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October 11 Sheet

NC State (-6) at North Carolina - Saturday - 9:00am Pacific
The Wolfpack have done nothing wrong this year and have given every indication this could be a special season for them. They came out of the gate quickly with an easy win over New Mexico, followed it up with quality wins over Wake Forest (won at Purdue & at Georgia Tech) and at Texas Tech (beat Texas A&M last week). They have taken care of business against all of their lesser opponents and are off to a 6-0 start. No question head coach Chuck Amato would be elected if he ran for Mayor. He is that popular and then some for the great job he has done here.

Third year starting junior QB Phillip Rivers simply ranks first in the country in passing efficiency with a 177.4 rating. Rivers can make plays with the best of them. We knew what to expect from him when the season began, but his supporting cast was more of a question mark. The wide receivers have really played better than expected. Jerricho Cotchery, Bryan Peterson, Sterling Hicks, and Dovonte Edwards all have 11 catches or more and at least one TD catch. Starters Cotchery & Peterson are averaging an impressive 22.1 and 23.3 ypc respectively. The running game has also been a surprise as true freshman "TD" McLendon (tied for 3rd in nation with 10 rushing TD's) has been a force. The Wolfpack rank 27th in the country in total offense.

Another surprise has been the play of the Wolfpack defense. In 2000, NC State gave up 28.2 points per game, last year they improved dramatically to just 21.4 points per game. This year they have improved to 19.7 points per game and rank 13th in the country in total defense. The only team who has moved the ball on them consistently was Texas Tech but I really felt that had a lot to do with the game being played on artificial turf. It was the Pack's first game on turf since 1997 (no current players had ever played on it) and their only one this season. They still managed an impressive road win.

North Carolina comes in with a 2-3 record. Both wins coming on the road at Syracuse and last week at Arizona State. They are 0-3 at home. The loss to Texas was understandable but home losses to Miami Ohio & Georgia Tech (particularly off a BYE week) were disappointing.

Last week UNC had no business being in the game at ASU. The Sun Devils ripped the Tar Heel defense for 657 total yards, but suffered 5 turnovers and missed 4 field goals (3 inside of 40 yards). ASU only scored points on 5 of 10 red zone opportunities. ASU lost a starting CB early in the game to injury and the backup was burned for four TD passes including a 65 and 74 yarder in the 2nd half. ASU still had a 178 total yard edge and 15 more first downs but still lost by 3.

The UNC defense is giving up 31.4ppg (9 more than any other ACC team) & 451 yards per game (106th in the country). This does not bode well for a team returning from a cross country road trip to face the high powered Wolfpack offense coming off a BYE week.

NC State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after a BYE week and 8-4 ATS in road games under Chuck Amato. Meanwhile, UNC HC Bunting is 2-7 ATS at home including 0-3 ATS at home this season. The straight up winner has covered six in a row in this series. Amato is said to put an extra emphasis on rivalries. Would not be surprised to see a few trick plays ready for this game. Their offense only scored 9 points last year vs UNC's then talented defense but will have much greater success this time around. I usually prefer staying away from big rivalry games but I see the Wolfpack with too much advantage here and they will not hesitate running the score up if given the chance.

North Carolina State  1 UNIT

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