ATS in Pac-10 road games under Karl Dorrell. Last year Washington came into the Rose Bowl as a +21.5 dog and led by 10 late in the third quarter only to lose on a Bruin touchdown with under two minutes left. This year they are more likely to put together a complete game. Take the points.
RAS Early Look: Washington +3.5 1/2 UNIT |
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Colorado (+27) at Georgia - 9:30am Pacific - Game #157-158
Granted, Colorado has looked bad through three games but oddsmakers may be getting carried away here. First year head coach Dan Hawkins and his staff still have plenty of energy and fight in them. Hawkins has some familiarity with Georgia from bringing Boise State here last season. The Buffaloes have struggled mightily on offense and changed starting QB's after their first game which further slowed their progress. Junior Bernard Jackson so far has had most of his success running the ball but is getting a bit more comfortable each time out with his passing. One bright spot in last week's loss to ASU was the reemergence of junior RB Hugh Charles who ran for 109 yards. Meanwhile, Colorado has an experienced defense with 8 starters back that has performed admirably despite being put into bad situations by the offense. Georgia is starting a true freshman at QB and has been forced to simplify their attack. They scored 34 points but only gained 271 yards of offense last week vs UAB and converted just 2 of 9 third downs. It was a close game in the third quarter before Georgia sucked the life out of the Blazers with a blocked punt for a TD. Georgia has been stellar on defense but last week's shutout was emotionally aided by a half-time ceremony honoring late former defensive coordinator Erk Russell. Colorado will continue to improve with every game and their defense is good enough to keep them within this very high number. Take the points.
RAS Early Look: Colorado +27 1/2 UNIT |
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South Florida at Kansas (-4.5) - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #167-168
The Jayhawks lost a heartbreaker in double OT at Toledo last Friday. They outgained the Rockets by over 150 yards and forced 12 punts to only 6 of their own, but five turnovers did them in. Freshman QB Kerry Meier now has 7 interceptions in his first three games but more importantly showed leadership and guts in his first career road start. Meier threw for 243 yards, ran for another 76, and led KU on a 69 yard drive to tie the game in the final minutes. Unlike recent seasons, KU now has themselves a real QB, and he will only get better with experience. Another bright spot was the play of the KU defense. Top CB Aqib Talib returned from a two game suspension to solidify the secondary and they held Toledo to just 237 total yards. 22 of Toldeo's 37 points came off turnovers, a safety, and a TD in OT. Having played on Friday, Kansas gets an extra day to prepare for this. Meanwhile it is a sandwich situation for USF. They are coming off a very emotional win over instate rival UCF and after this will have a short week before hosting Rutgers in their Big East opener next Friday on ESPN. Freshman QB Matt Grothe is coming off a career perfrormance vs UCF but that effort will be hard to duplicate in a road night game vs a Big 12 defense. Kansas has more overall talent and is at home. Give the points.
RAS Early Look: Kansas -4.5 1/2 UNIT |
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Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments.
Good luck!
| Cordially, |
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