Houston at South Alabama (+3.5) - 3:00pm Pacific - Game #545-546
I saw South Alabama play at LMU a little over two weeks ago.  At the time, head coach Pelphrey was substituting liberally trying to figure out his best lineups.  He kept his starters on the bench during key parts of the game and the team had only one or two favorable calls all night but still managed to pull out an overtime win.  Since then they have won three more games bringing their win streak to five.  Most impressive is that three of the five wins have come in true road game situations.  Pelphrey now has a better grasp on his rotation and first year transfers guard Christie (former starter at Clemson),  F/C McGriff (top JC recruit), and guard Bennett (SMU transfer) have had time to adjust to their new surroundings.  Christie is starting and hit the game winner at LMU.  Senior returnees guard Mario Jointer (team's leading scorer), forward Richard Law (50% shooter from 3-point range), and forward Michael Phillips (undersized but tough low post player) are all playing the best basketball of their careers.  The Jaguars have 8 players averaging 6.4ppg or more and their bench has outscored opponents by 10.0ppg.  The team is sharing the ball well (4.15 more assists than opponents) and has improved on turnovers (+4 margin), something that plagued them last year. 

Houston was able to force some key turnovers and got a huge scoring night from Louisiana native Oliver Lafayette in their one point upset win at LSU.  They followed that up with a 4 point win over Arizona, but Wildcat head coach Lute Olson benched his top two scorers for the first 10 minutes of the game for being late to a team meal.  Houston opened up a 17 point lead early and was able to make it stand.  The Cougars are not built to be a successful road team.  They do not have a legitimate inside presence and do not rebound well.  Houston was outrebounded by 23 vs LSU and by 27 vs Arizona.  They thrive off emotion and athleticism but their helter-skelter style will not be as effective on the road.  It will be hard for Houston to get up for a "no-name" opponent. 

At 6-1, South Alabama is off to their best start in over 20 years.  After going 3-10 on the road last year they are already 3-1 this year with the last two wins coming by double digits.  They are a perfect 3-0 at home.  This Jaguar team is clearly improved and catches Houston in their first game as a member of the top 25.  Great spot for a mild upset.  Take the home dog.