March 3 Sheet

Ohio State at Penn State (-2.5) - 9:15am Pacific
The Nittany Lions are coming off a clutch road win at Iowa and now face another must win situation if they are to finish 8-8 in Big 10 conference play and have a legitimate shot at an NCAA tournament bid. In addition to postseason implications, it will be an emotional senior day for three key PSU starters Joe Crispin, Titus Ivory, and Gyasi Cline-Heard who collectively are the heart and soul of this team. Penn State already beat the Buckeyes once this season in Columbus 78-75 on January 10. Making the trip to State College is never easy and Ohio State has not played since a win at Northwestern last Saturday. The Buckeyes could be a little rusty, especially considering the early start time of the game. Ohio State is 4-3 on the road in Big-10 play but all four wins came vs teams that are reeling (Iowa by 1, Purdue by 1, Minnesota, and Northwestern). The most important factor here is that this game means very little to Ohio State as they have already assured themselves a trip to the Big Dance. Penn State has not and they will be all out with the home crowd behind them. Nittany Lions win.  Penn State  1 UNIT

March 4 Sheet

Florida -5 (9:00am Pacific)
The Gators are playing the best ball of any SEC team right now and have been superb at home. Head coach Billy Donavan is proving to be in the upper echelon of coaches and deserves coach of the year consideration at least within the SEC. Florida lost a 1 point heartbreaker this year in Lexington and will turn the tables today.

NC State +2 (10:30am Pacific)
I look for the Wolfpack to close out a frustrating regular season with a win on senior day here. They are fully healthy now with Archie Miller playing significant minutes in recent games and reportedly recent practices have been best of the season. They took the Deacons to overtime in first meeting at Wake and have beaten 4 ACC teams here by double digits. I played this one on the money line (+115). 

San Diego +4 (7:50pm Pacific)
The Toreros have had a disappointing season considering they returned 5 starters from a 20 win team that actually swept Gonzaga last year. They are very well coached by Wooden deciple Brad Holland and have been pointing to this tournament (which they host) for quite some time. I believe Gonzaga is a bit overrated this year as they did lose 4 starters and the heart and soul of their team from last year. Take the points and look for a mild upset.

March 7 Sheet

Pittsburgh (+2.5) vs Miami, Fla - 4:00pm Pacific
Pitt has had a disappointing season partly due to losing F/C Chris Seabrooks early on to suspension and having numerous minor injuries to key performers Greer, Hawkins, and Knight. They finished the regular season well winning three of their last four and although I see these two teams about even talentwise, I believe Pitt is going to play much better in this tournament setting. Pitt leading scorer Ricardo Greer is a gamer and as a senior this is his last hoorah. He is going to provide valuable leadership here. Center Isaac Hawkins is back healthy and ready to close out his career in fine fashion as well. Freshman guard Julius Page emerged as a force in the second half of the season and point guard Brandin Knight is solid. Another freshman, Jaron Brown came on late in the year averaging 11.5ppg in last two games. Zavackas is a deadly shooter and Nebraska transfer Chad Brown is reliable off the bench. The Panthers are very well coached and won the only meeting of the season vs Miami 62-51 never trailing. Miami got hot at the end of the season which is why we are getting points in this spot, but I believe that was mostly due in part to a favorable schedule (7 of last 11 at home) and a generally weak Big East this year. They are still a very young team with only one senior on its roster in center Dwayne Wembley (7.0ppg). They have been successful with streaky shooting but I do not think they are going to last long here. Pitt shoots better from the field (.459 to .415), hold opponents to lower FG % (.422 to .431), and rebounds better (+1.2 margin to -2.1 margin). Panthers move on to second round.  Pittsburgh  1 UNIT

March 8 Sheet

Auburn vs Tennessee (-6.5) - 10:00am Pacific
The Vols head into this game with solid momentum having won three straight games to end the regular season, including two on the road. They have been knocked out of the last two SEC tournaments in the first round and both times as the #1 seed. They also still feel like they have something to prove after their dismal conference play this season. No one can question their talent level and they definitely will be focused here. They should have everything their own way with the tournament being held in Nashville, TN. Furthermore, Auburn guard Adam Harrington was quoted as saying that the Tigers were happy to draw Tennessee because of their recent struggles. His comments have stirred up the Vols even more and they have promised to make him pay for it today. Auburn has had a nice overachieving year but they bow out in the first round here. Give the points. Tennessee 1 UNIT

