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January 29 Sheet

North Carolina at Georgia Tech (-4) - 4:00pm Pacific
I remain very high on this Yellow Jacket team. They have yet to get a conference road win, but all three of their attempts came against the ACC's best (Duke, Maryland, Wake Forest). They gave respectable showings (2-1 ATS) in all three.

Meanwhile, they have been perfect at home going 8-0 this season which includes a win over Georgia. They have won 10 straight overall at home and 12 of 13 with only loss in that span coming last season to Duke. Their average margin of victory at home this year is 20.5. I mentioned earlier in the year what a young team this is (seven of top eight players are underclassman). Playing home or away may affect this team even more than others and they are a team that is sure to improve as the season progresses. I still feel Paul Hewitt is one of the better coaches in college basketball. Georgia Tech has won 9 of its last 14 regular season ACC games. Only Maryland (12) & Duke (10) have won more in the same span.

Tech's defense has shown improvement in recent games. Prior to Duke game they had held their last 5 opponents to just 62 points per game & 39% FG shooting. Unfortunately, they caught Duke off a rare two game losing streak and the Blue Devils were sky high for game becoming just the third team this season to shoot over 50% from the field vs GT. Jackets have also defended the 3-point shot well (opponents, including Duke, shooting a combined 33% over last 6 games). This is critical as UNC depends so heavily on 3-point shots (22+ attempts per game, 2nd most in ACC).

Tech's offense has yet to click on all cylinders but they have a number of scoring threats. The big three are sophomore BJ Elder (16.1ppg, 19.4ppg in ACC play, does not get nearly enough recognition), junior Marvin Lewis (12.3ppg, broke out of slump with 33 vs FSU), and freshman of the year candidate Chris Bosh (16.3ppg, coming off season low 5 points, foul trouble at Duke). Point guard Jarrett Jack, forward Ismail Muhammad, forward Ed Nelson, and center Luke Schenscher are each capable of double figure points any given night. With so many options it is almost a given that at least a few guys will have on nights.

North Carolina comes in at 2-3 in conference play. However, they got their first conference win with standout center Sean May. They are 1-3 in ACC games, 1-3 in road games, and 4-5 overall since May went down to injury. May was third on the team in scoring and led the team in both rebounds and blocked shots. They were inexperienced, undersized, and lacked depth inside even with May. Without him they are in a whole lot of trouble. Their only ACC win since May's injury was a 2 point squeaker at home vs Clemson. Their only road win since May's injury was a ECAC tournament consolation game vs St John's. North Carolina is even younger than Georgia Tech which makes it even harder for them to play well on the road. The Tar Heels fortunate 3 point home win over UConn is their lone quality win (if it can be called that) since November. In UNC's last two games they were beaten soundly at home by Maryland and then lost by 9 at NC State despite point guard Felton's uncanny 28 points & 8 made 3-pointers (averaged 9.3ppg, 1.1 made 3's per game coming in) for which game would not have been as close without.

The recipe for beating UNC is simple. Matchup with their quickness and athleticism on the perimeter and defend the 3-point shot. Georgia Tech can and will do both. Yellow Jackets will have huge size & depth advantages down low in this game. This is a critical game for both teams, but one team is moving up while the other is moving down. Yellow Jackets are the much better team and are playing at home. Give the small number.

Georgia Tech  1 UNIT

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