| CURRENT SEASON RECORD |
| Official Plays: |
0-2 |
| Early Looks: |
3-1 |
| Overall: |
3-3 -1.25 UNITS |
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RAS NCAA Football - Sunday "Early Looks" Report - Week 2
About this update: The RAS "Early Looks" Report is released each Sunday Night shortly after the opening numbers for the following week's games are posted at major offshore sportsbooks. It typically will include 3-7 plays with analysis. This report focuses on beating potential line moves during the week. All plays are recommended for a 1/2 UNIT.
Week 1 Recap: 3-1 on early looks. 0-2 on official plays. There ended up being slightly more overs than unders in week 1 and I was off in my prediction that oddsmakers had not compensated enough for the new timing rules. So far it looks like they may have compensated too much, but a few more weeks are needed to tell for sure. We were very unlucky on the UVA/Pitt total as their were two defensive scores, a third TD setup by an interception at the end of the first half, and Pitt uncharacteristically connected on two rather fortunate 70+ yard scores.
*Lines current as of 8:15pm Pacific on Sunday.
| RAS "Early Looks" - Week 2 - Four Plays |
Oregon State (+9) Boise State - 4:30pm Pacific - Game #103-104 - Thursday
The Beavers enter their fourth season under head coach Mike Riley and have by far their most complete team in his tenure. On offense they return 9 starters and get back top notch tight end Joe Newton who sat out last season with an injury. Senior QB Matt Moore is back for his second year in the system and junior RB Yvenson Bernard is primed to become one of the top players in the conference. They are calling this the best offense they have had since 2000's Fiesta Bowl champion. Defenisvely, Oregon State returns 7 starters and have added two well touted JC transfers who have already earned starting jobs. Boise State returns 18 starters and are always tough at home, but the Broncos have to replace successful head coach Dan Hawkins which makes them a question mark in the early going. The Broncos struggled against good teams last year going 0-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS vs opponents ranked in the top 70 of the Sagarin rankings. The highest rated team they beat was Nevada at #73. These two schools have had quite a rivalry going the past three seasons. OSU won by 2 in 2003, BSU won by 19 in 2004, and OSU won again last year by 3. This figures to be another highly competitive game. Despite having a good shot at finishing in the upper half of the Pac-10, the Beavers just are not getting any respect here. This line is too high, take the points.
RAS Early Look: Oregon State +9 1/2 UNIT |
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Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+9.5) - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #105-106 - Friday
Bearcat head coach Mark Dantonio is a big upgrade from his predecessor Rick Minter. Dantonio, the former DC at Ohio State, led UC to a bowl win in his first season before struggling with one of the youngest teams in Division 1 last year. They still won 4 games last year and all of the experience gained will start paying off this year. Ten starters return on defense. They recorded the school's first shutout in 11 years in season opening win over Eastern Kentucky. After the game coaches referred to the defensive unit as "special." On offense UC returns 7 starters including top 2 QB's, top 4 RB's, and 9 of top 10 receivers from last season. Pittsburgh was sky high for their home opener vs Virginia as they celebrated the 30 year anniversary of the 1976 National Championship team. The Panthers had everything go their way as they returned two interceptions for TD's and had two somewhat fortunate 70+ yard pass plays for TD's. It was more or less a "no show" performance by Virginia. Pitt won 38-20 last year at home thanks to two special teams plays leading to touchdowns. Pitt was just 1-4 ATS on the road last season and should get tested here by a live home dog.
RAS Early Look: Cincinnati +9.5 1/2 UNIT
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Tulsa at BYU (-6) - 1:00pm Pacific - Game #145-146 - Saturday
I am very high on this BYU team. Last season first year head coach Bronco Mendenhall brought in a spread offense similar to what is run at Texas Tech. After a slow start they averaged 36.0ppg in their final 8 games. This year 8 starters are back, including senior QB John Beck who is high on NFL scouting lists. They feature two very good RB's, two very good TE's, and an excellent offensive line. BYU only put up 13 points in the opener vs Arizona, but the Wildcats have one of the most underrated back 7's in the country. BYU also hurt themselves with untimely penalties, turnovers, and special teams miscues. A big surprise was the play of the BYU defense. Mendenhall is his own defensive coordinator but brought in an NFL coach to work with a secondary that struggled last year and they were stellar in the opener. BYU held Arizona to just 253 total yards, 164 yards less than their season average a year ago. If BYU's defense plays that well all season, the Cougars will win the MWC. It is hard to knock Tulsa, but I believe CUSA is an inferior conference in comparison to the MWC and they will be a little outclassed here, particularly on the road. In addition to a favorable schedule last year, Tulsa benefitted from a +19 turnover ratio (third highest in the nation). BYU is 7-3 ATS in last 10 home openers. Give the points.
RAS Early Look: BYU -6 1/2 UNIT |
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Oregon (-5) at Fresno State - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #183-184 - Saturday
The Ducks could not have looked anymore impressive in Saturday's 48-10 domination of Stanford. They ran well, passed well, and most importantly defended well. Oregon scored on all but two of their offensive possessions and held a veteran Stanford offense to just 10 points, all of which came before half-time. Junior QB Dennis Dixon was sharp, RB Jonathan Stewart is now living up to his high billing, and the group of receivers are more than adequate. The Oregon defense, bolstered by an infusion of JC transfers, looked as good as it has in years. Fresno State has been blessed with talented quarterbacks in recent years which has enabled them to play well vs quality non-conference opponents, but this year sophomore starting QB Tom Brandstater is too inexperienced and his playmaking ability is suspect. He threw for only 124 yards vs Nevada in the opener, with very few completions over 10 yards. Nevada outplayed the Bulldogs in the second half and almost came from behind for a straight up win, but a costly fumble in their own territory, their inability to stop the run, and a missed extra point hurt their chances. Oregon is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and appear to be the superior team here.
RAS Early Look: Oregon -5 1/2 UNIT |
Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments.
| Cordially, |
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