| CURRENT SEASON RECORD |
| Official Plays: |
0-0 |
| Early Looks: |
0-1 |
| Overall: |
0-1 -0.55 UNITS |
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| EARLY LOOKS RECAP |
Kent State +16.5 L
Nebraska -20.5 (now -22)
Indiana -4 (now -6)
Pittsburgh -3.5 (unchanged)
Click here for write-ups.
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| NEXT E-MAIL UPDATE |
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| Full Service - First 8 weeks only
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RAS NCAA Football - "Official Plays" Report - Week 1
About This Update: The RAS Official Plays Report will be released before NOON Pacific each Friday covering Saturday's action. There may also be additional reports during the week covering weekday games or early releases of Saturday plays. Always check for the next update time listed in each report. There will typically be 2-3 official plays per week and they are rated between 1-2 UNITS. Selectivity, a high win percentage, and detailed analysis are the focal points of this report.
Line Moves/Sportsbooks:
Five of the six plays we have relased so far this year have seen significant line movement. This aspect of the service by itself is worth the price of a subscription. I always recommend placing wagers as early as possible. Always shop for best lines. Pinnacle, 5Dimes, The Greek, and CRIS are typically the first to post college football lines & totals. I highly recommend using at least one of these four during the season. Visit www.BiggerBonus.com for sign-up info.
Paid Subscriber Benefits:
Paid subscribers received this report on Wednesday at 5:00pm Pacific well before significant line movement. Subscribe today and be the first to get the RAS plays! Other subscriber benefits include: Sunday Night Early Looks Report, Friday Added Info Report, and all 2 UNIT plays. Click here to subscribe.
BettingTalk Forum:
The half-time plays will no longer be part of the official service but I will still be posting my own personal second half plays on the www.BettingTalk.com forum when time permits. Visit the site today and join 5500+ other members in the daily handicapping discussions!
Money Management:
Money management is even more important to the success of a sports bettor than picking winners. Please practice sound money management and always wager responsibly. Win streaks and losing streaks will occur, do not overreact to either.
College Football Rule Changes:
Three rules will be implemented this season with the specific purpose of shortening games. The main reason being that television networks are complaining about games not fitting in their designated 3 hour time slots. The game clock will now run immediately when the ball is kicked off, the tee has been shortened to make for fewer touchbacks, and the clock will now run as soon as the ball is set down and deemed ready for play on any change of possession. It is estimated that the game will be shortened by 8 minutes or 13.3%. Oddsmakers have adjusted some for this, but it is my opinion that they have not adjusted enough. I estimate scoring could drop by as much as 15%. Teams will basically lose the free time out they get after any change of possession and they will be forced to burn more timeouts. The scores you see so often at the end of the first half will be cut down. Ball control offenses will be more of a priority. Officials are more than willing to enforce these new rules as they are tired of working overtime for the same amount of money. It is for these reasons that I have focused in on UNDERS for Week 1.
*Lines current as of 5:00pm PST on Wednesday.
| RAS "Official Plays " - Week 1 - Two Plays |
Virginia at Pittsburgh (Under 45.5, play to 44) - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #395-396
I wrote extensively about Virginia's offensive woes in Sunday's early looks report. The Cavs scored 26.7ppg last year but that was with an experienced senior QB running a familiar offensive system. This year they will break in a new QB and new offensive coordinator. Playing their first game on the road at night will not be easy. The Cavs also lost top RB Wali Lundi and three offensive line starters (two drafted by NFL) to graduation. They suffered another blow early in fall camp when the teams best receiver and senior captain Deyon Williams suffered an injury that will keep him out at least the first two games. Williams caught more passes than the next two receivers combined. The Virginia offense figures to struggle early. Defensively, Virginia returns 6 starters and has solid talent in their back 7 which gives them a favorable matchup against Pitt's offensive strength which should be passing.