St. Bonnie vs UMass (pick) - 11:20am Pacific
I really believe that the Minutemen had an outstanding season considering their dreadful non-conference record to start the year. They won 11 of their first 14 conference games before losing the last two at first place St Joe's and vs St. Bonnie on Saturday. They will get a chance here to avenge that senior day loss as well as a 4 game losing streak overall to the Bonnies. The initial meeting at St. Bonnie was very close also with the Bonnies stealing it on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Despite that loss, UMass posted an impressive 6-3 road record in conference play compared to a dismal 2-6 conference road record for St. Bonnie. The Minutemen are completely healthy and with three senior starters are ready to make a splash here in the A-10 tournament which I feel they have a chance at taking considering they own wins over Xavier (twice) and Temple. St. Bonnie has been battling all kinds of injuries to just about every key player most notably for this game is starting center Peter Van Passen (3rd on team w/ 14.2ppg, 2nd on team w/ 6.1rpg) who will sit out his second consecutive game (ankle/stress fracture). They played well without him on Saturday, but his absence will be felt more today as UMass has significant size advantages inside and should be able to find a better way to utilize them today. UMass  1 UNIT

March 9 Sheet

Charlotte (-2) vs Southern Miss - 2:30pm Pacific
I remain very high on the 49ers. Every time I watch them play I am more impressed. They are talented inside and out with plenty of depth. They can shoot the 3-point shot with the best of them and really seem to like playing at Freedom Hall in Louisville. Charlotte has now won 7 of their last 8 games and 9 of their last 11. They have been shooting lights out recently averaging 13+ 3-pointers per game in last three outings! Forward Rodney White (19.3ppg, double double Thursday in round 1) was named national freshman of the year this week by ESPN.com. No other team in C-USA tournament history has more wins (11) or championship game appearances (3) than Charlotte. Furthermore, head coach Bobby Lutz is now 7-1 in C-USA tournament play and was 18-0 in conference tournament play at his previous head coaching job at a smaller school. Southern Miss just does not have the same type of players as Charlotte and the 49ers already beat them this year 71-60 despite playing without leading scorer Rodney White. With White playing and added focus with the season on the line, 49ers should take this handily. Charlotte has a real chance of taking home the championship on Saturday. Charlotte  2 UNITS

March 10 Sheet

Ole Miss (+5.5) vs Florida - 10:00am Pacific
The Rebels are good enough to beat Florida today. The Gators rallied nicely from their early and midseason injuries and have been on quite a run but are not the same team away from home. They were taken to the wire by Alabama on Friday and will be tested further today. Ole Miss has only lost 6 times all year and have won 9 of last 11 games. They boast an SEC 1st teamer in Rahim Lockhart, SEC freshman of the year in Justin Reed, and SEC coach of the year in Rod Barnes. You could say it has been there year. They fell behind early and never could recover in meeting at Florida two weeks ago but will fare much better in revenge situation here on a neutral court. Look for Rebels to play their tempo and show off their outstanding defense. Take the points. Mississippi  1 UNIT

March 12 Sheet

UC Irvine (+13) at Tulsa - NIT - 5:30pm Pacific
The Anteaters have been a personal favorite of mine for the last several weeks and clearly have had an outstanding season. They posted a 25-4 record overall, setting a school record for wins and for the first time ever won the Big West regular season title with a 15-1 conference record. Guard Jerry Green won conference player of the year honors and head coach Pat Douglass won coach of the year. They both were named mid-major player and coach of the year respectively by College Hoops Insider. Irvine posted a quality win over tournament bound Cal, won at Pac-10 foe Washington, and lost in the final few possessions at UCLA. Their record was not the only thing impressive. The heart they showed in coming back from large deficits and winning close games this year was incredible. They won 16 games by 5 points or less which is always the sign of a good team. Playing on the road did not seem to bother them either as they went 10-2 with only losses coming at UCLA and at Utah State, both tournament teams. Tulsa hosted the WAC tournament and all they had to do was beat Hawaii to make the big dance but they could not do it. Hawaii sent the game to overtime with a driving lay-up with under 2 seconds to play and won in overtime. The Golden Hurricane's mental psyche for this game is highly suspect. Irvine meanwhile is happy to be here as it is their first trip to the postseason since 1986. Pat Douglass is good enough of a coach to get his team to put the embarrassing Pacific loss on Friday behind them and be focused for this. Therefore I am willing to dismiss their recent sloppy play. They are still an extremely hungry team that is seeking national recognition for their accomplishments. Irvine's solid defense (opponents shot .398 from the field), solid 3-point shooting (.397, 1st in Big West), solid free throw shooting (74.1%, 1st in Big West) and goto player Green (19.2ppg) make them very capable of an outright win here. The huge number spells outstanding value. UC Irvine  2 UNITS

