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October 3 Sheet

Illinois (+3.5) at Minnesota - 5:00pm Pacific - Thursday
In preseason camp, Illinois had a tight QB battle between Junior Dustin Ward (backup last year) and Junior Jon Beutjer (transfer from Iowa). Head coach Ron Turner gave the nod to Ward and he started the first two games. He went 9-for-21 vs Missouri and 5-for-10 vs Southern Miss before being pulled in both games. Beutjer has been the starter ever since and the offense is finally starting to hit its stride. Illinois has put up 600, 602, and 543 total yards of offense in three games with Beutjer starting. He has clearly solidified himself as the #1 QB. Beutjer has looked really good but has been plagued by interceptions (3 vs Michigan, one was a tip, one was a great defensive play). He should only get better with each start. He has a truly outstanding cast of receivers and a solid running game to go along with it. It was only a matter of time that a Ron Turner coached team would start to put up big numbers on offense.

Last week the Illinois offense had a very good Michigan defense on its heels racking up 315 total yards in the first half. They were mixing run and pass very well and had the Wolverines off balance. Even the much maligned Illini defense came out fired up and was making plays. Unfortunately, three untimely lost fumbles (two led directly to 24 yard and 15 yard Michigan TD drives, 14 points) in the first half alone completely deflated the team. After having a FG blocked to end the 1st half, Illinois trailed 28-13 despite a 315-to-234 total yard edge. Aside from the turnovers, there was one other notable play in which Michigan had a 3rd and long and would have been forced to punt if an Illini defender could have made a routine open field tackle, but he did not and instead the play went for big yardage setting up a UM touchdown. The Illini also were also burnt by what UM head coach Carr called QB John Navarre's "best game ever" at Michigan. Navarre looked like a different QB than the one who lost at ND and scored just 10 points last week vs Utah.

Minnesota has three new offensive line starters this year and because of some preseason injuries are starting two true freshman on their O-line, including the center. This appeared to be a real weakness in their first true test of the season at Purdue last Saturday. The Boilermakers were able to put pressure on Minn QB Abdul-Khaliq all night long causing him to make a slew of bad throws (16-for-48, 33%). They also could not effectively run the ball averaging just 2.4 yards per carry. Their only TD of the game came with 5:31 left in the 4th quarter.

On defense Minnesota is very young with only one senior starter. They got even younger with the loss of starting sophomore LB Justin Fraley to a high ankle sprain suffered last week. His replacement is a redshirt freshman. When taking a quick look at their game last week, recaps indicate that Purdue scored 14 points off turnovers in the 2nd half which was the difference. The truth of the matter is that Purdue's offense controlled this game throughout both in the air and on the ground. If not for three first half lost fumbles and having a punt blocked they would have established a comfortable lead much sooner in the game. In a way the 14 points off turnovers in the 2nd half was poetic justice. Purdue held the ball 32+ minutes and gained 343 total yards but both numbers could have easily been higher. Illinois ended up with 543 total yards last week vs Michigan. Even more impressive was their 315 first half yards when the outcome was still in question and that was done despite three turnovers. The Wolverine defense entered the game giving up just 314 total yards per game. Everyone would agree the Gopher's defense is at least a notch or two below Michigan's.

Minnesota QB Abdul-Khaliq is currently listed as "questionable" as reports indicate he left practice wearing an ankle brace on Tuesday. Head coach Mason at a luncheon Wednesday said that Abdul-Khaliq is "banged up, but should be able to start" and then named backups in case he could not go or not finish. The short week makes this situation tough on the Gophers. Abdul-Khaliq has less time to heal and will end up with very little practice time. Any backup would be a significant drop-off in talent.

The Illini are much more ahead of Minnesota at this point in the season. Four of their five games have been vs competitive opponents while Minnesota has faced just one and that was just four days ago. Illinois still has a chance to turnaround their season, but a win tonight is imperative. Turner still insists this is a good football team and says that believe it or not this years team is not much different from last years 10-2 club. The team is reportedly still in good spirits and working hard. They still have a lot of pride as the defending Big-10 champs and do not want to start conference play at 0-2. Their remaining schedule is somewhat favorable. They have Michigan behind them, get Ohio State at home, and do not face Iowa or Michigan State. Illinois is 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and has not lost three straight games since mid 1999. The Illinois defense has been under a lot of heat in recent weeks, but tonight I look for the success of the offense to take pressure off the defense and lead the Illini to an outright win.

Illinois  1 UNIT

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