3/1/07

Pacific at Cal Santa Barbara (-5) - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #531-532
UCSB was in contention for first place and had league leader LBSU on the ropes 2 1/2 weeks ago but blew the game late and lost their next two conference games as well at red hot Cal Poly and at CS Fullerton. They also lost a one point bracket buster game to Eastern Washington in-between in which they shot horribly and played without starting guard Joyner (hamstring). They got a much needed one point win at UCR last time out that should serve as a building block. The one point win over a last place team looks weak on paper but it was UCR's homecoming and UCSB led throughout the game. UCSB is 7-5 in conference with two home games left and can still grab the #3 seed in the BWT. Pacific is just 5-7 in conference with two road games left. They are coming off an emotional loss vs Long Beach on ESPN2 Monday and have very little chance of avoiding a day one game in the BWT. The Tigers were beaten soundly by UCSB in Stockton and have little chance of turning the tables tonight on the road. The Gauchos remain a top Big West contender in my book and will build momentum with a solid home win here. Give the points.

RAS Added Look: Cal Santa Barbara -5 1/2 UNIT  |  WIN 64-49

UC Irvine (+10.5) at Long Beach State - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #533-534
The Anteaters have played well at times this year and are much better than their recent form suggests. They leveled off a bit after falling out of contention in the league race and recently were given no favors by the schedule maker having to play four straight road games. Since then they have only played once in the past 12 days, an easy senior day home win over UC Davis, and as well coached as they are could be poised for a big effort tonight. Following last game Senior F/C Mark Kelley commented on LBS game, "That's going to be our biggest game of the season." Long Beach meanwhile has no incentive here having already clinched the regular season title and #1 conference tournament seed in a nationally televised win at Pacific on Monday night. LBS is 1-3 ATS last two years as a double digit favorite. UC Irvine proved they can compete by beating Long Beach State by four in wire to wire fashion a month ago. Expect the Anteaters to play well enough to keep this within single digits. Take the points.

RAS Added Look: UC Irvine +10.5 1/2 UNIT  |  WIN 80-85

USC at Washington (-2.5) - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #541-542
The Huskies might have played their best basketball of the season in two narrow losses to Washington State by 4 and at Pittsburgh by 4 two weeks ago. The two losses all but eliminated them from NCAA at-large consideration and the disappointment carried over to back to back losses at Oregon State and Oregon last week. They now return home for the first time in four games where they are 15-2 and face a USC team who they matched up very well with in OT loss in Los Angeles back in late December. USC partied hard after homestand sweep of Stanford and Cal on senior night last weekend. They are now a lock for an NCAA bid, a monumental preseason goal for them, and only have seeding left to play for. Starting guard Gabe Pruitt watched practice from the stands on Tuesday as punishment for sleeping in and missing class Monday serves as an example of the team's attitude right now. The Trojans are just 2-3 in their last five Pac-10 road games and Tim Floyd accurately calls the Washington trip the toughest in the Pac-10. Give the small number.

RAS Added Look: Washington -2.5 1/2 UNIT  |  WIN 85-70

3/8/07

Clemson vs Florida State (+1.5) - 9:00am Pacific - Game #821-822
Florida State was beginning to play their best ball of the season in mid January as they won five of six conference games including a 17 point win over Maryland and a road win at Duke. Auburn transfer point guard Toney Douglas was a big part of the team's upswing but a wrist injury caused him to miss five key games down the stretch. FSU managed just a 1-4 record without him but all four were vs projected NCAA teams and three of the losses came by a combined 10 points. Douglas returned in last game to play 32 minutes and should be near full strength by tip-off of this one. The Seminoles purposely scheduled a non-conference game vs Providence, a game they won by 30, here in Tampa in late December so they would be one of few teams to have familiarity with the arena. Playing just four hours from campus is also a plus for them today. Florida State will be seeking double revenge for two regular season losses vs Clemson this year. The Tigers are just 4-9 in their last 13 games with no excuses. They needed OT to beat a depleted Miami team at Little John just two games back. Junior forward Sam Perry, a starter three games ago, has played just 5 minutes combined in last two games leaving Clemson with very little quality depth. FSU badly wants a win here for senior Al Thorton who finished second in ACC POY voting and has never made it to the big dance. Expect the Seminoles to advance.

RAS Added Look: Florida State +1.5 1/2 UNIT  |  WIN 66-67

3/9/07

Wyoming (+7.5) vs BYU - 6:00pm Pacific - Game 573-574
Upstart Wyoming led Air Force nearly start to finish in a decisive win on Thursday. The victory gives them a big confidence and momentum boost heading into this matchup with #1 seed BYU. In two regular season meetings, Wyoming lost by only 8 at BYU and by only 4 at home. In the more recent home game Wyoming managed to stay competitive and even led for 3/4 of the game despite being without the services of starting center Daaron Brown (ankle) and starting forward Joseph Taylor. Brown & Taylor rank first and second on the team in rebounding and are key defensive cogs. With Brown in the lineup Wyoming is now 7-4 vs MWC opponents (two losses by 2 points) and own wins over three (UNLV, SDSU, Air Force) of the top four teams in the league. Talented Cowboy guard tandem of Brad Jones and Brandon Ewing is ideal for pressure packed tournament play. BYU has played very well over the past several weeks but is always less dangerous away from home. The Cougars are an NCAA tournament lock and have very little to play for here. These two teams are much more even than they look on paper. The line is too high for a dog favoring neutral court game. Take the points.

