Montana (+7) vs Nevada - 12 Noon Pacific - Game #725-726 - Thursday
The Grizzlies are on a heck of a run. They are 29-7 dating back to last season. This year they had non-conference wins at Drake, swept LMU home and away, and dominated Stanford by double digits at home. They went 10-4 in conference play with all four losses coming on the road. As the #2 seed in the conference tournament they won the championship game over Northern Arizona by double digits despite playing on NAU's home court. This is a very solid basketball team. They share the ball well and get good shots offensively. They rebound and defend well, using an array of junk defenses when necessary. The Grizzlies ranked #1 in the Big Sky in both scoring offense and FG% shooting while ranking #2 in scoring defense and FG% defense. They were also #1 in assists, #1 in rebounding margin, and #2 in steals. There is not much this team does not do well.
Three of the top five finishers in the WAC last year moved to C-USA. Fresno State was in a transition year and Hawaii battled injuries all season long. Nevada did not have to do much to defend their title, but still finished 13-3 in conference after going 16-2 in a tougher league a year ago. The only decent opposition this year came from former Big West school Utah State and an improved Louisiana Tech team. Nevada went 1-1 vs Utah State in the regular season and needed OT to beat the Aggies in the conference tournament championship that was played on their home court. Just a few weeks prior they won by just a point vs Louisiana Tech. I do not believe Nevada has accomplished as much as people give them credit for this year.
Montana's second year head coach Larry Krystkowiak is the toast of the town. The former NBA player and Montana alum took over a losing program and has now reached the NCAA tournament in both of his first two seasons. Last year the Grizzlies lost their starting center to injury just before facing #1 seed Washington in the first round but still played a competitive game losing by just 11 as a 20+ dog. They will have that very important experience to draw on this time around and they get a much better matchup against a beatable opponent in Nevada. Take the points on a very live dog.
RAS Official Play: Montana +7 2 UNITS
Utah State vs Washington (-6) - 6:45pm Pacific - Game #733-734 - Thursday
The Huskies feature four seniors who will be making their third straight NCAA tournament appearance. They were defeated in OT in the first round two years ago and last year lost a tough one to Louisville in the sweet 16. They will again be a tough out for any team they play. Head coach Lorenzo Romar has this team playing a more disciplined style this year which will serve them well. UW reloaded well around the four key returnees with Florida transfer sharpshooter Ryan Appleby, McDonald's All-American power forward Jon Brockman, and speedy point guard Justin Dentmon. This team lost only 5 games in the regular season. Two were to instate rival Washington State, two were in OT, and the other was by just 2 points. Big road wins at UCLA and at Arizona in regular season finale prove their ability to win away from home. Utah State could be the least deserving at-large team in the tournament. The WAC was definitely down this year and the Aggies have a strong home court advantage which enabled them to finish with a good overall record. However, this team does not have a single quality win other than their midseason road win at Nevada. They went just 6-6 in their other road games with the teams they beat having an average RPI of just 222. Utah State lost to Arizona by 13 in the big dance last year and a similar result should be expected. Give the points.
RAS Official Play: Washington -6 1 UNIT
Boston College (-7.5) vs Pacific - 9:40am Pacific - Game #723-724 - Thursday
Not thrilled about giving this many points in an NCAA tournament game and BC is an obvious public side but I just do not see anyway this game cannot play out the way it should. The Eagles are an experienced, polished, and talented group of "gym rat" type players who just love to play. They showed their determination and ability in the ACC tournament coming just shy of taking home the championship. They are poised for a deep run in the big dance. Meanwhile, Pacific is at the top of my tournament "go against" team list. The Big West was an absolute joke this year with teams like Long Beach State and Cal Poly finishing in the top four. Pacific won the league more or less by default but still were pushed to the limit in both conference tournament wins. The Tigers were 12-5 in non-conference play but most of the games were at home and 6 of the wins came against absolute cupcakes. Pacific lost at home to New Mexico State in a bracket buster game a month ago. Their lone win over a team in the field of 64 came in early January vs Texas A&M but that was far before the Aggies started playing well and the game was in Stockton. This is not the same quality Pacific team that advanced in the tournament last year. BC should have little trouble. Give the points.
RAS Official Play: Boston College -7.5 1 UNIT
Alabama vs Marquette (-2) - 11:40am Pacific - Game #735-736 - Thursday
It took me a while to realize it but Marquette is for real. The Golden Eagles started the season 12-3 including a 15 point win over then #2 UConn. Being the young team that they are, they continued to only get better as the season progressed. They finished an impressive 10-6 in the ultra tough Big East and have 5 wins over teams in the big dance including 2 away from home. They played well down the stretch winning 4 of 6 games including two wins over ranked opponents and both losses going down to the wire in OT at Louisville and in 3 point loss vs Georgetown in BE tournament. Freshman guard Dominic James gets most of the publicity but fellow freshman Jerel McNeal and Wasley Matthews are almost equally impressive. Senior sharpshooter Steve Novak is having a career year. The team is well coached, plays solid defense, and has depth. Alabama has been in survival mode since losing leading scorer Chuck Davis to injury 16 games ago. They surprisingly won their first three games without him but have been an unspectacular 7-6 since. The Tide have done just barely enough to hold serve in key home games to make the NCAA tournament. They are just 3-7 in road games this year with win at Kentucky being the lone road win vs a team with a winning record. Big East over SEC in this one. Give the small number.
RAS Official Play: Marquette -2 1 UNIT
