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December 17 Sheet

Gonzaga (+3.5) vs NC State - New Jersey - 4:00pm Pacific
The Zags are one year removed from a remarkable 29-4 season and are still loaded. They lost two starters and one other contributor from last years team but point guard Dan Dickau was the only major loss. Gonzaga features one of the top frontcourts in the entire country with 6-8 Cory Violette (11.9ppg, 8.2rpg, 1.2bpg), 6-9 Ronny Turiaf (18.1ppg, 5.6rpg, 1.2bpg), 6-8 Zach Gorde (4.6ppg, 2.4rpg), and 6-11 Richard Fox (Colorado transfer, 16.5ppg, 6.0rpg since being inserted into starting lineup 2 games ago). These guys have nice post moves, can score, draw fouls, defend, and rebound. Steady junior point guard Winston Brooks missed most of last season with a wrist injury but has assumed the starting position nicely this year. Wings Blake Stepp (19.5ppg, 4.5rpg, 5.5apg), Kyle Bankhead (8.0ppg), and Tony Skinner (8.6ppg) provide plenty of scoring options. This is a solid eight man rotation with seven upperclassmen and one sophomore.

Gonzaga is coming off a double digit loss to a very good Georgia team in Atlanta. Many factors attributed to the poor performance. UGA head coach Harrick said it was as good a game his team has played all season. It was a 10:30am Pacific time start for Gonzaga who was playing across the country in their first game in over a week (following exams). Phillips Arena was awkwardly empty giving the game a "scrimmage" feeling. The Zags went 0-9 from 3-point land in the first half and ended up down 22 at half-time. They were outrebounded 38-24 for the game. These things just do not happen to Gonzaga. They led the nation in rebounding margin last season and came into the game shooting better than 40% from behind the arc. They played much better in the 2nd half losing by just 12 in the end. Additionally, Zags leading scorer Stepp was held to just 4 points on 2-of-7 shooting, while UGA seldom used guard Wehunt (combined 3 points in prior four games) came out of nowhere to score a career high 13 points and "broke the camel's back" in the process. Gonzaga is a nationally recognized program with a lot of pride. They will be ready to play from start to finish tonight.

I have not been impressed at all by NC State this season. The Wolfpack were an average ACC (9-7 in conference) team last year. They lost their starting senior backcourt which included leading scorer, best defender, and heart & soul of the team Anthony Grundy. Prior to the start of the season they suffered a big blow losing promising sophomore forward Illian Evtimov (7.1ppg as a freshman) for the season with a knee injury. Not a single newcomer has made an impact yet for this team. Only six players (7th player Collins played just 2 minutes) saw significant action vs South Carolina which was their only competitive game of the season. In that game the Gamecocks were leading comfortably in the first half before a power outage delay slowed their momentum. In the 2nd half several turnovers broke open a close game (South Carolina led with 8 minutes to play) making for an inflated 12 point final margin. The Wolfpack's lack of depth will really hurt vs Gonzaga who is loaded up front with players who know how to get to the free throw line. The Zags have drawn an average of 24.6 fouls per game this season. That would equal over 4 fouls each for NC State's 6 man rotation. This will be the Wolfpack's first game away from home all season and this is when lack of solid guard play will affect them the most.

Sagarin ratings rank Gonzaga's schedule so far the 69th toughest in the country. They have compiled a 5-3 record while playing six of eight games away from home including Kentucky, Utah, Indiana, and Georgia. NC State's strength of schedule ranks 323rd. Gonzaga is much more battle tested, experienced, has superior size & depth, and is just the overall better team. The plus points are a nice luxury but I do not expect anything short of an outright victory.

Gonzaga  2 UNITS

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