RAS Added Look: Wyoming +7.5 1/2 UNIT (Released late Thursday night)  |  LOSS 84-96

LSU vs Ole Miss (+3) - 6:45pm Pacific - Game #547-548
Ole Miss had their best season in years and is just 1 win shy of the 20 win plateau. Their energy level was not as high in the final weeks of the season as they wore down a bit but they have still gone 6-3 in their last nine games and with five days off should be re-energized for tonight. The Rebels have three senior guards, including arguably the SEC's top point guard, which is invaluable this time of year and head coach Andy Kennedy was just named SEC coach of the year. LSU is coming off a tough OT win over Tennessee last night. It will be particularly tough for leading scorer Glen Davis to play back to back games. Davis (quad) had missed three games and came off the bench in two others before starting for the first time in three weeks last night. Even when Davis was healthy, LSU had lost 8 of 9 SEC games at one point and finished the season three full games back of Ole Miss in the SEC West standings. The Rebels have a good chance of an outright win here. Take the points.

RAS Added Look: Ole Miss +3 1/2 UNIT  |  WIN 80-60

CS Fullerton at Cal Poly (+1) - 9:00pm Pacific - Game #579-580
Cal Poly finished the season as the hottest team in the Big West. They have won seven straight and 12 of 14 overall. In their only two losses over the past 14 games they had at least one starter out due to injury. They have almost all key players back from last years team that gave Pacific a run for their money in the BWT semi-final but this year they have much more depth and experience. Cal Poly beat this same Fullerton team on the road by 10 about two weeks ago. The Titans struggled down the stretch losing four of their last five regular season games and last night were extremely fortunate to get by Pacific in double OT. Pacific blew the game by shooting 16-for-34 from the free throw line. Fullerton is very limited by their lack of size and depth inside and just give up way too many easy baskets. Having to play a double OT game last night will not help their chances either. The wrong team is favored here.

RAS Added Look: Cal Poly +1 1/2 UNIT  |  WIN 81-56

3/17/07

Butler (+5.5) vs Maryland - 12:20pm Pacific - Game #719-720
Butler is not getting their due respect in the NCAA tournament. They covered easily in 11 point win over Old Dominion on Thursday and yet despite being a #5 seed are a significant underdog here vs #4 seed Maryland. Butler already owns wins this year over Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee, and Gonzaga so they will not be intimidated by a big name opponent. The Bulldogs play outstanding defense, shoot very well, control tempo and do not turn the ball over. They have an uncanny ability to find open 3-point looks even when opposing defenses make a point to prevent them. Junior backcourt tandem of A.J. Graves & Mike Green is a special one and the starting frontcourt is made up of three seniors. Maryland was very fortunate to get by Davidson in the first round. The 12 point final margin was very misleading as the Terps played very sloppy and exhibited questionable decision making throughout the game. Maryland has two freshman playing key minutes at guard, including their starting point guard, and have committed 38 turnovers in their two postseason games. They have also struggled behind the arc going 9 of 35 in the same two games. If they do not improve both numbers drastically they will lose this outright. ACC teams have looked suspect so far going 3-4 ATS even with some favorable matchups. Butler is a live dog is this spot. Take the points.

RAS Added Look: Butler +5.5 1/2 UNIT  |  WIN 62-59

3/18/07

Nevada (+5.5) vs Memphis - 1:45pm Pacific - Game #523-524
Nevada got a big overtime win over a tough Creighton team on Friday. It should do a lot for their confidence after losing as a big favorite in the first round last year. This is a very experienced team with an NBA type talent in senior F/C Nick Fazekas who is a deadly scorer. The supporting cast is underrated with a trio of upperclassmen guards Kemp, Sessions, and Shiloh that are solid on both ends of the court and should be able to handle the Memphis pressure. The Wolfpack were able to win Friday despite Fazekas being limited by foul trouble. Nevada has been one of the better road teams in the country over the past few seasons (21-6 past two years) and are a combined 56-10 overall since the start of last season. They would have been seeded much higher if not for two late season losses in double OT at Utah State and again vs Utah State (without Shiloh) in the WAC semifinals. C-USA was a joke this year so no one really knows how good Memphis is. They did go just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS vs teams in the NCAA tournament. Most recently they needed OT to beat a Gonzaga team by 1 point that was depleted by suspension, injury, and foul trouble. The Tigers are still too much of a question mark to be giving -5.5 points to a very good Nevada team. Take the points.

