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September 19 Sheet

Arizona State (+8) at Iowa - 3:00pm Pacific
The Sun Devils are poised for a big season.  Last year they only returned four starters on offense including two new QB's that rotated early in the season.  They still averaged 32.3 points per game.  In the fourth game, then sophomore QB Andrew Walter took over down 22-0 at San Diego State and led ASU to a 39-28 come from behind win and has been the starter ever since.  Walter ended up breaking a school record with 3877 passing yards and 28 touchdowns despite only starting eight games.  He is now a junior and considered a Heisman candidate.  He should flourish in his second full season as a starter.  The offense returns nine starters in all.  The offensive line returns fully in tact, the top three leading rushers are back, and although they lost two of their top three receivers, they have three very capable ones returning.
 
The Sun Devils have not been a strong defensive team in recent years and they lost two players to the NFL from last year's unit.  On the bright side, they suffered numerous injuries, bumps, and bruises last season that allowed them to develop some excellent depth.  They return seven defensive starters and this will be a very speedy unit.  The players are fast as it is, but ASU runs a 4-2-5 scheme that puts an extra emphasis on speed by having an additional defensive back in place of a linebacker.  This will be the third season in the new system and players should have a full grasp of it by now.  Despite the loss of some key individuals, this will be a more effective group.   
 
Iowa comes in 3-0 and fresh off a super 11-2 season.  They have yet to be tested by a quality opponent this year and still have plenty of question marks on offense after having to fill some huge holes.  Heisman runner up QB Brad Banks, four offensive line starters (including three NFL picks), and two of their top three receivers (including all-American TE Dallas Clark, 1st round NFL pick) are gone from last season.  Defensively, the Hawkeye’s return seven starters but three of the top four tacklers from last season graduated. 
 
The Hawkeye’s currently have some serious injury concerns.  Standout RB and return man Jermelle Lewis has not played a down yet this season due to injury.  Projected third string RB Albert Young has not played either.  Senior WR Maurice Brown (led the team in receptions, yardage, and touchdowns last year) will not play due to an ankle injury suffered vs Iowa State last week.  This is a huge blow to the Hawkeye offense as Brown is clearly their go to guy.  Despite missing the second half of Iowa State game, Brown still leads the team with 14 receptions for 212 yards in three games.  No one else on the team has more than three receptions for 33 yards.  Brown also accounts for three of Iowa's five touchdown catches.  On defense, strong safety Bob Sanders (leading returning tackler, 1st team Big 10) has missed the last two games due to a foot injury.  He underwent surgery last week and the earliest he will return is in two weeks vs Michigan State.  Iowa has already had more starters miss games this year then they did all of last season.  Lewis, Brown, and Sanders are three of the best, if not the best Hawkeye players on the team. 
 
Iowa is coming off a seemingly impressive 40-21 win over Iowa State last week.  The Hawkeye’s were sky high for this game.  They were not only out to avenge an unlikely come from behind win by the Cyclones last year that cost them an undefeated regular season, but the Iowa seniors had never beaten their instate rival.  The Cyclones had won five straight in the series.  ISU started a redshirt freshman at QB and shot themselves in the foot throughout the game.  Iowa was substantially outgained, had 12 fewer first downs and possessed the ball for nine fewer minutes than did Iowa State, but the Hawkeye’s won by 19 thanks to two blocked punts and two turnovers that led directly to scores.  Neither team was impressive. 
 
Iowa's defense was burned badly by USC last year in the Orange bowl.  They have a history of struggles vs strong passing teams.  Lucky for them they do not see many in the Big 10.  Although the Hawkeye defense was successful against a good QB in their first game vs Miami Ohio this year, ASU is an entirely different kind of animal.  Also, against the Red Hawks, Iowa had the services of stud strong safety Bob Sanders, vs ASU they will not. 
 
The Sun Devils have been somewhat unimpressive vs two cupcakes to start the season but they have undoubtedly shown very little of their packages on either side of the ball with big games vs Iowa and Pac-10 foes on tap.  They lost three fumbles in the first half vs Utah State last week in a lackluster 26-16 win.  They will not be lackluster vs Big 10 opponent in front on national television audience here.  They also did not play four starters in last game but all will be back for this game.  Arizona State finished 8-6 and gave Kansas State a run for their money in last years Holiday Bowl as a +18 dog.  Their strength and conditioning coach has done a great job here winning national award in 2002.  ASU head coach Dirk Koetter is an offensive guru.  In his first two seasons here his teams have averaged 34.0ppg & 32.3ppg.  He has never had more than 7 returning starters on offense, this year he has 9.  He has never had a starting QB return for a second year in his system, this year he has a Heisman candidate returning.  There is no doubt that ASU will put up points.  The question is can a suspect Iowa offense with their top playmaker out trade points with the Sun Devils?  I suspect not.  Take the points here and give a long look at the money line.
 
Arizona State  2 UNITS

 
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