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November 1 Sheet

Kentucky at Mississippi State (+5) - 11:30am Pacific
Still believe the Bulldogs are a much better team than they are getting credit for. I mentioned two weeks ago that three of four losses have been on the road (Auburn only home loss) & three of four losses have been vs ranked teams (at South Carolina only unranked loss, at LSU & at Oregon). Furthermore, they turned the ball over 18 times in their four losses making each seem much worse than it actually was.

Bulldogs head into this game on a two game win streak after wins vs Troy State and at Memphis. The defense has really come to life in last two games and looked more like what is expected of a Joe Lee Dunn unit. Three weeks ago they held Troy State to more than 200 yards below their season average. In last game they shut Memphis out for nearly the final three quarters, forced 5 turnovers, and held the Tigers to 1-of-12 on 3rd down conversions.

Miss State starting QB Kevin Fant was a late scratch from the Memphis game, but as mentioned two weeks ago he played probably his best game of the season October 12th vs Troy State going 22-for-32, with 1 TD, and no interceptions. It was said at the time that Fant could have played vs Memphis in an emergency situation. He has had two weeks since that game to recover from an ankle and achilles tendon injuries. Earlier this week, he was downgraded from probable to questionable. Head coach Sherrill stated that an MRI on Tuesday revealed no damage at all and that Fant can do everything well except run straight ahead at full speed. With Miss State winless in SEC play, I fully expect we will see Fant as the starting QB and he is listed as the starter on the depth chart for this game. We are getting an extra point or two because of this QB situation. Worst case scenario being redshirt freshman QB Kyle York will get his second consecutive start and third of the season, but also first at home.

UK has to come into this game a bit drained. The Wildcats have dropped three of their last four games. The only win in that stretch came at Arkansas in a game they were outgained 515 to 332. Defensively, Kentucky has given up over 1000 yards in their last two games. They rank 97th in the country in yards per game allowed. Miss State comes in ranked 25th. UK QB Jared Lorenzen has not had success vs the Bulldog defense. In his two games prior vs Miss State he has completed less than 50% of his passes and thrown 6 interceptions. The Bulldogs have dominated the series winning three straight and four of five. Miss State is 8-3 vs UK all time in Starkville.

Miss State is coming off an all important BYE week. This is a very fresh team and will be eager to play their first SEC home game since the Auburn debacle back in mid September. In addition to getting healthy, Sherrill said they used most of the extra time to work on basic technique & footwork with the offensive line and secondary. Bulldogs are a super 15-7 (68%) ATS after a BYE week and 11-7 ATS (4-2 L6) as a home dog under Jackie Sherrill. Take the home team and the points.

Mississippi State  1 UNIT

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