March 15 Sheet

Creighton (-1) vs Iowa - 11:40am Pacific
The Blue Jays had a great season and were clearly tops in the Missouri Valley Conference. They have all the ingredients for success in the tournament. A talented all senior starting backcourt, six seniors in the rotation, and the experience of having played in the Big Dance in both of the last two seasons. Their non-conference schedule was good enough to earn them a #23 RPI ranking, four notches ahead of the Hawkeyes. The Blue Jays are deep (10+ man rotation) and few teams are as hot (have won 11 of last 12 games) heading into this. They had a two year series with Iowa going that was ended after last year in part due to the fact that the Blue Jays won both (home and away) games! Count on the fact that they will not be intimidated here. Creighton fans really feel this is the best team they have had in some time and are eager to finally break through the first round. Iowa has got to be both mentally and physically drained from 4 games in 4 days Big 10 tourney run. They cannot be too happy about drawing a Thursday game and a letdown here has to be expected. Luke Rucker was declared doubtful by Steve Alford and even if he did play his effectiveness would be suspect. Dana Altman is a great coach and look for the Blue Jays to take this. Creighton 1 UNIT

Missouri (-1.5) vs Georgia - 7:10pm Pacific
The Tigers are a very dangerous team with loads of talent. Amazingly they recovered from the simultaneous losses of leading scorer Kareem Rush to injury and second leading scorer Clarence Gilbert to suspension and were still able to earn an NCAA berth. Both have since returned and each had a 30 point game in the Big 12 tournament. Other players gained experience and confidence during their absences and the team is now much better for it. The Tigers had a win in hand vs eventual tournament champion Oklahoma in the Big 12 quarterfinals but let it slip away in the final seconds after failing to secure possession on a missed free throw. Nonetheless, I believe they served notice that they are playing well. This is a team that has been knocked out of the first round two straight years and is hungry for a win. I feel they are much more tough minded and team oriented than Georgia. Not a single Bulldog player has played in an NCAA tournament and Georgia head coach Jim Harrick is not going to turn any heads with his brightness. The Bulldogs lost 7 out of 10 to end the season without any excuses and could not even beat scholarship short LSU in the SEC tournament to secure their NCAA bid. Everyone talks about UGA's strength of schedule, but Mizzou's non-conference schedule included Virginia, Indiana, Illinois, Syracuse, and Iowa with only one game being at home. If Quin Snyder has learned anything from Coach K, he will get this Tigers squad over the 1st round hump. Missouri  1 UNIT

March 16 Sheet

Virginia (-3) vs Gonzaga - 9:25am Pacific
I'm in love with the ACC this year. They went 2-1 yesterday and I am expecting a 3-0 sweep today. Virginia posted a 9-7 conference record this year that included wins over the big 3 Duke, North Carolina (by 20 points), and Maryland (by 21 points). There non-conference schedule included big wins over Purdue, Tennessee, and Missouri. That is easily good enough of a resume for me. The early season win over the Vols (when Tennessee was playing well) in a tournament like atmosphere was particularly impressive. Head coach Pete Gillen has coached in 8 NCAA tournaments and has an 8-8 record which is excellent considering the smaller schools he brought in. Gonzaga has reached the sweet 16 two years in a row, but as we mentioned last time 4 starters are gone from that team. This is a much younger group that got zero quality non-conference wins this year. They beat up on a fairly weak WCC league this year but I do not like their chances against a quality ACC team here. The Zags do not have a player over 6-8 to take advantage of Virginia's lack of size and therefore will be playing right into the Cavaliers hands. Virginia just has too much talent and athleticism to not win this convincingly. The Cavs have 3 seniors and 2 juniors in their top 8 so experience should not be an issue. With all 5 starters in double figures, this is a difficult team to prepare for. Look for Gillen to have his team come out aggressively and never look back. Virginia  2 UNITS

