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February 5 Sheet

Ole Miss at Auburn (-5) - 5:00pm Pacific
Cliff Ellis has called this his most talented team at Auburn since his 98-99 Tigers team that won 29 games and finished with an RPI rank of 8. As I touched on earlier in the season, Ellis gave lots of playing time to several freshman last year and this year is getting solid production out of four sophomores.

Auburn started this season at 15-2, but have since lost three straight games. They played better than looked in losses at Kentucky (2 point game with 10 minutes left, but 24 turnovers and 2-of-14 3-point shooting did them in) and at Georgia (led by 1 with 9 minutes left, lost by 6). Not many teams will win at Kentucky or Georgia this season. Auburn then had a one week hiatus and came out flat vs Tennessee. They fell behind by double digits in the first half, rallied in the second half but still lost at home to a good Tennessee team by 3. They should be set for a breakout performance tonight.

Auburn's early success has come despite playing the first 13 games of the season without standout sophomore forward Brandon Robinson who is one of the better players on the team. Robinson finally became eligible 7 games back and has given the team a big lift. He still has not started a game but his minutes are increasing. In his last four games he has averaged 15.2ppg & 6.5rpg. Sophomore guard Nathan Watson missed the first 6 games of the season but has since come on to become a reliable contributor off the bench. He averages over 20 minutes per game, 7.7 points, 2 assists, and 1.5 steals. Fellow sophomores power forward Marco Killingsworth (15.0ppg, 6.7rpg, SEC best 61% FG) & point guard Lewis Monroe (3.5apg) both are starters and have progressed nicely. Junior center Kyle Davis is one of the nations top shotblockers (3.8bpg, 2nd in country) and will easily control the Ole Miss frontcourt in the paint. Davis was limited to just 15 minutes due to foul trouble vs Tennessee in last game. Senior off guard Derrick Bird (10.1ppg) is a nice compliment to the offense but is better known for his defensive prowess (College Insider All-American defensive 1st team last season). He will draw the defensive assignment of Rebels leading backcourt scorer Aaron Harper (shot 6-for-22, .272 in 2 games vs Auburn last season). Do it all senior forward Marquis Daniels rounds out the starting five. Daniels leads the SEC in scoring at 18.3ppg while also contributing 6.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.5 steals per game!

Ole Miss struggles on the road continue. Last year they went 1-7 in SEC road games. Capable floor leader Jason Harrison has graduated and teams usually do not improve on the road after losing their point guard. This year they are 2-4 (wins at LSU & George Mason) in road games overall, 1-1 in conference play. They are now 4-12 ATS in last 16 road games! They are coming off two straight losses that include a heartbreaker at home to Miss State and a noncompetitive loss at Vanderbilt. This is their first back to back road test of the season. Rebels will next host Kentucky on Saturday and could be looking ahead. Ole Miss has a solid team but just does not have any real imposing players. Auburn matches up very well with the Rebels top two scorers (Reed & Harper). No one else on the team averages in double figures.

Auburn is an underrated team and is better than Ole Miss. They lead the SEC in both FG% shooting and FG% defense. With home court advantage they should be giving more than -5 points in this spot. Youth night (all kids 12 & under free) will ensure a noisy and at or near capacity crowd (limited number of seats available as of Tuesday morning). Auburn is coming off three straight losses but were competitive in all three games vs better teams. Ole Miss is not much, especially on the road. This is a key game for the Tigers. Expect a convincing win.

Auburn  1 UNIT

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