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October 18 Sheet

Mississippi State (+2) at Memphis - 5:00pm Pacific
I believe Miss State is a much better team than what they have shown so far. They come in to this with just a 2-4 record but all four loss have been tough games. Three of four losses have been on the road (Auburn only home game) & three of four losses have been vs ranked teams (at South Carolina only unranked opponent, at LSU & at Oregon). Furthermore, they played at Oregon without starting QB Kevin Fant & have turned the ball over 18 times in their four losses.

Fant is coming off probably his best game of the season, a 24-for-35, 1 TD, 0 INT performance vs Troy State last week. Unfortunately, the Bulldogs lost 4 fumbles in the game and only ended up with a TD & FG for 11 points. Luckily, the defensive unit also had their best game of the season holding Troy State to just 189 total yards, a season low for them. Troy State came in averaging 400 yards of total offense per game. Including 347 at Nebraska, 426 at UAB (a team who beat Memphis), 313 at Iowa State, and 300 at Missouri. Joe Lee Dunn's defense can always compete.

Memphis is just a plain bad football team. Head coach Tommy West has always been a defensive minded, conservative coach, but this year has attempted to open up the offense with a spread pass attack. I have never liked West much and this year his team is 2-4 with only wins coming vs Murray State & Tulane. Losing to UAB is inexcusable, and the Tigers just did not lose, they were beaten soundly by the Blazers 31-17, outgained by 63 yards. Following that game Memphis was sky high for an ESPN game vs Louisville, had many breaks in the game, but still could not win after falling behind by 18 in the 4th quarter. The Tigers are well on their way to another losing season.

Miss State got some much needed confidence with last weeks win and will look to build on it this week. The Bulldogs have beaten Memphis 8 straight times. Weather forecast calls for 70% chance of showers which means this game might be decided in the trenches where Miss State from the SEC should have an advantage. Memphis ranks 105th in the country in run defense. Miss State is not much better at 96th but that is skewed due to their tough schedule of predominantly running teams (LSU, Auburn, Oregon, South Carolina). Bulldogs are 22-13 as an away dog under Jackie Sherrill & 25-17 ATS vs non-conference teams.

Mississippi State 1 UNIT

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