Pepperdine (+10) at CS Fullerton - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #535-536
Waves freshman point guard Michael Gerrity played a better game vs #3 UConn than anyone could have expected. He scored 19 points with 4 assists and had a number of very impressive plays. He almost single handedly kept Pepperdine close and is already being touted as the WCC freshman of the year. He makes everyone around him better and gives Pepperdine instant credibility. Backcourt mate Greg Barlow averaged 19.5ppg in the JC ranks last year and appears to be capable of averaging double digits at this level. Gerrity and Barlow just need to hold their own with the talented Fullerton backcourt because Pepperdine has significant size and talent advantages on the interior. Even with their best center Russell Hicks out with a broken foot, the Waves still have 6-11 sophomore Jarrad Henry and 6-9 junior Derick Grubb to play the position. Both players can rebound, block shots, and Grubb in particular is an offensive threat anywhere within 15 feet of the basket. Either player could start for Fullerton and they sometimes were on the court at the same time vs UConn. Freshman forwards 6-8 Chris Oakes and 6-7 Wille Galick are young but have showed much promise. Both will be a factor in this game.
Fullerton is the prohibitive preseason favorite to win the Big West but in my opinion they have just as much chance to finish 5th as they do to finish 1st. From what I have seen thus far there is not much separating them from UCSB, CSUN, and UC Irvine while Pacific is always a factor. Fullerton lost the heart and soul of their team in G/F Ralphy Holmes who led the conference in both scoring and rebounding. They also lost forward Japhet King, an important all around player, and frontline stalwart Hardy Asprilla who missed the last month of the season due to injury. This year they are starting the season without starting shooting guard Jermaine Harper (leg injury) which means they are without 4 of their top 6 scorers from a year ago. They have added East Carolina transfer Frank Robinson who will help and they are loaded in the backcourt, but only one proven frontcourt player returns in 6-7 senior Jamaal Brown who averaged 12.4ppg last year. I'm not convinced Brown will be as effective this year now that defenses will be able to focus on him more.
Pepperdine's inside players did not embarrass themselves at all against one of the best frontlines in the country. The Waves outscored UConn 32-24 in the paint and blocked 4 shots. They also had 11 of their own shots blocked, but they will have a much easier time tonight against a soft Fullerton interior. With only 2 true regulars from last season available, Fullerton should not be giving 10 in this spot, especially so early in the season. Take the points.
RAS Official Play: Pepperdine +10 1 UNIT
USC (+2.5) vs Oral Roberts - 8:30pm Pacific - Game #551-552
USC is coming off a disappointing overtime home loss to CSUN on Sunday but I am still very high on this team. They really had a lot of things work against them in the opener and I expect them to improve significantly from game one to game two. Trojan starting center Abdoulaye Ndiaye was limited to only 10 minutes due to foul trouble. The good news is that McDonald's All-American freshman center RouSean Cromwell emerged as a bona fide option. He took advantage of his longer than expected court time finishing with 17 points, 12 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 3 steals. Head coach Floyd never took him back out after he replaced Ndiaye in the second half. Sophomore standout Nick Young led USC with 18 points but was also had his playing time limited by foul trouble. CSUN's decisive first half run came with both Ndiaye and Young on the bench. USC's other sophomore standout Gabe Pruitt had a dreadful 3-for-20 shooting night including 0-for-10 from 3-point range. Pruitt shot 45% from 3-point range last year and took good shots, but just could not get any to fall. He is far too good of a player to struggle like that again. USC finished 4-of-27 from 3-point range for the game. Clearly the Trojans had some first game jitters and also were befuddled by CSUN's 1-3-1 zone press "junk defense" that the Matadors used for the majority of the game. Even with all of the above USC showed tremendous heart and determination to battle back from a 14 point deficit and force overtime. They even had a 3 point lead with the ball twice in OT but just could not close the deal.
Oral Roberts is certainly no slouch, they return 4 starters from a team that went 25-8 last year. However, the one starter lost was point guard Like Spencer-Gardner who was the school's all time assist leader and called the toughest player the staff has ever coached. He will be difficult to replace, especially early in the season. The Golden Eagles will draw a lot of attention from bettors due to last year's record and their solid performances in win over Georgetown and narrow losses at Hawaii and at Indiana last year, but they only played 5 top 150 RPI teams all season and went just 1-4 in those games. The lone win came over Georgetown early on. I expect them to have trouble with USC's athleticism. Oral Roberts started the season with a disappointing overtime home loss of their own to Utah State who lost at Middle Tennessee State two nights later. This may suggest ORU is not playing at their best right now.
It is easy to see that USC has a chip on their shoulder as most prognosticators pick them to finish last in the Pac-10. They are out to prove the critics wrong and I believe it is only a matter of time before they will. This is an underrated team and the national television audience only adds more chips to the pot. USC will have to work, but I expect them to win this outright. Take the points.
