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September 27 Sheet
Wisconsin at Illinois
(+2.5) - 3:00pm Pacific
The Illini come into this game with an
unimpressive 1-3 record but easily could be 4-0. In their season
opener they outgained Missouri 422-to-224 but ran out of time at
the Tiger 23 yard line in their final drive to lose by 7. A first
half botched punt that set up a Missouri four yard touchdown drive
was one of several bad breaks for the Illini. Two weeks later at
UCLA, the Illini again outgained their opponent significantly but
were -3 in turnovers and missed a very makable field goal late
that would have sent the game to overtime. Last week they ran
into an upstart Cal team with new hotshot QB Aaron Rodgers and
gave up a punt return for a TD just before half-time. They again
significantly outgained their opponent and again could not convert
on their final drive of the game as time expired with the ball at
the Cal 4 yard line.
Head coach Ron Turner had his team
work in full pads on Sunday, something that is typically never
done. He also had his first team offense take on the first team
defense as late in the week as Wednesday when they typically would
only go up against scout teams. Clearly, this team means business
this week.
Senior QB Jon Beutjer (former Iowa
transfer) is in his second full year as a starter and is starting
to put up impressive numbers. The passing game has experienced
some growing pains at times this season as top four receivers from
last year are now playing in the NFL, but highly regarded
newcomers Kevin Hayden (JC transfer) and Lonnie Hurst (true
freshman) are starting to establish themselves as go to guys.
Beutjer has already thrown for 1,137 yards in just four games,
completing 65.1% of his passes with a QB rating of 132.47. He set
a Memorial Stadium record with 430 passing yards last week.
Senior starting FB Carey Davis (leading returning runner &
receiver from last season) has returned to full speed practice and
will see action this week after missing the last three games
with a knee injury. The FB position is huge in the Illinois
offense so his presence is a big plus.
Defensive coordinator Mike Cassity
continues to do a fine job here. Despite losing top lineman Mike
O'Brien in week one, and facing three good offenses in Missouri,
UCLA, and Cal, the Illini rank 42nd nationally in total defense.
They would be much higher ranked if not for allowing 500+ yards to
Illinois State in a lopsided win. Their attacking style defense
matches up with Wisconsin's offense very well.
Despite all of the preseason hype,
Wisconsin has not looked like a good football team this season.
Admittedly, we were very fortunate to win and cover with them in
week one vs West Virginia. Since then they gave up 534 yards and
31 points to Akron, lost outright at home to UNLV, and were all
out to beat a less than formidable North Carolina team at home
last week. Along the way they have suffered numerous injuries.
Starting tailback Anthony Davis missed last game with an ankle
injury that is speculated to be a high ankle sprain. This would
most likely mean him missing another game. He is listed as "?"
right now. Backup RB Dwayne Smith suffered a groin injury vs UNC
and is also listed as questionable meaning 3rd string freshman
Booker Stanley could get the start. Stanley looked good vs UNC
last week, but that is not saying much. QB Jim Sorgi has to have
some confidence issues after throwing a combined 4 interceptions
in the last two games. Defensively, junior CB Brett Bell is now
expected to miss the remainder of the season with a shoulder
injury. He was arguably their best cover corner. Meanwhile, DE
Erasmus James is also rumored to be out for the season. He has
not played yet and is arguably their best pash rusher. Wisconsin
comes in ranked 70th in scoring defense despite playing some
questionable opposition and three of four at home.
Illinois' schedule should definitely
have them better prepared for Big 10 play. At 1-3 and playing at
home, Illinois also has to have more of a sense of urgency here
which is evidenced by their intense practices noted above.
Illinois has won the last two meetings including last years 37-20
win in Madison. Despite -3 turnovers, they outgained the
Badgers 504 to 297 in that game. Wisconsin has been on average a
-20 point favorite in their last three games, all at home. The
embarrassing loss to UNLV has to have taken some of the life out
of the Badgers. Illinois is now 9-4 ATS in their last 13 as an
underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a home dog. Expect the
Illini to win outright.
Illinois 1 UNIT
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