Xavier at Mississippi State (-4.5) - 5:00pm Pacific

I had anticipated it would take some time for this Bulldogs team to come together, but they are already playing great basketball.  A week ago, they did not play their best but still were able to rally from a nine point second half deficit to beat a very good UAB team.  They overcame a 38 point performance from Blazer guard Mo Finley.  Three games back Miss State ended Western Kentucky's 39 game home winning streak with a quality six point road win.  They are now a perfect 6-0 on the season.  Baylor transfer Lawrence Roberts is the real deal.  He is averaging a double double for the season, 15.2ppg & 11.3rpg.  Roberts hit the game winner vs UAB and finished with 19 points & 9 rebounds despite playing only 27 minutes due to foul trouble.  A surprise so far this year has been the play of junior guard Winsome Frazier.  A preseason injury to Ontario Harper has opened up more playing time for Frazier, and he has taken advantage of the opportunity.  He is leading the team in scoring and steals through the first six games and has looked good doing it.  Senior guard Timmy Bowers, a preseason all-conference pick, is playing solid as expected.  He is second on the team with a 16.2ppg average and leads the team with 4.8 assists per game.  Seven foot junior Marcus Campbell is providing quality starter minutes (11.7ppg, 6.3rpg) as is senior forward Brandon Vincent (7.7ppg, 7.0rpg).  Iowa State transfer junior G/F Shane Power (8.0ppg, .455 from behind the arc) and good looking freshman point guard Gary Ervin (3.5 assists, in just 19 minutes per game) provide quality depth.  They can also steal some inside minutes with senior F/C Lincoln Smith off the bench. 

 

Xavier heads in with a 4-2 record and will be playing their fourth consecutive game away from the Cintas Center.  After starting 3-0 vs cupcake opponents at home, the Musketeers gave a poor showing at Ball State losing by 12.  They then rallied from a 14 point half-time deficit vs Indiana only to lose in overtime.  They finally got their first road win over Miami, Ohio on Tuesday in ugly fashion.  The game was actually tied 24-24 with 13 minutes to play in the 2nd half, before Xavier broke it open and won 55-36.  Miami-Ohio finished a miserable 1-for-12 from 3-point range which hurt their chances considerably.  Xavier was not much better, finishing 3-for-16 from behind the arc.  The Musketeers got a combined 2 points and 3 rebounds from starting forward Anthony Myles and starting center Will Caudle in the win.  That just is not going to get it done.  With the lack of an inside presence, lead guards Romain Sato (38% FG) and Lionel Chalmers (32% FG) have struggled.  Despite playing all undersized teams thus far, Xavier has a rebounding margin of just +1.5, and Sato, a guard, leads the team in rebounding.  Mississippi State comes in with a rebounding margin of +8.8 and should control the glass in this matchup.

 

Miss State handled Xavier pretty easily in last years meeting which was held on a neutral court in New York.  The Bulldogs led by 18 at half and won by a final margin of 10.  I see no reason why a similar result should not be expected on their home court.  Both teams lost a lot from last year but the addition of Roberts for Miss State has taken pressure off of others and allowed everyone to adjust to their new roles well.  The same cannot be said for Xavier who lost David West and his 20.1ppg, 11.8rpg, 52 blocks, and 42 steals (all team highs).  They have no one even close to replace him.  Under Rick Stansbury, Miss State is 65-13 at home at home and 35-3 at home vs non-conference opponents.  Despite failing to cover in all three lined home games this season, Miss State is still 23-13 ATS (63.8%) at home in past 2+ seasons.

 

Mississippi State  1 UNIT