Return to Previous Week Page

September 27 Sheet

Alabama (+6) at Arkansas - 4:45pm - Saturday
Have to give credit to 2nd year Crimson Tide head coach Dennis Franchione. He is doing a much better job than most people realize. Bama went just 3-8 in 2000, but in his first season went 7-5 last year despite 10 of their 12 opponents reaching bowls. They beat 5 bowl bound teams last year compared to Arkansas who only beat 2 despite identical win/loss records. Additionally, Bama was in every single game they played. They outgained UCLA by 167 yards in a 3 point season opening loss. In their other four losses they led each game (at South Carolina by 12, at Ole Miss by 4, vs Tennessee by 3, and vs LSU by 7) midway through the 4th quarter!

This years Bama team is even better. They are in the second year of the new coaching staff's systems. They return 9 starters on offense and 8 on defense. They are much deeper and more experienced than last year which should enable them to finish out the close games better. Their appeal to have their postseason ban removed was just recently denied so the team is playing every big regular season game like it is their last. The Arkansas game is only less important to them than Auburn & Tennessee. This has become a fierce rivalry as fans and coaching staffs do not like each other.

The Tide showed what they are capable of in their performance at #2 Oklahoma three weeks ago in which they scored 24 unanswered points in the second half to take a 4 point lead midway through the 4th quarter. They completely had Oklahoma's offense stymied and looked to be well on their way to a big win. The Sooners were held to just 23 yards in 23 rush attempts, but were saved by two huge shovel passes to RB Renaldo Works that went for a combined 62 yards on the decisive OU scoring drive. Prior to those, it really looked like OU had no chance at gaining even a first down. OU added a fumble return for a TD to make for a misleading 37-27 final score.

Last week Bama dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against a very decent if not very good Southern Miss team. The Golden Eagles had out rushed Illinois & Memphis by a combined average of 278.5 to 150.5 in their prior two games, but were out rushed a whopping 351 to 35 by Alabama! USM's only points came on a fluke play 53 yard interception return. USM managed just 145 total yards of offense. They had averaged 458 yards per game in their first three. Clearly the Tide have one of the best run defenses in the country under defensive coordinator Carl Torbush who was responsible for UNC's dominating defenses in 1995-97.

Boise State and South Florida rushed for more yards vs Arkansas this season than Oklahoma and Southern Miss did vs Alabama. Not much is known about this years Arkansas team because they have not played anyone yet. They were beaten 31-10 by Alabama last year, and return less starters than the Tide. On defense Arkansas lost 1st team All-American LB Jermaine Petty and his team leading 150 tackles (14 for loss), and perhaps more importantly highly regarded defensive coordinator John Thompson left to take the same position at Florida. On offense they break in a new full time starter at QB and must replace three offensive line starters who each were three year starters.

Alabama starting QB Tyler Watts hurt an ankle vs Southern Miss and is listed as questionable for the game. My best information says that Watts might be available to play but that redshirt freshman Brodie Croyle is expected to get the start. Croyle (rated #2 HS QB in the country two years ago) is even more highly touted than Watts was when he came out of high school. He played almost three quarters last week vs Southern Miss and even played a series at OU. His numbers so far are unimpressive but he is much better than what the current stats indicate. His ability to practice with the first team this week will have him ready for a good showing. The coaching staff is sure to put in plays to suit Croyle's mobility. The offensive line and running game is strong enough to take pressure off the QB. Even with the loss to senior RB Galloway, the Tide have more than capable runners. I am confident that Bama can win with either QB. If anything this situation could be an advantage as Arkansas now has two different QB's to prepare for.

Alabama is 3-0 ATS as a road dog under Franchione, they went just 1-2 straight up but easily could have won all three. I look for Bama to win this game outright. If the Tide can outrush OU by a 4:1 ratio and Southern Miss by a 10:1 ratio, no doubt they should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides and outrush Arkansas. It may be a good idea to wait until game day to place wagers. If it is announced that QB Watts will not start, we could easily get a +6.5, or +7 here. I would also consider playing Alabama small on the money line (currently +200 at Olympic).

Alabama  2 UNITS

Return to Previous Week Page

Live Chat & Posting Forum for Sports Bettors: BettingChat.com - BettingTalk.com

COLLEGE SPORTS BETTING INFORMATION NETWORK
INFOWINS.COM

DO YOU HAVE INFORMATION TO SHARE ON YOUR FAVORITE COLLEGE TEAM?

Apply to become a contributor at INFOWIN$ and get the most valuable, comprehensive, and timely college sports handicapping information available anywhere!  Click here to visit.