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January 9 Sheet

Oregon at Cal (+2.5) - 7:00pm Pacific
Bears head into this game at 8-2 with only losses to Georgia in Anaheim and Kansas in Oakland. They opened Pac-10 conference play with a resounding 72-59 win over Stanford. I wrote early in the year how Cal may get off to a slow start this season, but they have gelled pretty well and are playing solid basketball right now.

Cal is led by senior forward Joe Shipp (19.0ppg, 5.7rpg, 2.4apg). He seems to invent new ways to score in each game. Sophomore center Amit Tamir (16.4ppg, 7.1rpg, 3.2apg) may be the best 3-point shooting big man in the country. He leads the team with 2.2 made 3-point shots per game. He is having a breakout season. Senior guard Brian Wethers (14.2ppg, 5.2rpg, 3.2apg) is another guy who does many things well and is very athletic. Freshman point guard Richard Midgley has taken over the starting position while A.J. Diggs has returned to his more comfortable reserve roll. Diggs is one of the best ball hawkers in the country (2.8 steals per game in 27.2 minutes).

I am just not comfortable with Oregon right now. Last years Elite 8 run was a huge for them but they just do not seem to have the same magic this season. The 25 point loss to Cincinnati was disturbing enough but then they followed it up by being taken down to the wire (very tight game in final minutes) at home by Minnesota. They then were beaten at home by Arizona (minus Walton & Bynum, outrebounded 50-28) which had to take more wind out of their sails. Even Arizona State (up 6 at half) led at Oregon until a 25-2 run and 81% shooting in second half enabled the Ducks to run away with it. The Ducks only other true road game this season was at Pepperdine. The Waves were decimated by injuries and foul trouble and played right into the hands of Oregon by playing a run and gun tempo but it was still a tough game.

Cal has an 11 game home win streak (6-0 this season) and is 48-11 (.814) all-time at Haas Pavilion since it opened in November of 1999. The Bears won in double OT here last season. Cal is probably at the same level or perhaps slightly improved, but Oregon is not as good as they were last season. I expect another straight up win tonight. Cal is very well coached by Ben Braun and are sound both offensively and defensively. Take the points.

California  1 UNIT

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