Maryland at Miami, Fla (+4.5, play to +3.5) - 9:00am Pacific - Game #519-520
Three games ago Miami held a 5 point lead at the 4:00 minute mark vs Florida and two games back led Louisville by 1 with the ball at the 6:30 mark. In both games they collapsed to lose by very misleading final scores but still demonstrated that they are capable of playing with almost anyone. In the Louisville game last Saturday at an off campus arena (Sunrise, FL), Miami leading scorer Guillermo Diaz almost unbelievably scored zero points. He even missed a crucial front end of a one and one after Miami had taken their one point lead. Diaz came in to the game averaging over 17ppg and had averaged over 20ppg against ranked teams dating back to last season so the Louisville game was a definite anomaly. Miami is now in more of a must win situation than ever. They return to their home court today and face a team less talented than #8 Louisville or #5 Florida and one that they can match up better with on the interior. Miami's speed and quickness will be superior in this matchup.
Maryland comes in winners of six in a row and appear very hot on paper, but in reality their lone quality win all season was at home over Boston College by just 2 points. Days before that win they were beaten fairly convincingly on a neutral court by George Washington. Earlier in the year they beat Arkansas in the third day of the Maui Invitational and later beat a shorthanded Minnesota team, but otherwise have only beaten up on cupcakes. More importantly is that this will be Maryland's first true road game all season. They also may be looking ahead to their annual visit to Duke on Wednesday.
If a few bounces had gone Miami's way this year, they would be favored in this matchup. Instead we are getting them as a nice home dog. The Hurricanes haven't had to leave Miami for 3 weeks and head coach Frank Haith promised to make raise the intensity level in practice following the Louisville loss. They should be very well prepared for this game both mentally and physically. Take the points and consider a small money line bet.
RAS Official Play: Miami, Fla +4.5 1 UNIT
Long Beach State (+9.5, play to +8.5) at UCSB - 2:00pm Pacific - Game #583-584
The 49ers have a lot to be optimistic about in this matchup. They are amidst a three game win streak and fans close to the program insist that the 77-48 win over Big West charter member UC Davis was the best basketball they have played in years. Head coach Larry Reynolds has opted to scrap a lot of the trapping and full court pressure defense that the Beach showed early in the season and has replaced it with straight up man-to-man pressure. LBSU had been giving up over 90ppg but have held last their two opponents to just 56.5ppg. Another bright spot has been the play of recently eligible point guard Kejuan Johnson. He has started the last three games with a scoring average of 11.0ppg but more importantly plays good defense and is a solid floor leader. LBSU has five players averaging in double figures so offense was never really their problem.
I was very high on Cal Santa Barbara to start the season but their recent play has been nothing short of dismal. Last Monday they gave horrible UC Riverside their first win of the season and then looked very uninspired in 14 point loss at Cal State Fullerton on Wednesday. The team doesn't seem to have any structure on offense and defensively have not been nearly as good as advertised. If things were not bad enough, UCSB will now play the next 2-3 games without their leading scorer and best all around player Cecil Brown due to a sprained knee. Brown is also the emotional leader of a team that really seems to be lacking leadership and intensity. The Gauchos appeared to be just going through the motions both times I have seen them play in person this year. Their lack of depth at guard will be a factor against a deep and athletic Long Beach team who will pressure the ball for 40 minutes.
It is hard to back Long Beach on the road but they have enough things going for them in this matchup to warrant a play. Especially getting this many points. With as bad as some of the Big West teams have looked this year, it would be no surprise to see the 49ers make some noise in the conference race. If they continue to play improved defense they can steal an outright win here. Take the points.
RAS Official Play: Long Beach State +9.5 1 UNIT
Cal State Fullerton at CSUN (-1, play to -2) - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #607-608
The Matadors welcomed back sophomore forward Calvin Chitwood to the lineup two games back. He had been academically ineligible for the first 8 games. Chitwood has been touted as the team's second best all around player and head coach Braswell has given him more minutes than anyone since his return. Chitwood has produced 13.5ppg and 7.0rpg in two games and should continue to improve with more playing time. Junior guard Mike Efevberha is coming off back to back subpar games but remains the top scorer in the conference and can be very explosive. 6-10 junior center Thomas Shewmake was slowed by a preseason injury but has seen his minutes and production increase in last three games. Sophomore wing Jonathan Heard is coming off a career high 25 point game vs Fairfield. Senior point guard Bakari Altheimer is becoming more of a steady ball handler. Those five players can compete with any other five in the conference, especially here in Northridge. Seven other players have seen significant minutes at some point this season.
Fullerton lost a shocker to Cal Poly two games back as a 19 point favorite. They rebounded with a nice win over an uninspired UCSB team on Wednesday thanks to a 21 point night by inconsistent guard Jermaine Harper who had been struggling badly in recent weeks. Poor defense has plagued Fullerton all season and they only played with intensity on that side of the ball for short stretches of the game. UCSB shot 51% overall and 63.3% inside the 3-point arc. Two games back Cal Poly shot 52.8% and four games back Texas San-Antonio shot 52.6% against the Titans. Another concern is shot selection and a lack of inside scoring. Top inside player Jammal Brown has shot just 35% in last five outings and only scored 7ppg in last two, well below his season average. All seven of CSF's wins have come vs losing teams, and some pretty bad ones at that. Questionable defense and shot selection spell trouble for this team on the road.
CSUN has a major advantage of not only playing this game at home, but being a much fresher team. They have had 7 full days to prepare for this game while Fullerton will be playing its third conference game in a six day span. The Matadors have far superior depth and surely will use that to their advantage. Fullerton was fortunate to beat CSUN in both meetings last year, one in OT in Northridge and one on a tip-in at the buzzer in Fullerton. CSUN will look for revenge and a win tonight. Children's day promotion is expected to bring a bigger than usual crowd. Take the home team.
RAS Official Play: Cal State Northridge -1 1 UNIT