Xavier vs Notre Dame (pick) - 7:10pm Pacific
The Irish had a good year going 19-9 overall and winning all of the big games when they needed to. They knocked off eventual Big East champ Boston College in their only meeting of the year and closed out the season winning 10 of their last 13 games despite dropping two of last three. Forward Troy Murphy possesses enough star power for two teams. He is incredible having scored in double figures in 93 of 94 college games. Definitely someone you want on your side. Newcomer Humphrey turned into a perfect fit at the other forward spot and the remaining supporting cast all have had career years. Xavier has not impressed me much this year and ended their season with a disappointing 4-4 stretch. On top of that they only have one senior who is a major contributor. I like the Irish to reach sweet 16. Notre Dame  1 UNIT

March 17 Sheet

USC (+2) vs Boston College - 2:30pm Pacific
We really missed the boat on USC in the first round but I still feel there is enough value leftover with them here. I really believe that the Trojans are one of the hungriest of any major conference team in the tournament. They have had the same starting 5 for two years running and after injuries led to a disappointment last year, and suspensions and turmoil led to a midseason slump this year, they now appear to have everything together. They won 4 of their final 5 regular season games, three of which were on the road, and the only loss being by 2 points to #1 Stanford. They are playing their best ball of the season right now and that was clearly evident in their opening round blow out of Oklahoma State. The Trojans really made a statement in that game and I do not think they satisfied yet. Junior forward Sam Clancy is an absolute monster inside and BC does not have an answer for him. Look for him to leave for the NBA draft following this season. Senior guard Jeff Trepagnier is one of the most athletically gifted guards in the entire country and is also an excellent defender. He matches up perfectly and will make things harder than usual for BC star guard Troy Bell. We made it a point at the beginning of the tournament to try to go against the Big East and this is a perfect opportunity to do so. BC was impressive in the Big East tournament but not one of the teams they beat made the NCAA tourney. They struggled in round one vs Southern Utah and appear very vulnerable here in my opinion. Trojans get it done and advance. USC  1 UNIT

March 18 Sheet

Florida (-3) vs Temple - 11:20am Pacific
The Gators showed me a lot in their opening round win over Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers came with a ton of emotion and were clicking on all cylinders for most of the game enjoying a lead of 12 points in the first half and a lead of 6 in the 2nd half. Florida was able to maintain their composure and answer every run with one of their own eventually proving to be too much in the end. Gator coach Billy Donovan considered to be one of the brightest young coaches in the game is now 8-2 in NCAA tournament games. Florida has won 13 of its last 15 games and in that stretch has defeated 6 ranked teams. This team has done an incredible job considering the injuries they suffered during the year. Only Duke, Michigan State, and Stanford have won more games than the Gators in the last two years. Temple has won 8 straight games themselves, but none of the teams they beat in that span were ranked or even made the tournament. In fact, the Owls were just 1-8 vs teams that made the field of 64 this year. Their starters lead the nation in minutes played and their lack of depth means they almost have to play a flawless game in order to win. Any kind of foul trouble would pose a big problem for the Owls. Florida has enough balance to attack the Temple zone and more than enough experience with 3 starters having played in 10 NCAA games. Gators advance. Florida  1 UNIT

March 22 Sheet

UCLA vs Duke (-12) - 7:00pm Pacific
Look for the Blue Devils to get their killer instinct back tonight. They are all about kicking teams asses with their nation leading +21.3 scoring margin per game. Coach K leads all active coaches with a 52-14 (.788) NCAA tournament record. Duke is 15-2 in last 17 sweet 16 games and have advanced to the final four in seven of their last eight appearances as #1 seed in the East. They have ridiculous statistical advantages over the Bruins. Duke is better in FG%, opponents FG%, 3-point shooting %, free throw %, points, and points allowed. In addition I believe that have significant edges in overall talent, teamwork, chemistry, shot selection, coaching, discipline, and experience. In yesterday's press conference, Coach K labeled his team injury free. Carlos Boozer has participated at full speed in three "real good" practices and Jason Williams has had no problems with his ankle. They are now a much deeper and fresher team than last year when they were upset by Florida. In Coach K's own words they are ready to roll. UCLA faithful and players say they will not be intimidated by Duke, but they should be. At least UCLA coach Lavin can return home with a good excuse for losing, having played the best team in the country. Blue Devils win and cover easy. Duke  2 UNITS

