St Mary's at San Diego (-2) - 8:00pm Pacific - Game #529-530
San Diego started the season with four straight losses vs Division 1 opponents and it did not look like their season would amount to much. They then went on a seven game win streak that included a win at Cal when the Bears were healthy and an 18 point blow out of UCSB. Their win streak was not snapped until a game at Fresno State after Christmas break in which they led almost the entire game before losing by 3. They then were the only team in the WCC to start conference play with three straight road games. They lost a heartbreaker in double OT at San Francisco after the Dons tied the game with a 40 footer at the end of regulation, but then rebounded the following week with solid road wins over Pepperdine and LMU. Their conference home opener vs Santa Clara on Saturday started out fine, they led by 8 at half, but the Toreros somehow imploded in the second half going 2-for-22 from the field and scoring just 16 points to lose by 14. Head coach Brad Holland said after the game that he has never had a team play so poorly at home since he has been here. USD has still won 10 of 13 games and is 7-1 at home. Sophomore center Gyno Pomare and sophomore point guard Brandon Johnson are big time talents that have gone unnoticed by most. Senior off guard Ross DeRogatis is a gutsy player and deadly shooter. Senior F/C Nir Cohen is just rounding back into form after missing 10 games with a hand injury. Sophomore wing Ray Murdock is also contributing more minutes of late after battling injury in December.

St. Mary's did not impress in non-conference play, going 8-8 with zero quality wins. The highest ranked team they beat was Belmont at #137 in the Sagarin ratings. They rose to the occasion and beat Gonzaga at home two games back but the Zags are down this year and even the best Gonzaga team's have trouble playing at SMC as it is always their biggest home date of the season. In last game SMC needed OT to win at San Francisco Saturday night. USF is the most overrated team in WCC right now so not only did the OT game likely take something out of them, but it was disappointing that they could not win the game with more authority. The Gaels have struggled on the road all season. They had a nice contingent of fans and students make the short trip to USF for last game but that will not be the case in San Diego tonight. Even with Saturday's win they are a dismal 1-7 (both straight up and ATS) away from home.

I have had a chance to watch San Diego play in person twice this year. They are a very underrated team that is definitely capable of a top three finish in the WCC. Their horrible second half on Saturday may have been a result of Santa Clara's overwhelming size, but it was more of an aberration than anything. That loss works to our advantage tonight as we get a favorable line and a team that will be playing with a greater sense of urgency. This is a critical game for USD if they expect to make any noise in the conference this year. Expect a convincing win.

RAS Official Play: San Diego -2 2 UNITS

Santa Clara (-1) at San Francisco - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #527-528
Head coach Dick Davey's prediction that this may be his best team ever at Santa Clara is starting to come to fruition. The Broncos have won 11 of 15 games with the four losses all coming vs tough opponents Air Force, vs Gonzaga, at Kentucky, and at SMS. Santa Clara cannot take all the credit for holding San Diego to just 16 second half points on Saturday, but they also held Stanford to a similar first half total earlier in the season and also on the road. The Broncos are capable of overwhelming teams with their tremendous size (height and girth) down low and USF is a team that lacks front court size and depth. Santa Clara center John Bryant (21 pts, 27 rebs last 2 games), a huge 320 pound sophomore, is emerging as a consistent force in the middle. The team has been running their offense through him more often of late not only because of the matchup problems he presents, but also because he has solid passing skills. Eastern Washington transfer guard Danny Pariseau has been a real surprise this year. He and junior Brody Angley give the team interchangeable guards. Both handle the ball well and can score. The Broncos defend and rebound as well as anyone in the conference and have tremendous depth.

San Francisco is likely the most overvalued team in the WCC right now. They are tied for first place at 3-1 in conference but were life and death to win all three games. They needed to hit a 40 foot shot at the buzzer to force OT in win over USD, then needed OT again to beat a shorthanded LMU team, and needed some key breaks to come from behind and win at Pepperdine by 1. It should be noted that LMU & Pepperdine are a combined 1-9 in conference. The Dons are still a dismal 3-8 in their last 11 games overall. USF has never been a very disciplined team under Jessie Evans. Poor shot selection has always been an issue and only one player on the current team has a positive assist to turnover ratio. Leading scorer Antonio Kellogg has shot just 35% in last three games and was benched in the final minutes vs Pepperdine two games back. Two transfers, two freshman, and a redshirt account for five of USF's top eight players, so there may still be some chemistry issues to work out. USF may be tied for first in the WCC right now, but I predict them finishing in the bottom half of the standings. Look for Santa Clara to continue their winning ways.

RAS Official Play: Santa Clara -1 1 UNIT


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