South Alabama at LMU (-2.5, play to -4.5) - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #721-722

I am expecting a lot more intensity from LMU tonight after coming out flat in their last two games.  They started the season with an impressive road win at BYU, but then were upset as a double digit home favorite vs a pesky Montana team.  I attended that game and LMU was lackadaisical defensively and missed a ton of easy shots offensively.  They made a good run in the second half but just could not close out the game despite being the better team.  In last game they were simply outmatched at Washington.  Early foul trouble to key players and 22 turnovers in the first half alone led to an ugly result on the scoreboard.  This is a very experienced team with all 10 players in the regular rotation seeing quality minutes last year.  First year head coach Rodney Tention knows this is an important game and there will be a much greater sense of urgency tonight.  Better effort alone will help the defense and I expect the offense to exploit their huge size advantage down low.  Leading scorer 6-9 F/C Matthew Knight and improved 6-10 senior center Chris Ayer give LMU two quality options inside against an undersized South Alabama frontline.   

South Alabama's tallest players are 6-7 and 6-8.  The Jaguars starting center Jason McGriff (JC transfer) only lasted 7 minutes vs Purdue before fouling out in his only real test of the season.  He also fouled out of their last game vs Alabama State and had four fouls in first game against a non Division 1 opponent.  South Alabama continues to be plagued by lack of rebounding (-7 margin vs Purdue) and turnovers (20 vs Purdue).  Both were big issues last year but so far they have not improved much.  South Alabama does have two talented backcourt players, but LMU top guard Brandon Worthy is just as talented and will neutralize at least one of them.  South Alabama has lost six straight non-conference road games and are just 3-11 on the road overall dating back to last season.  Head coach John Pelphrey has said that he plans to play a lot of players and experiment with different lineups early in the season.  Four of the current top six scorers were not on the team last year so chemistry will also be an early season issue.   

LMU won on the road at South Alabama last year and the two team's talent levels have not changed significantly enough to expect a reversal of that outcome, especially with the game being played in Los Angeles this year.  Home court advantage is huge for teams at this level.  Give the small number.