*All lines current as of 9/25/05 at 7:55pm PST. Eight plays this week:
Pittsburgh at Rutgers (Over 46) - 5:00pm Pacific - Friday - Game #107-108
Rutgers has 9 returning starters on offense from last year. They include a 4 year starter in senior QB Ryan Hart, junior FB Brian Leonard (1st team Big East), WR Tres Moses (1st team Big East), TE Clark Harris (1st team Big East), and WR Shawn Tucker who led the team in receiving in 2003 before redshirting last year. This unit can and will score points. Defense is another story as the Scarlet Knights continue to struggle despite having experience. Their three opponents thus far Illinois, I-AA Villanova, and Buffalo have only scored an average of 14.0ppg, but have gone for 410ypc including a whopping 273.3ypc through the air with a completion rate of 63.5%. That ranks Rutgers #100 nationally in pass defense despite the soft schedule. Historically, they have not been strong against the run either. Pitt's offense is also very experienced with plenty of talent at the skill positions. Despite only scoring 6 points, they actually gained more yardage in a hostile environment vs #6 defense in the country at Nebraska then they did previously vs Ohio U. Last week was their get well game, a 41-0 win vs I-AA Youngstown State. They racked up 531 total yards and I expect their offensive woes to be a thing of the past from here on out. The Panthers put up 38 on Rutgers in the first half alone in a 41-17 win just last year and have 9 starters back on offense. Expect a similarly high scoring game.
Early Look: OVER 46 1/2 UNIT
Virginia at Maryland (+3.5) - 9:00am Pacific - Game #119-120
Terp head coach Ralph Friedgen really challenged his team following two straight tough losses to Clemson and West Virginia. His defense responded with by far their best performance of the season last week. They looked like the Maryland defense of old controlling the game throughout and holding Wake Forest (#6 rushing offense in the nation coming in) to a season low 140 yards. The Maryland offense is still a work in progress but they did get a breakout game from sophomore RB Keon Lattimore who figures to take over as the starter this week. The Terps are sure to be excited for revenge situation and homecoming game this week vs Virginia. The Cavaliers' narrow win at Syracuse two weeks ago makes them very suspect. All-American LB Ahmad Brooks (knee) has yet to play a snap and his status remains cloudy. Even if he does return this week, it would most likely be in a limited role. Starting LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson (1st team ACC last year) left Saturday's game vs Duke with a knee injury and did not return. He is by far the teams best offensive lineman and is listed as questionable as of this writing. Virginia has performed miserably on the road under Al Groh going 6-13 ATS in last 19 away games. Take the points.
Early Look: Maryland +3.5 1/2 UNIT
Iowa State at Nebraska (-3.5) - 12:30pm Pacific - Game #127-128
The BYE week could not have come at a better time for Nebraska. Despite a perfect 3-0 record, the Cornhuskers have struggled badly on offense. They have now been able to spend extra time on offensive execution as well as work in some much needed new player groupings on the offensive line and skill positions. They should begin to show improvement this week. Even if they do not, their outstanding defense (ranked #6 nationally) and special teams give them a chance to beat even good teams, especially here in Lincoln. Iowa State's win over Iowa was not what it seemed. Iowa QB Tate was knocked out of the game in the first half and the Cyclones (+4 turnover ratio for the game) scored their first 17 points off of turnovers. Iowa State barely escaped last week at Army, thanks to an incidental face mask call on a critical 4th down play. They were outgained by 136 yards for the game. I still do not have a lot of confidence in ISU sophomore QB Meyer. He is coming off a 3 interception performance and his yards per completion stats are down from last year. It does not help that the ISU running game is only averaging 2.6ypc despite having I-AA Illinois State and Army in two of their three games thus far. It might be a long day for the Cyclone offense against this supercharged Nebraska defense. Iowa State is 14-28 ATS as a road dog under Dan McCarney. Give the points.
Early Look: Nebraska -3.5 1/2 UNIT
Arizona (+16.5) at California - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #155-156
The Wildcats are as ready for Pac-10 play as they have been in a long time. I am extremely high on second year head coach Mike Stoops. He has transformed the physical and mental state of this football program in just over a year. Arizona is coming off a heartbreaking loss to then top-15 ranked Purdue. The Wildcats had closed to within 4, seized momentum of the game, and forced Purdue to punt from their own end zone but fumbled the ensuing return and never recovered. Arizona also had several opportunities to win on the road at Utah in their season opener but were ultimately done in by turnovers. QB Kovalcheck threw for 287 yards against Purdue and continues to develop. The hard hitting Arizona defense expects to get two injured starters back for this game in LB Krogstad (missed last game) and DE Bryan (missed last two games). Starting LB's Sims and Larsen both are recovering from early season injuries and saw limited action vs Purdue. Having a BYE week heading into this game will be very beneficial for the Wildcats. Cal has played a very soft schedule thus far and their last two games have not been very impressive. They trailed by 10 at halftime to Illinois and needed a long second half punt return to secure the win. Despite the fairly easy schedule, new QB Ayoob is completing just 52.5% of his passes, a low number for Tedford's offense. Meanwhile, the Cal defense is still a work in progress. This will be by far the most balanced team Cal has faced this season. Take the big number.