March 23 Sheet

Mississippi (+12) vs Arizona - 4:55pm Pacific
The Rebels have been good to me all year and I am going to ride them again tonight. RPI ranked the SEC as the toughest conference in the nation, and Ole Miss finished 11-5 in conference, good enough for first place in the SEC West. They also won more regular season games than any other SEC team and are the only SEC team still alive in the tournament. The Rebels also broke a school record for wins in a season. They have a solid overall ATS record of 15-10 but have been particularly good in the underdog role where they are 11-4 (.733) ATS this year. Arizona meanwhile is just 14-14 as a favorite this year and the Wildcats have been fortunate thus far in the tournament playing a #15 and a #13 seed through the first two rounds. Granted it was early in the season, but Arizona was upset at home by a Mississippi State team from the SEC, and was also tested severely by LSU from the SEC when the Tigers were healthy. We all know that Ole Miss has proven to be a tougher opponent than those two. The Rebels are capable of playing outstanding defense and setting their own tempo. +12 is too many points on a neutral court. Mississippi  1 UNIT

Note: There also is a prop bet up at CaribSports.com (maybe a few others) where you can bet if either team will ever lead by 19 points or more. I bet on "No". 

Kansas vs Illinois (-1.5) - 7:15pm Pacific
What do the Illini have to do to get some respect? In the second round they were the only #1 seed to not be favored by double digits and now they are almost a pick'em here in the sweet 16. Their strength of schedule was ranked 10th in the country by RPI but its hard to imagine something tougher than playing Maryland, Arizona (twice), Duke, Seton Hall, Missouri, and Texas among others just in your non-conference schedule. They still posted a 24-7 record and won the Big 10 regular season championship. They disappointed slightly in the Big 10 tournament with a 2 point second round loss to Indiana but they are now fresher and more focused because of it. Both of these teams have comparable frontcourts, but the Illini have a huge advantage with point guard Frank Williams. I rank Williams just behind Jason Williams of Duke among the nations best point guards. Both are in only their second year of college ball, but both can take over a game. Frank (15.0ppg, 3.6rpg, 4.1apg, 2.1spg) is not as deadly of a shooter as Jason but has more size and strength and will be a major matchup problem for the smaller Kansas guards. This will most likely end up being a close game, but with the small number I could not pass up playing it. I picked Illinois to go all the way to the finals and I am confident they will deliver a victory here. Illinois  1 UNIT

March 25 Sheet

llinois (pick) vs Arizona - 2:00pm Pacific
I am not sure what games everyone else has been watching, but to me the Illini look like they are playing better basketball than anyone in the tournament right now. They are equally adept on both offense and defense. They have unmatched size, strength, and depth. They have a dominating point guard and leader in Frank Williams who can only be rivaled by Duke's Jason Williams. They also have an outstanding coach in Bill Self. The only way this team can lose is if they beat themselves. The Pac-10 hype came and went fast and Arizona has not impressed much in their first three tournament games. They beat a #15 and a #10 seed in the first two rounds and were sluggish vs Ole Miss on Friday in a game they were favored by double digits to win. I really do not think they have what it takes to battle Illinois here. Sticking with my prediction for an Illinois-Duke final. Fighting Illini advance to final four. Illinois  1 UNIT

March 31 Sheet

Michigan State vs Arizona (-2) - 2:40pm Pacific
Arizona has made me a believer. They have now won 10 straight games, 13 out of their last 14, and 19 out of their last 21. They had the toughest final 8 opponent in Illinois and passed that test with flying colors. In the preseason they were ranked #1 and had all 5 starters named to the preseason all Pac-10 team. They struggled some early on and had to battle through the loss of Bobbi Olson, head coach Lute's wife. They have now come full circle and appear to be on a mission. It is pretty evident that this team has found its chemistry and is peaking at the right time. Head coach Lute Olson has been here before. Michigan State has clearly had the easiest trek to the final four of any team having not beaten a single team in the tournament with lower than a #9 seed (Fresno State). Even with that said they have shown glimpses of vulernability vs Fresno State, Gonzaga, and Temple. Today, they will not be able to get away by having a significant talent edge, in fact they will be the lesser talented of the two teams. Furthermore, with Michigan State having won the title last year, they are probably the least hungry of the four teams here. Cats win and cover the small number. Arizona  1 UNIT