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August 21 Sheet

New Mexico (+13) at NC State - Saturday - 1:30pm Pacific
Neither the Lobos or the Mountain West Conference is getting much respect here. New Mexico started last season 1-3 as starting QB Caamano completed just 35% of his passes and threw 5 interceptions to just 2 touchdowns in the first 4 games. He was replaced by then sophomore Casey Kelley who went on to start the final seven games. With Kelley starting, New Mexico finished the season 5-2. The only two losses with him as a starter were to then undefeated BYU by 4 points, and vs Colorado State by 7 points. The Lobos could have easily won both of these games. They had more first downs and total yards than both BYU & CSU but were hurt by -3 turnovers vs the Cougars, and -4 turnovers vs the Rams. BYU also was fortunate to convert on a 4th & 11 late in the game on their way to a come from behind victory. With Kelley starting, the Lobos averaged 31.3 points and 402.7 yards of total offense per game. Kelley is back as a junior and looks poised for an even better year. He is a coaches son and makes good decisions. He often gets the team out of bad plays and into good ones. He has reportedly looked sharp in fall camp. New Mexico returns 6 starters on offense including their top two receivers from last year. Running back is somewhat of a question mark. Seldom used senior RB Quincy Wright has been named the starter, he has an incredible 10.3 yard per carry average but just 16 career attempts. This is a capable offense.

New Mexico ranked 18th in the nation in total defense last year and 5th in the nation in run defense. This is almost unheard of for a team playing in the Mountain West! They are one of only 8 teams in the country to finish in the top 20 in total defense for two straight years. The system they have in place is obviously working. They return 6 starters on defense and coach Long says they will have an experienced player at 10 of 11 starting spots. New Mexico played as many as 25 different players on defense in games last year so losing defensive starters does not hurt them as much as most teams. These guys know the system well and always play hard. They love to stunt, shift, and blitz from everywhere. They are very good at confusing opposing offenses. They registered a MWC tops 2.4 sacks per game last year. Their unorthodox schemes could pose big problems for NC State's young offensive front.

The Wolfpack offense will be starting a sophomore converted defensive back at tailback, a redshirt freshman at full back, and three offensive lineman who will be making their first career starts. Both starting guards are converted defensive lineman and the starting center is a true sophomore. Even the two returning offensive line starters have flipped flopped right and left tackle positions. Coach Amato called it "on the job training." Missed blocking assignments could be a major issue. Needless to say, the Wolfpack may start the game off with a very conservative gameplan on offense.

I was not too impressed with NC State last year. They were beaten soundly in their bowl game by an average Pitt team 34-19. Of their 7 wins last year, only the victory at Florida State (Who didn't beat the Seminoles last year?) was of any quality. This is despite having the benefit of ranking 13th nationally in turnover ratio. Of their other six wins, only Wake Forest had a winning record and that was due in large part to 3 wins vs App State, Duke, and N. Illinois.

I do not see NC State improving much from last year. They return 6 starters on offense and defense but lost some very good players. RB Ray Robinson (led team in rushing & receptions), TE Willie Wright (go-to receiver, led team in TD catches), and LB Lavar Fisher (all-time leading tackler, 1st team All-American) will be very difficult to replace. In addition to Fisher, three other Wolfpack defenders from last year are in NFL camps right now. Instead of hiring a new defensive coordinator to replace the departed Buddy Green, Amato decided to leave the signal calling to a group of 4 assistants. It will be interesting to see how that works out.

State has been hurt by injuries and academic casualties as well. Projected starting tailback Contra Jackson and starting defensive end Terrance Chapman (led team with 8 sacks last year) both were declared ineligible. Starting kicker Adam Kiker (back, doubtful, may be able to kick extra points), #3 WR Dovonte Edwards (knee, doubtful), and defensive back A.J. Davis (#1 recruit, out for the year) are among the injured.

The Wolfpack appear to have an average running game and an average defense. If their pass attack is not in midseason form (Rivers completed only 55.6% of his passes in three fall scrimmages, compared to 65.2% in regular season last year) they could be vulnerable to a straight up loss here. Some rain is in the forecast for Saturday which could make it harder on the passing game.

The Lobos are 8-4 ATS the last three years as a road dog. This years team is said to have a quiet confidence and a great work ethic. Head coach Rocky Long calls this the most talented team he has had here. Last years 5-2 finish that could have easily been 7-0 gives this program every reason to be optimistic. I believe Long knew what he was doing when he went looking for this extra game. New Mexico does not get many chances for national exposure. The Wolfpack are giving too many points away for an August season opener. Amato is only 2-4 ATS as a double digit favorite. Look for the Lobos to stay well within this big number. Take the points.

New Mexico 1 UNIT

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