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December 18 Sheet

Louisville vs Marshall (-2.5) - Wednesday - 5:00pm Pacific - GMAC Bowl
It has been another great season for the Thundering Herd. They finished the regular season with a 10-2 record. Their only losses were at Virginia Tech (-3 turnovers, only outgained by 20 yards) and a fluke loss at Akron. In that game the Zips started with a 98 fumble return for a TD and Marshall ended up with 5 lost fumbles, 7 turnovers in all, and lost star QB Leftwich to injury. I am more than willing to toss that game out the window.

QB Byron Leftwich controversially was not named a finalist for the Heisman and therefore was not invited to New York for the award presentation. The only knock on him is he plays in a small conference. After injury in Akron game he sat out the next week but has played in last three games completing 67-of-84 (79.7%) passes for over 800 yards in final two games. His QB rating in last two games has been 179.2 and 183.7. The guy is something special and the offensive system he plays in will score points on anyone.

The main knock on Marshall is their lack of defense, particularly run defense where they rank 91st in the country. However, the entirely new Louisville offensive line has struggled all season. The Cardinals rank 101st in the country in rushing offense and only average 3.1 yards per carry. In fact, QB Ragone led the team in rushing yards in their final game of the regular season. Therefore, Louisville may not be able to exploit Marshall's weak run defense.

Furthermore, the Ragone led pass offense is not anything close to what it has been in the past. Lack of running game and poor pass protection has given Ragone (sacked 43 times this year) very little time to throw. He is also without three of his favorite targets. 1st team C-USA tight end Ronnie Ghent was lost to a midseason injury, starting WR Dontay Spillman (led team in receiving early on) was suspended and later dismissed three games into the season, and top WR Damian Dorsey (almost twice as many receptions, receiving yards, and TD's than anyone on the team) was recently dismissed. Louisville no longer has the offensive firepower to match points with Marshall.

The Herd feature 10 senior starters and will certainly want to go out on a winning note in Byron Leftwich's final game. A point will be made for his Heisman snubbing and the Louisville defense will be the one who pays the price. Something just has not been right with the Cardinals this year. I do not think they have much heart. They are undisciplined and penalty ridden as ever. Their lone quality win of the season was over Florida State in a rainstorm (weather is a great equalizer). They went 0-2 vs top 2 C-USA teams and should not have beaten 4th place Southern Miss. Other than FSU & USM their five other wins came over Army, Duke, East Carolina, UAB, and Memphis (combined record 15-45). Louisville has lost 3 of their last 4 bowl games SU and ATS. Marshall has won and covered four straight bowl games including 48-29 win over Louisville in 1998 Motor City Bowl. Give the small number.

Marshall  1 UNIT

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