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November 22 Sheet

North Carolina at Duke (-3) - 9:00am Pacific
Expecting the Blue Devils to end this season on a positive note. They head into this game at just 2-9, but that actually is positive for a team that came into this season with a 23 game losing streak. This is critical in a game where pride will mean everything.

Duke (8-3 ATS this year) has been very competitive in ACC play this season. They were tied with Virginia in the 4th quarter, eventually losing by just 5. They outgained the Cavaliers by almost 100 yards and were -2 in turnover ratio or else its probably a win. The Blue Devils also lost by just 2 at NC State, and by just 3 vs Clemson. Last week they played fairly well at Georgia Tech, especially defensively, but lost momentum when they got zero points with the ball at the one yard line and suffered 3 turnovers in a 17-2 loss. In contrast, UNC has only come within single digits (8 point home loss to Georgia Tech) once against an ACC opponent.

Duke has been doing extremely well controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. They have outrushed every ACC team they have faced (Florida State, Wake Forest, NC State, Virginia, Georgia Tech) except Maryland (129 to 151). In contrast, UNC has been outrushed by every single ACC team they have played by a whopping average per game of 241 to 90! Duke boasts the current ACC sack leader in Shawn Johnson, while UNC has given up a conference high 41 sacks. Big advantage to Blue Devils.

The Tarheels have been terrible since losing QB Durant 5 games back. Not that they were very good to begin with. In last four games UNC has been outscored by an average of 43.0 to 8.25! Their defense has been downright awful all season giving up 464 yards and 36.4 points per game. They lost one of their best defensive players, DB Michael Waddell two weeks ago which did not help matters. This line moved down early in the week when it was announced that QB Durant may attempt to return to action this week. He is currently listed as "?" for the game. Head coach Bunting also has talked about playing redshirt freshman QB Baker, clearly an indication of looking ahead to next year. Durant has not played in over a month and has not had significant practice time. No matter who starts I do not see an offensive revival against a pretty decent Duke defense.

UNC has absolutely owned Duke, winning the last 13 meetings. Including 52-17, 59-21, 38-0, 28-6, and 50-14 crushings the last five seasons. Blue Devils would like nothing more than to get a little payback while they can against their instate archrival. Duke is a much fresher team having had a BYE week prior to Georgia Tech game last week. UNC meanwhile will be playing their 9th consecutive game without a BYE. They are a young team who hit the wall weeks ago. Blue Devils get first ACC win since 1999 in impressive fashion.

Duke  2 UNITS

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