|
|
|
August 29 Sheet
Duke (+15) at Virginia
- 4:00pm Pacific - Saturday, August 30
The Blue Devils showed significant
improvement last season in the ACC. They were much better than
their 2-10 record of last season indicates. They played
competitively vs Virginia (lost by just 5 despite -2 turnovers,
but had more first downs, total yards, and time of possession), NC
State (lost by 2, had more first downs, total yards, and time of
possession), Clemson (lost by 3, blew 14 point 4th quarter lead),
and North Carolina (lost by 2 on last second field goal). They
improved greatly in the trenches and produced their best rushing
numbers in over 10 years on both sides of the ball. They outgained
10 of their 12 opponents on the ground last season! They did not
outrush a single opponent in 2001. The bad news is they still
have lost a record 25 straight ACC games, but the good news is
they return a remarkable 20 starters from last years team!
Duke returns all 11 starters on
offense. Junior QB Adam Smith is back for his second year as a
full time starter. He had pretty decent numbers in his first full
season completing 57% of his passes for 2,031 yards and a 12 to 9
TD to INT ratio. Smith had his best performances in the latter
parts of the year. He did not have much of a receiving corps last
year and lost top WR Reggie Love to injury after the fourth game
but the entire starting receiving group (including an eager
Love) returns this year and will be improved. All five starters
return on the offensive line which produced 158 rushing yards per
game and 3.9 yards per carry last year. Both numbers are
team bests in the last 10+ seasons. Power back Alex Wade (tied
Duke record with six 100+ yard games) even earned 2nd team ACC
honors. Wade and speedy senior Chris Douglas both return in the
backfield and provide an excellent speed & power combo. All this
unit would have to do is improve on their red zone conversion rate
and they will easily surpass last years scoring output. With all
of the returning experience I expect at least that.
Duke returns 9 starters on defense as
well as numerous quality backups who are fighting for starting
jobs. They lost 1st team ACC DE Shawn Johnson and a good LB in
Jamyon Small but return everyone else. They held four quality
teams (NC State, Virginia, Clemson, East Carolina) to under 100
yards rushing last year. Their 121 yard per game and 3.4 yard per
carry averages were the lowest allowed in over ten years here.
Five of the top six tacklers return including team leader LB Ryan
Fowler and DT stud Matt Zielinski (18 tackles for loss, honorable
mention ACC last year). Much of the units improvement can be
credited to well regarded defensive coordinator Ted Roof who took
over last season. This will be their second full season in the
Roof system and with all the experience back even more good
results should be expected.
Virginia had a very successful 9-5
season a year ago, but that aside they were last in the ACC in
total offense (357.1 yards per game) and next-to-last in total
defense (424.6). Virginia was outgained in six of its nine
victories and often lived dangerously winning four games in which
they either trailed or were tied going into the fourth quarter in
successive weeks. They won five games by five points or less and
they benefited largely from a +15 turnover ratio on the season.
Virginia does have 15 starters back from last year but they are
still a young team with only 12 projected upperclassmen starters
(lowest in ACC) compared to Duke who will field 18. Virginia has
been hyped up by preseason publications & rankings and could
easily come into this game a bit cocky and overconfident.
In last years meeting, Duke completely
stuffed the UVA running game holding them to just 2 yards rushing
on 20 attempts. Virginia was able to narrowly win 22-17 thanks to
+2 turnovers, a productive passing game, and a key 2nd half flea
flicker pass. While Duke returns its entire secondary from last
year, Virginia lost possibly their best offensive weapon in WR
Billy McMullen (3rd round NFL pick) and suffered a big blow
recently when projected top WR Michael McGrew was lost for the
season due to injury in practice. Also out is FB Jason Snelling
(seizures). This trio combined for 15 catches for 225 yards in
last years meeting! They will be missed as well will offensive
coordinator Bill Musgrave who left for Jacksonville of the NFL.
Cavs featured all-purpose back Wali Lundy has been slowed by a
hamstring injury but will play. Virginia returns 7 defensive
starters and has some big time talent but they are young and will
have to replace their top three tacklers from last season
including 1st team ACC performer Angelo Crowell (155 tackles led
team).
Pundits wonder if Duke will
breakthrough and win an ACC game this season, but players on this
team will tell you wholeheartedly their goal is to make a bowl
game. That is not out of reach in my opinion although playing at
Tennessee in November will not help their chances of finishing
with a winning record. Blue Devils have been fortunate to not
lose any players to injury in the preseason. They are set to go.
This team only lost five lettermen from last season and looks to
be by far the best team hot seat head coach Carl Franks has had
here. They finished 5-1 ATS as road dogs last season. Duke could
have very easily beaten Virginia last year and with almost
everyone back will at least be competitive enough to stay within
this big spread today. Take the points.
Duke 1 UNIT
Live Chat & Posting Forum for Sports Bettors: BettingChat.com - BettingTalk.com
COLLEGE SPORTS BETTING
INFORMATION NETWORK DO YOU HAVE INFORMATION TO SHARE ON YOUR FAVORITE COLLEGE TEAM?
SECURE ORDER | TESTIMONIALS | CONTACT US | HOME © 2003 Handicapper.net, Inc |