Pitt does return an experienced starting QB, but their biggest problem on offense in fall practice has been finding playmakers. Junior Derek Kinder is the teams only experienced receiver but he is more of a possession type. Senior WR Joe DelSardo has been suspended for the opener. Touted freshman recruit Dorin Dickerson had been expected by some to earn a starting job but an injury has slowed him and he will play a only limited role if any Saturday. Little known redshirt freshman Oderick Turner has earned the start opposite of Kinder. The lack of a goto receiver will limit Pitt's explosiveness. Recent scrimmage reports also indicate that no standout running back has emerged. There is concern that Pitt's running attack may again be lackluster. Defensively, Pitt's defensive line and pash rush are said to be much improved. Senior LB's H.B. Blades (1st team Big East last two years) and Clint Session (slowed by injury last year) are poised for big years. CB Darrelle Revis (1st team Big East last year) is a lockdown type of corner.
Head coach Al Groh of Virginia and head coach Dave Wannstedt of Pittsburgh are both former NFL defensive coordinators and in fact have coached against each other in the NFL. They share many of the same philosophies and will be very familair with each others schemes. Both put emphasis on having a physical running game and both are defensive specialists. Both teams feature experienced, above average punters but are breaking in new placekickers. Pitt is really struggling to find a consistent kicker after losing projected starter Chris Abdul to injury for the season in the summer. Front runner Conor Lee continues to be plauged by a hamstring injury and as of this writing no starter has been named. Neither team has explosive playmakers at RB or WR. Look for points to be at a premium in this matchup.
RAS Official Play: Under 45.5 1 UNIT |
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USC at Arkansas (Under 51.5, play to 50) - 5:45pm Pacific - Game #401-402
This game has some similarities to USC's 23-0 season opening win at Auburn in 2003. USC is again opening their season on the road at an SEC school and replacing a Heisman winning QB as well as their top two running backs. One aspect about that 2003 game that people are forgetting is how conservative USC played offensively. They gained just 315 yards (132 below season average) and their only two touchdown drives started in the red zone after turnovers. Head coach Pete Carroll said after the Auburn game, "We didn't do anything fancy." and he figures to employ a similar strategy here. One luxury USC had in 2003 was an experienced offensive line with 4 returning starters and a 5th who had started in 2001. This year they have to replace not only 3 starters, but 3 NFL draft picks on the OL, including two that left early. Starting QB David Booty is a gifted athlete but his decision making, ability to improvise, and lack of experience are question marks. I attended USC's final scrimmage and backup QB Mark Sanchez appeared more impressive to me. Don't expect coaches to ask too much from Booty in his first college start in a very hostile environment. USC is coming off their worst defensive season ever under guru Pete Carroll. The unit is loaded with speed and talent and will almost certainly be improved if not dominant.
Arkansas paid big bucks to get well regarded defensive coordinator Reggie Herring (led NC State to #1 defense in 2004) here prior to last season. He has now had a full season to implement his schemes and has 9 starters back. Arkansas allowed only 16.6ppg in their final five games last year and appear primed for another step forward. Offensively, Arkansas was a mess last season. The team passed for only 144 yards per game and starting QB Robert Johnson had more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (5). The Razorbacks averaged 25.7ppg last year but that drops to 19.0ppg if you subtract the 93 points scored in two games vs I-AA Missouri State and lowly UL-Monroe. Ten starters are back but they must learn an entirely new system and may struggle with it early. Johnson was surprisingly able to hold on to his starting job due to preseason injury to sophomore Casey Dick and true freshman Mitch Mustain just being too inexperienced, although he may still see playing time. Arkansas star RB Darren McFadden (1st team SEC last year) had surgery on his toe last month and although he was seen jogging on the practice field this week, he remains doubtful to play. It is unlikely that Arkansas will be able to put up many points against USC's defense.
This is a huge revenge game for Arkansas, especially for the defense that gave up 70 points in last years meeting. With it being the season opener and a home night game, the Hogs defense will have an abundance of emotion to play with and may even perform better than they actually are. Meanwhile, word from USC camp is that head coach and defensive coordinator Pete Carroll has called every one of his recruits and told them to make sure they watch this game. This tells me he is very high on his defense. Play the under.
RAS Official Play: Under 51.5 1 UNIT |
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Good luck!
| Cordially, |
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