RAS Added Look: Nevada +5.5 1/2 UNIT | LOSS 62-78

3/22/07

Pittsburgh (+3) vs UCLA - 6:40pm Pacific - Game #667-668
Pitt has been one of the most unheralded teams in this NCAA tournament. They are sitting at 29-7 overall, went 12-4 in the rugged Big East, and played an ambitious non-conference schedule that included a trip to Wisconsin. After dominating for most of the game they fell apart late vs upstart VCU in round two but were still able to recover and prevail in overtime. Pitt head coach Jamie Dixon may not admit it, but the entire program has been waiting for a chance to face UCLA head coach Ben Howland ever since he left Pitt abrubtly to take the UCLA job four years ago despite leading everyone to believe he would stay for years to come. This is a huge game for not only Dixon, but the entire Pitt coaching staff, and the players are well aware of it. In situations where the coaches are so familiar with one another, it favors the underdog. Last year UCLA improved as the season went along and entered the NCAA tournament on a 10-1 ATS run. This year after starting 14-0 SU and 9-3 ATS, they are just 14-5 SU and 7-12 ATS in last 19 games. They were upset as a big favorite in the opening round of the Pac-10 tournament (historically an ominous sign) and failed to make a field goal in the final 5 1/2 minutes vs Indiana in round two. They were able to escape at the free throw line thanks to several questionable touch fouls. The Bruins made it all the way to the title game last year but a similar run is highly unlikely. Pitt meanwhile has never advanced beyond the Sweet 16 under Howland or Dixon. Expect the Panthers to play much better than most expect. Take the points.

RAS Added Look: Pittsburgh +3 1/2 UNIT |  LOSS 55-64

3/23/07

Vanderbilt vs Georgetown (Over 131) - 4:25pm Pacific - Game #825-826
Oddsmakers are still posting low totals for Vanderbilt. Granted, they did need OT to go over in second round game vs plodding Washington State, but the game was on pace to go well over the total until an uncanny 11 points were scored in the final 7+ minutes of regulation. As reported last week, only one Vandy game all season has finished under 132 points, and the game vs Washington State was the first Vandy total all season that was listed below 135. For the season Vandy games are averaging 144ppg not including OT scoring. Georgetown games average 125.5 for the season. In early season meeting between these two 156 points were scored despite VU's Shan Foster going 0-5 for 2 pts, GU's Jeff Green being limited to 23 minutes, 17 free throws being missed, and the teams shooting just 9-for-33 from 3-point range. That was even before Vanderbilt switched to a four guard lineup, and started to rely more on 3-point shooting. Even if this game ends up being played at a less than desired tempo, both offenses should perform efficently. Vanderbilt is a tremendous shooting team that can spread the floor well and Georgetown will have a big size & strength advantage inside. Play the over.

RAS Added Look: Over 131 1/2 UNIT | PUSH 65-66, 131

3/25/07

Oregon vs Florida (Over 142) - 11:40am Pacific - Game #721-722
Oregon was finally able to play close to their desired uptempo pace Friday night vs UNLV. The two teams combined for 122 FG attempts and 36 FT attempts and still went over the closing total by 8 points despite a 10+ minute stretch of the second half where only 21 points were scored after Oregon had opened up a 15 point lead. During the post game press conference Oregon head coach Ernie Kent was emphatic about the need for his team to get up and down the court quickly. The Ducks just cannot compete with upper tier teams playing half-court basketball and this is especially true against a team like Florida who has two dominant post players in Joakim Noah and Al Horford. Oregon has allowed 77.3ppg in their seven straight up losses this season. The Gators have averaged 80.3ppg in their six postseason games so far and have no problem playing at an above average tempo. Florida has been criticized for their slow starts in each of their first three NCAA tournament games and will be looking to get off to a quick start here. The first half over (66.5/67) is also worth considering. Expect this to get over the total.

RAS Added Look: Over 142 1/2 UNIT  |  WIN 77-85, 162

3/31/07

Ohio State vs Georgetown (Under 130) - 3:05pm Pacific - Game #759-760
These are two very good defensive teams. Georgetown ranks 9th and 5th nationally in scoring and field goal percentage defense respectively, while Ohio State has very solid rankings of 28th and 20th. Both teams have had higher than usual scoring games in the NCAA tournament thus far but that can almost all be attributed to the opponents they have faced. Georgetown's last two games were against Vanderbilt and North Carolina, while Ohio State has faced Xavier, Tennessee, and Memphis. All five mentioned opponents rank in the top 40 nationally in scoring offense. When matched up against defensive minded opponents, Georgetown and Ohio State have played some ugly low scoring games this year. Combined they have played 22 games (GT 15, OSU 7) that have gone under 120. Each team has one of the premier shotblockers in the country which will make drives to the basket and inside points harder to come by. Both teams will likely play more zone defense than usual to keep their foul prone big men on the floor. In Ohio State's case the zone will also help take away Georgetown's Princeton style backdoor cuts, and in Georgetown's case the zone will help them to keep up with Ohio State's overall team speed. No player on the court has been past the Sweet 16 before this year so on the grand stage of the final four there figures to be some nerves early on. It is also the first time both team's will be playing at the Georgia Dome where the shooting background can sometimes be a factor. Both teams are capable of scoring droughts even under normal conditions. There are some 130.5's available as of this writing and the first half under 60 is also worth a look.

RAS Added Look: Under 130 1/2 UNIT  |  WIN 60-67, 127

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