Early Look: Arizona +16.5 1/2 UNIT
Washington State (+2) at Oregon State - 1:00pm Pacific - Game #159-160
I am very high on this Cougar team. There are several improved teams in the Pac-10 this year but Washington State may be the most improved of them all. QB Josh Swogger was touted as the next NFL QB to come out of WSU, but sophomore QB Alex Brink has been so good that he beat out Swogger for the starting job. Brink has displayed the poise of a senior while ranking #11 in the country in passing efficiency through three games. The WSU offense is as balanced as they come. They have size and speed at receiver, a physical inside/outside runner in Jerome Harrison, and they actually use their tight end. Third year head coach Bill Doba still hangs his hat on defense and this year they look more like the aggressive gang tackling unit of 2003. They have already recorded 16 sacks and 14 QB hurries in just 3 games. They are led by all-American LB Will Derting who is back for his senior year without the cast that hindered him last year. Oregon State is coming off two straight blow out losses. They just do not appear to have kept pace with many of the Pac-10 teams and will find themselves near the bottom of the conference standings. The Beavers rank 114th of 117 teams in pass efficiency defense. Only Bowling Green, Ball State, and Rice have been worse. I had hoped Oregon State would give a better showing last week vs ASU for better line value in this spot but I am still happy to be getting points here.
Early Look: Washington State +2 1/2 UNIT
Utah State at Idaho (+3) - 2:00pm Pacific - Game #163-164Idaho has been beaten physically by two older and more mature teams in Washington and Hawaii each of the past two weeks. This week the Vandals get an opponent that will be much more to their liking. Utah State is just as young and smallish as Idaho. The Idaho offense has been hurt by injuries to starting RB and multiple offensive line starters, but two of the lineman who didn't make it back last week should be good to go this week and that will give them a big lift. Idaho played right into the hands of a constantly blitzing Hawaii defense with predictable play calling last week which in part led to them being shutout. Idaho QB Steven Wichman is very capable of making plays and I expect a much better showing from him and the Vandal offense this week. Look for them to pull out all of the stops as this is a must win game for Idaho in order to maintain fan interest and support. It is also homecoming week which will ensure another large Kibble Dome crowd. The Vandal defense did well to hold Hawaii to only 24 points despite being on the field far too long. Utah State was ignited by an early kickoff return for a TD, and took advantage of several UNLV miscues for an improbable 31-24 win last week. They are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after a straight up win. The Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as an away favorite, losing all four games outright, and they are 1-14 straight up in last 15 road games overall. Take the home dog here.
Early Look: Idaho +3 1/2 UNIT
UTEP (-3) at Memphis - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #193-194
Although not super impressive, the Miners keep finding ways to win. Last week they beat a good New Mexico team with special teams and defense. It was by far UTEP's most complete defensive game under Mike Price. The defense was on the field for 23 straight snaps at one point in the 3rd quarter, covering three New Mexico drives, but still allowed only one field goal in the entire second half. UTEP forced 3 sacks and held New Mexico to 145 total yards below their season average. It was a sub par performance from the UTEP offense but they are still one of the most explosive offenses in all of C-USA. Memphis is coming off a gut wrenching overtime loss at Tulsa. Even worse for the Tigers is that they lost another starting QB to injury for the season. Third string true freshman Billy Barefield (1-for-4 off the bench last week) will make his first career start. This will allow UTEP to focus their defense even more on Memphis star RB DeAngelo Williams. UTEP should get back starting DT Zach West (Honorable mention all WAC last year) which will further bolster their already solid defensive line and run defense. He was injured in the season opener and has not played since. Meanwhile, the Memphis defense was not impressive in giving up 431 yards of balanced offense to Tulsa last week. UTEP is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Give the small number.
Early Look: UTEP -3 1/2 UNIT
Southern Miss at East Carolina (+7.5) - 3:00pm Pacific - Game #167-168
I really like how ECU is playing this year. They are only 1-2 SU but are a perfect 3-0 ATS. Both of their losses came on the road vs pretty good teams in Wake Forest and West Virginia. Last weeks performance at WVU was particularly impressive. The Pirates only lost 20-15 and held the Mountaineers vaunted rushing attack to just 127 yards. It should be noted that they gave up 478 rushing yards to WVU last year! Pirate QB James Pinkney has looked good in new offensive system under first year head coach Skip Holtz. Freshman WR Aundrae Allison has come from almost nowhere to average 148 receiving yards per game. He is a major impact player. The defense is clearly making big strides, not only against the run, but in the secondary as well where they have already picked off 7 passes in just three games. Southern Miss has already had two games canceled due to hurricanes not to mention having to endure the close to home tragedy. They came out on an emotional high in first game at Alabama but could not maintain it and were beaten soundly. Senior rover Darrell Bennett (second among returnees in tackles) was kicked off the team in the offseason and starting CB Caleb Hendrix (hamstring) has missed the first two games, although he is listed as probable this week. The USM defense is not what it was two seasons ago and I do not believe the offense has improved enough to make up for it. East Carolina gets incredible fan support and will be a tough out in every home game this year. Chance for an upset, take the points.
