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November 8 Sheet

California (+4.5) at Arizona State - 3:30pm Pacific
Bears head coach Jeff Tedford has done an incredible job turning this program around in such a short period of time. He really should be considered for national coach of the year. Cal was 1-10 last year and opponents outscored them by an average of 39 to 18. This year they are at 5-4 and have outscored their opponents by an average of 33 to 24 with basically all the same players. They are even better than their 5-4 record indicates. Seven of their nine opponents have been ranked at one point this season and they have played the 11th most difficult schedule in the nation according to the Sagarin ratings. Cal has already played both the 1st & 2nd placed Pac-10 teams, losing by 10 to Washington State and by just 2 at USC. They led WSU 21-6 in the first half, and led USC 21-3 in the first half. The Cougars also benefited from a blocked punt for a TD. In contrast, ASU (strength of schedule ranking of 41) was thrashed by Washington State 44-22 and the game (37-8 entering 4th quarter) was not even that close. ASU has not yet played USC. Advantage Cal.

Under Tedford Cal has gotten off to some incredibly fast starts. They have scored first in every game this season and have led at half-time in 8 of 9. Cal has outscored their opponents by an amazing average of 20.3 to 8.7 in the first half of games this year. This leads me to believe that Tedford has great preparation skills. This is critical as Cal is coming off their first BYE week of the season. It will be Tedford's debut as a head coach off a BYE week, but he was last an assistant coach at Oregon where the Ducks have covered an amazing 11 of their last 13 games following BYE weeks. Tedford (offensive coordinator last 4 years at Oregon, 38-10 overall record in that span) had to have had some role in that success. Advantage Cal.

Cal & ASU share three common opponents this season. As mentioned above, the Bears played WSU very closely, ASU was blown out. ASU narrowly beat Oregon State, while Cal lost to the Beavers by 11. However, ASU got OSU at home, while Cal played at OSU when the Beavers were off a BYE week following three straight defeats. Huge difference. Lastly, Cal won at Washington by 4, and ASU beat Washington by 11 in Tempe. Advantage Cal.

Cal's offense has committed just 11 turnovers this season, 9th best in the country. ASU has turned the ball over 24 times, worst in the Pac-10. Luckily for ASU, their opponents have turned the ball over 30 times (tops in Pac-10), that is 3 per game! Do not expect their good fortune to last forever. The Bears rank second in Pac-10 red zone offense, having converted 34 of 37 scoring opportunities (91.9%). Conversely, opponents have scored on only 23 of 33 (69.7%) red zone chances. QB Kyle Boller has been sacked only 17 times. These stats are no mistake, in 2001 Tedford's Ducks turned the ball over a NCAA-low 11 times and led the Pac-10 in both fewest sacks (11) and best red zone offense (37-of-39, 94.9%). Cal senior QB Boller will be making his 37th career start, ASU sophomore QB Andrew Walter will be making just his 7th career start. Advantage Cal.

ASU's offensive stats have been somewhat skewed by lack of quality opposition defense. Versus the 6 worst defenses (Eastern Wash, Central Florida, San Diego State, North Carolina, Oregon, Stanford) they have faced this year they are averaging 44.6 points per game, but vs the 4 best defenses they have faced (Nebraska, Washington, Washington State, and Oregon State) they are averaging just 18 points per game. In that entire group, only Oregon State is ranked in the top 40 nationally in total defense. ASU has faced 8 teams who give up 350 yards per game or more, Cal has faced only three. Yet, ASU has only scored 0.56 more points per game this season. Advantage Cal.

Cal is a senior dominated team with 14 senior starters. On the contrary, ASU is a very young team. The Sun Devils have 24 underclassmen in their 2 deep, 9 of whom are starters, and only have 4 senior starters.

Cal has not had a winning season since 1993, and have not played in a bowl game since 1996. A win here would make them bowl eligible pending an appeal of their postseason ban to the NCAA which as a good chance of succeeding. This team has had an incredible amount of positive energy flowing all season. They have come such a long way from a 3-8 season in 1999 and a 1-10 season in 2000 that they are not about to rest, they are still very hungry. Cal has three very winnable Pac-10 games left on their schedule and should wind up third in the Pac-10 standings, far better than their preseason ranking of 9th. Bears reportedly returned to practice this week with a spring in their step. I am eager to see super coach Tedford's team play off the BYE week. The time off has allowed injuries to heal, most notably at WR and in the secondary. ASU meanwhile may still be wondering what happened at Washington State last week and will be playing their seventh consecutive week of football without a BYE week. Sundevils are very thin at the LB position with starter Josh Amobi out and backup Jamar Williams "?". Starting RG Adrian Ayala will miss at least two weeks (replacement is a true freshman) with an ankle injury. FS Matt Fawley (4 starts this year) has been cleared to play, but has a broken arm. All signs point to the Bears.

California  2 UNITS

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